Even though Congressional leaders in the House have floated the idea of passing a one-week funding bill, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid rejected the idea Wednesday. Republicans are looking for $40 billion in budget cuts while Democrats are only willing to consider $33 billion in cuts. Democrats also argue that the cuts Republicans are demanding are ideologically driven, pointing to cuts to organizations such as Planned Parenthood and National Public Radio.

If the government does shut down, about 800,000 federal government employees can expect to be furloughed. The shutdown would also stop paychecks to military members, though Sens. Robert P. Casey (D-Pa) and Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) are the lead sponsors of a bill that would ensure soldiers continue to be paid through Sept. 30, the end of the fiscal year.

Despite all of the potential negative consequences of a government shutdown and the fact that a 1995 shutdown actually cost $1.25 billion, the Tea Party faction has been practically screaming for a shutdown of what they consider a bloated bureaucracy.

With that in mind, here is a rundown on Pennsylvania’s Congressional Delegation stands on a possible shutdown. It is difficult to find any overt support for a government shutdown, though Rep. Lou Barletta is on record saying that his constituents may support a shutdown if that’s what it takes to rein in spending. One common theme is that Republicans (and even one Democrat) blame the Democratic-controlled Senate for not passing a budget last year. In December, Talking Points Memo noted that nine Senate Republicans walked away from their support of an omnibus spending bill that had been negotiated for months.

Senator Robert Casey (D): In addition to his sponsorship of the military pay bill, Casey joined 15 other moderate Democrats in signing a letter to House Speaker John Boehner urging him to avoid a shutdown. The letter calls a shutdown “irresponsible” and notes it would distract from a focus on creating jobs and reducing the debt. It also accuses Republicans of using the possible shutdown to make a political point.

Senator Pat Toomey (R): Toomey told the Allentown Morning Call that a government shutdown is “not okay” and no way to run a government. However, he also blamed the last Congress, of which he was not a part, for its failure to pass a budget on time. Toomey made similar statements in February when Congress was considering a short-term continuing resolution.

Robert Brady (D PA-01): We could not find a definitive statement on the looming shutdown from Brady. He did vote for the latest stop-gap measure that funds the government through April 8. He also supports measures that would devote any unused portion of a member’s Representational Allowance to reducing the deficit.

Chaka Fattah (D PA-02): Fattah posted a link on Facebook and Twitter linking to a poll that shows most Americans don’t want to see a government shutdown. He also wrote a post for the Huffington Post detailing his plan to eliminate the $14.3 trillion national debt in 10 years. He called for a one percent tax on the $445 in transactions that go through the Federal Reserve.

Mike Kelly (R PA-03): Kelly voted in favor of HR 1225, the constitutionally questionable bill that would declare HR 1, the Republican-sponsored budget that would cut $61.5 billion, to be the final bill from Congress should the Senate fail to pass a budget. Kelly blames the Senate for not passing a budget last year. The liberal blogosphere also called Kelly on his claim that a shutdown would not disrupt Social Security and Medicare benefits.

Jason Altmire (D PA-04): The National Republican Congressional Committee attacked Altmire for his comments on Fox News March 31 that Democrats are to blame for not passing a budget on time last year. During a recent town hall meeting, Altmire praised a shift in thinking from spending to cutting, but warned against haphazard cuts.

Glenn “GT” Thompson (R PA-05): Thompson spoke on the House Floor April 5 and blamed the inaction of the Senate for failing to pass a budget and railed about running the government on continuing resolutions. “Even if we all agree a program is efficient and needed, we can’t spend money we don’t have,” he said. He has been clear that a government shutdown would be costly and unproductive. The Center Daily Times reported that 18 Tea Party members protested Thompson’s vote on the March temporary funding bill.

Jim Gerlach (R PA-06): Gerlach also voted for the temporary funding measure and blamed Senate Democrats for not passing a budget. He is not in favor of a shutdown, saying, “Job creators need certainty to start hiring again, not one more countdown to a federal government shutdown.”

Pat Meehan (R PA-07): Meehan held a town hall meeting in March where he argued that a government shutdown would not be beneficial when a resident challenged opponents of the Affordable Care Act to do so. Still, Meehan is in favor of the Republicans’ 2012 spending plan which would cut $6.2 trillion over 10 years but has been largely panned by the left for its cuts to Medicare and Medicaid. He has also released a statement defending his vote to defund NPR.

Michael Fitzpatrick (R PA-08): Fitzpatrick also blamed Senate Democrats for not passing a budget. “The American people and job creators should no longer be held hostage to the Senate’s inaction on the federal budget,” he wrote in a press release. His press release on the Republican budget proposal was less committal than Meehan, urging his constituents to get familiar with the plan and “and be active participants in this national discussion.”

Bill Shuster (R PA-09): A spokesperson for Shuster told the Johnstown Tribune-Democrat that the Congressman hopes to avoid a shutdown. He also posted a video talking about the dangers of increasing federal government spending.

Tom Marino (R PA-10): Marino told the Sunbury Daily Item that Republicans do not want to shut down the government and called on the Senate to pass HR 1. He also posted a message on his Facebook page supporting the proposal to pay soldiers in the event of a shutdown.

Lou Barletta (R PA-11): On March 28, Barletta announced that he would not support any more stop-gap spending measures. “Stringing together short-term continuing resolutions only extends the uncertainty among local and national job creators, and that will slow our economic recovery at home,” he wrote in the press release. He also told the Morning Call that he thinks his constituents want to see the federal government reduce spending and might support a shutdown if that’s what it takes.

Mark Critz (D PA-12): Critz called on Congress to end “the partisan bickering and finalize a responsible budget.” However, if the government would shut down, he is co-sponsoring the House bill that would deny a paycheck to members of Congress. Critz also railed against the Republicans’ spending plan, saying it hurts senior citizens while keeping in place tax cuts for the wealthy and oil company subsidies.

Allyson Schwartz (D PA-13): Schwartz agrees that the government should be making cuts in spending, but has called the proposed Republican spending cuts, “reckless.” She also says that the Republicans’ 2012 budget would not reduce costs, just shift costs to senior citizens.

Mike Doyle (D PA-14): Doyle condemned passage of HR 1, calling it destructive and counterproductive. “Frankly, it’s exactly what I’d expect to see when people who hate government are put in charge of it,” Congressman Doyle wrote in his press release. “They say government is useless and inefficient, and if they get their way, it soon will be.” He also posted a message on Twitter saying that the 2012 Republican budget proposal would “destroy Medicare as we know it.”

Charlie Dent (R PA-15): In his announcement that he voted for the last stop-gap spending measure, Dent said, “To avoid the extremely disruptive impact a shutdown would have on our economy, it was absolutely necessary the House passed an additional short-term Continuing Resolution.” Dent also told the Morning Call that he is worried about a shutdown, particularly if military paychecks are not issued. Dent called the 2012 Republican budget proposal “a serious and sobering document” and said that the Medicare and Medicaid proposals deserve thoughtful review.

Joe Pitts (R PA-16): Pitts voted against the bill in March to fund the government through April 8. He also told The Hill newspaper in March that “more and more” social conservatives are considering not voting for legislation that would defund Planned Parenthood and the Affordable Care Act. On April 1, Pitts wrote about the pressing need to cut spending.

Tim Holden (D PA-17): We could not find any definitive statements from Holden, but he did vote in favor of the latest stop-gap spending measure.

Tim Murphy (R PA-18): Murphy also explicitly blames the Senate Democrats for their failure to pass a budget, but did vote for the latest stop gap measure. In his statement he said, “The time for stalling and half-measures and one-week spending bills has long since passed. The longer we postpone the difficult decisions that have to be made, the worse off we become.” He did, however, join in urging the Senate to continue issuing paychecks to military personnel if the government does shut down.

Todd Platts (R PA-19): Platts told the Gettysburg Times “Our intent is to keep government open.” However, he also blames Senate Democrats for failing to pass a budget. He also sent out a press release in early March discussing the problem of duplicated efforts in the federal budget, noting that eliminating such duplication could save $100 billion.

Lycoming College in Williamsport released a poll Tuesday showing Carney leading Marino 45-39, but that is within +/- 5.7 percent margin of error. The poll results are based on a telephone survey of 296 likely voters conducted Oct. 17-21 by Lycoming students.

Marino is winning Republicans by a margin of 64.4 to 20.8 percent while Carney pulls support from 75.3 percent of Democrats with 16.0 favoring the Republican. Carney is winning self identified independents 49.3 to 38.7 percent. Probably more significantly, 40.3 percent of respondents self-identified as Tea Party supporters and those voters break for Marino 76.8 to 14.7 percent.

“While this race has not been a heavy focal point for Tea Party activity,” said Dr. Jonathan Williamson, chair of the Department of Political Science at Lycoming and director of the College’s Center for the Study of Community and the Economy (CSCE) “a voter’s perspective on the Tea Party movement is a relatively clear predictor of where he or she stands in this close race.”

Both campaigns still face a busy week, though with recent polling showing a significant number of undecided voters. The Lycoming College poll shows 16 percent undecided – more than enough to swing the election. Still that’s lower than the nationwide average of undecided voters estimated at about one-third. The bad news for Carney is that undecided voters nationwide seems to be leaning Republican this cycle.

Last week, a Penn Schoen Berland poll showed the race tied 41-41. Still, New York Times’ polling guru Nate Silver is projecting a Marino win in the district.

Biden will be in Scranton Monday to headline a fundraiser for Congressman Chris Carney (D-10). A Carney campaign spokesman told The Times Leader that Biden, who was born in Scranton and lived there until he was 10, will join Carney for a morning event.

Carney faces a tough reelection fight against Republican Tom Marino in the conservative, northeast Pennsylvania district. The race is currently No. 5 on the pa2010.com Congressional Power Rankings.

The Lycoming College survey released Monday echoed other public and private polls in showing a close race. Carney is facing a perilous political climate, but has benefited form a massive financial advantage and a seemingly endless series of public relations missteps by Marino. In the poll, Marino garners 43 percent of the vote, compared to 40 percent for Marino. Sixteen percent are still undecided.

Both candidates fare equally well with independent voters. But Carney has actually locked down a larger proportion of Democratic support than Marino has Republican support in the conservative, northeast Pennsylvania district. But in spite of his votes in favor of the Democratic agenda that can be politically toxic here, more than 50 percent of voters still view Carney favorably, and Marino’s negative ratings remain considerable.

“Even though this is a favorable year for the Republicans, many people in the district still don’t know Marino,” Lycoming pollster Jonathan Williamson said. “When they do, it appears that Democrats have had success defining who he is.”

The poll of 370 likely voters, conducted Sept. 26-30, had a margin of error of 5.1 percent.

The National Republican Congressional Committee unveiled the three new spots Monday morning. Two target Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper (D-3) and Congressman Paul Kanjorski (D-11), vulnerable incumbents who have already been the subject of NRCC TV spots. But the ad against Carney marks the first time the national party has gone after the northeast Pennsylvania Democrat on TV this cycle.

See all three ads below.

The Morning Call, citing an anonymous source, reported this weekend that Marino was under investigation by the Justice Department’s Office of Professional Responsibility “for allegedly violating several department guidelines.” That probe was prompted by the revelation that Marino had provided a reference for businessman Louis DeNaples’ gaming reference while his office was scrutinizing DeNaples.

Marino’s relationship with DeNaples has proven a political headache for the northeast Pennsylvania congressional candidate, and the weekend headline was just the latest in a string of bad-news developments for Marino’s bid to unseat Congressman Chris Carney (D-10). Marino initially said he had permission from Justice Department superiors to give DeNaples the reference, but he and his campaign have offered contradictory statements about that permission, and the department says it has no record of any such authorization.

The latest report is the clearest evidence to date that it was Marino’s reference for DeNaples that prompted his exit as U.S. Attorney.

Now, the Republican congressional candidate has changed his tune once again, telling a local newspaper that he never sought authorization from the Department of Justice before he gave Louis DeNaples the reference. His admission, made Monday to The Daily Item, continued a dizzying string of PR missteps by Marino’s campaign in the 10th District, and underscored its inability to put the story to rest in what would otherwise be an exceptionally favorable political climate for the challenger.

Marino told the newspaper he never sought authorization because he was allowed to give personal references, so long as they come from him personally, and not in his official capacity as U.S. Attorney.

“I did it all the time,” Marino said.

Marino resigned as U.S. Attorney shortly after The Morning Call reported on his reference for DeNaples. He went on to represent DeNaples in private practice—leading Democrats to dub him “Casino Marino.”

Even as he and his campaign have changed the story at least twice, they have denied ever making such changes—claims sharply at odds with the available facts. Marino claimed to the newspaper that he never said he had permission from the Justice Department, but he said exactly the opposite during an April interview with talk-radio host Steve Corbett—who has been dogged in pushing Marino to back up his claims.

And Marino now acknowledges that a supposed letter granting him permission does not exist, and claims he never implied otherwise—despite the fact that he said in at least two formal statements that “documents” from the Department of Justice could clear up the controversy and back up his story.

“The radio personality made it up,” Marino said, referring to Corbett. “There is no letter.”

Even as Corbett spent months assailing Marino on live radio for not releasing a letter his campaign told Corbett would be coming, Marino’s campaign never before denied Corbett’s contention that he had been promised release of a letter. Either way, Marino’s admissions that he never got department permission and that “there is no letter” confirm recent reporting that cast doubt on his story.

Congressman Chris Carney’s (D-10) campaign has had a field day with the controversy, and it stayed on the attack Tuesday morning.

“Another day, another lie from Tom Marino,” Carney campaign spokesman Josh Drobnyk said in a statement. “Tom Marino is spinning a tale of lies to the public and it has become clear he will say anything to get elected. He said live on the radio in April that he went to his Justice Department superiors before providing the personal reference for a felon under investigation by his office and was satisfied with their response. Now he says he never sought their permission. He said just days ago that there were agency ‘documents’ that would end this matter. Now he says ‘there is no letter.’ How can the public trust Tom Marino when he continues to insult them with so many lies?”

The race is currently No. 5 on the pa2010.com Congressional Power Rankings.

In the memo, released Monday amid other poll data showing Marino ahead despite troubling headlines for the challenger, Carney campaign pollster Margie Omero writes that “as news of Marino’s failed ethics, integrity and leadership continue to mount, voters have taken notice.” The memo describes a survey of 400 likely voters, which found Carney winning 46 percent of the vote, compared to 38 percent for Marino and 17 percent who are still undecided. That lead is edge is just outside the 4.9 percent margin of error, and mirrors other surveys in depicting a close race in the conservative-leaning district.

“Carney is both better-known and more popular than Marino,” Omero writes.

The survey was conducted Sept. 23-25, just as Marino was being swamped by bad news last week, including revelations that he was targeted for firing as U.S. Attorney in 2006, and that the Department of Justice has no record of him ever having received permission to provide a reference for a businessman his office was investigating.

Having taken unpopular votes in favor of health care reform and the economic stimulus package, Carney’s campaign is mirroring that of other vulnerable Democrats, painting his opponent as inherently untrustworthy. To that end, Carney has a 16-point edge when voters are asked about ethics, and a 15-point edge when voters are asked who is more trustworthy.

Like most internal poll memos, the full survey questions and crosstabs were not available, making it impossible to independently assess the merits of the poll.

Carney’s biggest advantage is name recognition: Eighty percent of voters know enough about him to form an opinion, compared to 54 percent who know enough about Marino. And 49 percent of respondents view Carney favorably, compared to 28 percent who view Marino favorably. Sporting a large financial advantage, Carney has the opportunity to further define Marino on his campaign’s terms.

“Voters are coalescing behind Chris Carney’s reelection,” Omero writes.

Click here to see the poll memo.

A poll by the newspaper found Barletta leading Congressman Paul Kanjorski (D-11) by 11 points, 43 percent to 32 percent. Marino holds a smaller four-point edge against Congressman Chris Carney (D-10), 40 percent to 36 percent.

Both surveys were taken from relatively small sample sizes, yielding large margins of error. But they reflect a generally positive environment for Republicans in the region, especially in the conservative-leaning 10th District. Republicans hope Carney and Kanjorski will prove two of their most vulnerable targets.

A quarter of likely voters in both districts are undecided, according to the poll. The margin of error was about 6.5 percent in both polls.

Marino’s claim that he was authorized to give Louis DeNaples a reference has dogged his 10th District congressional campaign, and it was severely undercut by a recent Associated Press report cast it into doubt. The department essentially confirmed that report by telling The Times-Tribune that it has no record of Marino getting such permission.

In recent days, Marino’s campaign itself has hedged on the existence of any letter granting Marino permission, claiming that neither Marino nor his campaign ever actually claimed a letter existed. But that contention is sharply at adds with previous statements, including recent ones implying that Justice Department “documents” could clear the air.