Knox endorsed Senator Arlen Specter for renomination, and backed Dan Onorato in the governor’s race, picking the Allegheny County Executive over state Senator Anthony Williams (D-Philadelphia), who entered the race largely because Knox, who he supported, got out. Knox had voiced his support for Onorato the day he formally withdrew from the race.

“As Pennsylvania’s longest serving senator, Arlen Specter has built a legacy of caring and support for the people of the Commonwealth,” Knox wrote. “In seeking an unprecedented sixth term, he intends to carry on the unfinished business of education, health care reform, jobs, fair trade, ending warrantless wiretaps, support for farmers, and civil rights and civil liberties for all. His experience and seniority in 30 years in the Senate have brought billions of dollars into the Commonwealth and created thousands of jobs.”

In a separate e-mail to supporters, Knox called Onorato “the best qualified of all the candidates.”

“I strongly believe that the knowledge and experience he has gained as the Allegheny County Executive puts him in the best position to deal with the many problems that will be facing the next Governor immediately after the election,” Knox said. “I am confident that Dan Onorato is up to the task of coming up with new, innovative, and effective solutions to those problems and will make an excellent Governor.”

Williams, who has been making waves in local political circles by suggesting he might jump into the race after businessman Tom Knox jumped out, would have to play an intense game of catch-up if he ultimately makes a go of it. And his public comments have led some to believe that he’d only be in the race to influence the policy debate.

But in an interview with pa2010.com this week, Williams said he thinks he can win. He said he’d make a final decision within a few weeks.

“Since everybody else who’s running is talking about the same thing and I’m talking about something else,” he said, “if I could raise enough money to be on radio and TV in the region, I think I’d have a shot.”

There have been conflicting news reports as to what his intentions are, with some reporting him as playing down a rumor and others saying he’s already preparing a run. Williams emphasized that’s he’s still just considering it, but that it was getting more serious by the day. He also took issue with the emerging narrative that he’s only interested in talking about issues affecting African-Americans.

“Nobody who wants to be governor could be,” he said of an exclusive focus on black issues. “No one who wants to be governor should be. But these issues shouldn’t be overlooked either.”

He said he was interested in cutting taxes and increasing school choice, themes other candidates have also emphasized.

Candidates need to begin circulating nominating petitions in a few weeks, so he only has a bit longer to mull it over. He said much would depend on what kind of fundraising commitments he received in the coming days. There’s not much money in his existing state campaign accounts, he said.

“To be honest,” Williams said, “I’ve been a terrible fundraiser, but [my supporters] have been great.”

But I’ve been thinking about this for a few days, since before Knox’s much anticipated announcement. And frankly, in the current political climate, it’s difficult to see how this is helpful to anyone but Onorato.

Let’s be clear: Hoeffel, Doherty and Wagner all have valid arguments to make. But the primary is less than four months away, and Onorato’s financial advantage is staggering. That edge is even more significant now that he doesn’t have to piss it away in an air-to-air missile fight with a multi-millionaire like Knox, a dynamic that would have allowed either Doherty or Hoeffel some room to creep up in the polls, a la Michael Nutter in the 2007 Philadelphia mayoral race.

If Hoeffel had a couple million in the bank, things would surely be different. And if his fundraising takes off, it’s certainly not too late. But even with his strong name recognition in the southeast, he’s going to be swamped by a deluge of Onorato for Governor commercials. Ditto for Doherty.

The argument will also be made that Onorato isn’t a southeast candidate, a more conservative Democrat not representative of an area holding 40 percent of the primary electorate. This is true, to a great extent. But the campaign’s entire strategy seems to have been predicated on relocating him in the southeast in every way possible short of actually airlifting his house to downtown Philadelphia. That’s why everywhere you see him in the five-county region, he’s trailed by more operatives than some candidates have on their entire staffs. That’s why the focus of his endorsements have been among prominent southeast Democrats, both liberal and moderate. That’s why millions of dollars are earmarked for TV stations in the southeast, with ads coming courtesy of Neil Oxman, arguably the best media-man the party has in Pennsylvania.

Well-informed sources had told me that Onorato’s camp thought it had a path to victory even if it finished third in Philadelphia—and that was before Knox dropped out. No one laid that path out for me in nitty-gritty detail, but considering his presence on the ground throughout the state (the guy has more political and field directors than I have pairs of pants), it was hard to doubt the contention. Now that Knox is out, it stands to reason the road only gets easier.

Finally, there’s one X-Factor to consider: Ed Rendell. Let’s face it, the governor’s public statements that he’s neutral in the race are pretty much smoke and mirrors at this point. It’s been well-documented that his staunchest supporters and most prolifict fundraisers are with Onorato. At a reception in Rendell’s honor last month in New York, attendees were asked to donate to Onorato. He drops hints to the press here and there to keep us guessing, but they’re getting more transparent as time goes on.

And if the Onorato campaign really thought it would help, it’s a decent bet that Rendell would just come out and say it already. Let’s not forget that, at the moment, the governor is pretty toxic, his approval ratings in the tank. But the only place that isn’t true is in the Philadelphia region, where he pretty much remains a darling of Democratic voters. So as the primary heats up, a key question will be if and when Rendell gets involved. Will he show up at fundraisers? Campaign rallies? Maybe even a quasi-endorsement, crafted in a way to try and minimize Republican efforts to tie Onorato to the incumbent later in the year?

I don’t know where all of this is going. The primary is 115 days away, a life time in politics. But from where we stand right now, Dan Onorato got a big win Friday.

“It’s a big boost for me,” Hoeffel told pa2010.com. It allows me to solidiffty my support in the southeast.

“I already had a 20-point lead over Tom in the southeast, with the other candidates trailing behind him,” he added, referring to his campaign’s internal polling. “So it makes my base that much stronger.”

Like Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty, Hoeffel supporters had hoped that a massive spending battle between Knox and Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato would create space for an alternative candidate. But Hoeffel argued that it’s more important to consider that he now stands alone in the southeast, whereas Onorato splits his southwest base with Auditor General Jack Wagner.

“I believe I’m much better of with Tom out of the race than in the race, because it wasn’t clear how Tom was going to spend that money,” he said. “Presumably he and Onorato were going to go after each other, but it wasn’t for sure. Tom might have spent it attacking me. … I’m very pleased by this development.”

Stepping up his fundraising efforts will be critical in the coming months as he prepares to compete on television with Onorato, who has about 15 times more cash on hand than Hoeffel. His campaign has been rolling out a new fundraising strategy, on which it is expected to brief supporters next week before a series of formal campaign kick-off events.

“I think fewer candidates in the race means less competition,”  campaign spokesman Mark Nevins told pa2010.com. “On that front I think it’s probably a positive development.”

That logic would seem to cut against what Doherty’s strategists had themselves identified as the best path to victory in May: a spending war between Knox and Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato that could give voters an appetite for an alternative candidate. When pressed, Nevins acknowledged that scenario is no longer there.

“The playing field may change a bit but our game plan is unchanged,” he said. “We still need to make our argument to voters all over Pennsylvania, and that is that Chris Doherty’s got the best record on job creation and economic growth. … There were a lot of scenarios we had talked about that were winning scenarios. Having a candidate out changes that, but there are still scenarios that get us to a win.”

Nevins called Knox’s candidacy “good for the party because he talked about a lot of important issues.”

And he played down increasing speculation that Doherty is being pressured to join Onorato on a gubernatorial ticket as his Lieutenant Governor running mate, saying that “we are committed to running for governor.”

“We’re full speed ahead and Mayor Doherty is working hard at getting out meting as many voters as possible, and we feel pretty good about our chances,” Nevins said.

“It’s flattering,” he said of the speculation. “We take it as a compliment when people talk about the benefit of Chris Doherty being on a ticket. I think it means people recognize that he’s got a record of accomplishment.”

Apologies for the sub-par quality. We’ll have to fix our audio in the future.

Knox’s announcement, made in a conference call with reporters, was somewhat anti-climactic, coming after days of flurried speculation and press reports that his exit was near. By the time he got on the phone from his downtown office, numerous news reports had already pegged his withdrawal as definite.

“I initially joined the race because I hold a genuine conviction that public service is about helping people solve problems in their lives,” Knox said, in a monotone that was reserved even by his standards. “I was running for governor because I believe passionately in the power of government to bring positive change. I believe I would have served Pennsylvania’s families well. … However, after talking to Dan Onorato, I’m confident that he and I share the same motivation and vision for our state.

“The best way to continue my fight and accomplish these goals is to do what we can to help Dan Onorato become the next governor of Pennsylvania,” he added. “Stakes are too high to dwell on what might have been.”

Knox said he would help Onorato’s campaign in any way he could, from making his own financial contributions to sharing an e-mail list of of one million likely primary voters his campaign had compiled. He also said he would reach out to the other Democrats that remain in the race—Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel, Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty and Auditor General Jack Wagner—and encourage them to step aside for Onorato as well.

Just over three years after he spent $11 million of his own money in a failed bid to win the mayor’s office in Philadelphia, Knox’s exit on Friday amounted to an admission that he could not buy the governorship, even with twice that amount on the table. While he first insisted his exit was not a financial decision, he later seemed to acknowledged rumors that his wife Linda had been adamantly opposed to burning through millions of dollars on another campaign.

“My wife doesn’t want me to do this, and I love my wife dearly,” he said. Asked why she felt that way, Knox quipped: “You can call her and ask her. Every time I put words in my wife’s mouth she gets mad at me.”

His decision could be the coda to an attempted political career that struggled to gain traction. He was near to winning the mayoral primary in 2007 before his poll numbers dropped, and even with $25 million of his own money supposedly on the table, Democratic insiders never seemed to take him seriously.

At the same time, it was a major boost for Onorato, the Democratic front-runner who was anticipating a huge spending war with Knox that could have created political room for candidates like Hoeffel and Doherty to rise up as alternatives. Knox alluded to this dynamic himself.

“I was going spend $10 million, Dan was going to spend $10 million, and we were gonna beat each other up,” he said. “And that’s not appropriate in a Democratic primary.”

Knox also confirmed reports that he and Onorato had met twice over the last week to discuss his exit, but denied that he had sought a government position if Onorato wins.

“I never asked and he never offered,” Knox insisted. “And I didn’t ask because I don’t need a job. If I’m going to do something I’d want to make sure it’s meaningful.”

He said he had mostly made up his mind last weekend after consulting with his wife. Amid rumors that the relatively long delay between word leaking of his decision and the formal announcement was because campaign manager Josh Morrow had tried to talk him out of it, Knox acknowledged Morrow’s surprise but said his longtime political aide stood by him.

“When I told Josh, I think he almost fell off his chair,” he said. “Josh wanted to make sure I had thought this through, but he supports this decision.

“Josh is more than a campaign mananger to me,” Knox added, “he’s a friend. We’ll always remain good friends. Josh supports anything I do. He’s just a very loyal guy.”

He conceded some personal disappointment at how things had shook out, more than 16 months after he became the first Democrat to say he was definitely running.

“I’ll always think I could have been governor and served Pennsylvania well,” Knox said.

And while he implied it was unlikely he’ll seek elected office again, he didn’t close the door to another mayoral run in 2011.

“I’ve been asked by no less than 50 people to run for mayor again, and from all walks of life,” Knox said. “I don’t want to run for mayor. That’s not on my mind right now. Maybe I’ll rethink that.”

On Wednesday night we parsed the reports and rumors that Democrat Tom Knox was dropping out of the gubernatorial race. We continued to call around Thursday, but people are surprisingly tight-lipped about this. Still, except for Knox’s campaign manager, no one is adamantly shooting this down.

One little nugget that did emerge: The Inquirer reports that a scheduled meeting between Knox and Dan Onorato was canceled, apparently because friend-of-the-site Pete DeCoursey broke the news before it could happen.

We’ll continue looking into it. Stay tuned.

UPDATE: Captiolwire has posted an updated story that also reports the Thursday morning meeting between Knox and Onorato was called off. Meanwhile, we’re hearing murmurs of job inquiries coming from current Knox campaign staffers who think they’ll soon be out of a job.

UPDATE: The Tribune-Review now reports that Knox is dropping out, citing sources close to him. This looks more and more like a definite. The silence from the campaign is deafening.

UPDATE: PoliticsPA reports that Knox will formally drop out Friday.

UPDATE: Capitolwire reports that the meeting between Knox and Onorato on Thursday did indeed happen, despite other reports that it was called off.

UPDATE: Knox will make a “major announcement” during a conference call at noon.

We called around a lot—to Democratic insiders, rival campaigns and people close to Knox. While we were working on that, Capitolwire (subscription only) reported that Knox and Onorato are meeting Thursday morning to discuss a possible endorsement.

We did get in touch with Knox campaign manager Josh Morrow, who said he had been dealing with calls about this all evening, and sounded a little peeved. “It’s a rumor,” he insisted.

If it’s indeed nothing but hot air, it wouldn’t be the first time this kind of leak has spread faster than it can be plugged. We’re going to be careful not to report anything as fact until we know more, but we’ll keep you apprised of what’s out there.

But if it is true, it would have massive ramifications for the Democratic primary going forward. Even though some party insiders haven’t exactly taken Knox seriously, the millions of dollars the wealthy businessman said he’d bring to the table amounted to a meaningful ticket to play in this race, one that would force Onorato into a spending war from Pittsburgh to Philadelphia.

The Captiolwire story, citing unnamed Democratic sources, reported that Knox and Onorato are supposed to meet in Philadelphia at 9 a.m. Thursday. The Web site reported:

At the meeting Thursday morning, Knox is expected to ask for assurance that his key policy issues will be dealt with by the likely Democratic nominee, sources said. His campaign has highlighted government reforms and electric utility rate hike mitigation as major concerns.

Sources from rival campaigns said Knox also was interested in an appointment as chairman or member of the Pennsylvania Liquor Control Board if Onorato is elected, but Knox allies and Onorato sources said that no such deal had been made.

We couldn’t get anyone to talk about the supposed meeting specifically. But we also heard that the Democratic front-runner was on a plane back to Pittsburgh Wednesday evening—which would make it difficult, though certainly not impossible, to get back to Philly for an early-morning meeting.

There’s another factor at play here, too. For months, murmurs have been building that Knox’s wife Linda is pretty steadfast in not wanting her husband to go through this race, and burn through millions just a few years after he spent $11 million in a failed Philadelphia mayoral run.

Even as Morrow said the rumor was only that, he seemed to leave open the possibility. After he said it was a rumor, we asked him, “so it’s not true?”

“I didn’t say it wasn’t true,” he said. “As far as I know this isn’t happening.”

And you would know, right?

“I would think so,” Morrow said. “But stranger things have happened in campaigns.”

Maybe he was just tired from folks pestering him all night.

Where this goes from here is anyone’s guess. But stay tuned.

UPDATE—Here’s one more thought: The Capitolwire story was broken by Pete DeCoursey, a great, well-sourced reporter if there ever was one. Just a thought.