Already having targeted the two-term incumbent and the open-seat candidate in a pair of TV ads before, the group is at it again.

The latest two ads depict the policies of Democratic leaders in Washington as someone who “broke into your home, or stole your credit card, or ripped off your car.”

Check out the ads below.

The health care overhaul’s effect on Medicare is a hotly debated subject infused with tension. After examining the facts, we find these four ads from the 60 Plus Association and Americans for Job Security to be only HALF-TRUE. A separate Americans for Job Security ad targeting Congressman Jason Altmire (D-4), who voted against the reform legislation, does not mention health care. We find that ad to be MOSTLY ACCURATE.

[Click here to read more about our AD WATCH fact-checking series and the different scores.]

The 60 Plus Association, which is often billed as a conservative counterweight to the AARP, has run similar ads targeting incumbent Democrats Kathy Dahlkemper, Chris Carney and Paul Kanjorski. Each ad makes identical claims about the health care law, using a tapestry of regular citizens as narrators. Together in the ad against Dahlkemper, these narrators say:

Washington liberals like Kathy Dahlkemper have betrayed Pennsylvania seniors. She voted for Nancy Pelosi’s big government health care plan that cost a trillion dollars, raises taxes, and cut $500 billion from Medicare. Seniors could lose their doctors and millions could even lose their current Medicare plans.

First, cost: The total price tag of the law is actually a bit less than $1 trillion, clocking in at $940 billion. And according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, it will actually reduce the federal deficit by $143 billion over the next 10 years.

Second, taxes: There’s no question that the law includes Medicare payroll tax increases on high-earners, as well as increased premium payments for wealthier Medicare recipients. These extra costs are targeted at the wealthy. The Medicare payroll tax increase, for example, ranges from 1.45 percent to 2.35 percent for individuals earning $200,000 and couples earning over $250,000, according to the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation’s Medicare Policy Project.

[A detailed dissection of the law's impacts on Medicare from the Kaiser Family Foundation can be found here.]

But it’s the claim of a $500-billion cut to Medicare that is more complicated, and misleading at best. That figure actually refers to $531 billion worth of reductions in the growth in Medicare spending over the next 10 years. The biggest proportion of these savings comes from slowing the growth in payments to Medicare providers and reduced payments to Medicare Advantage plans, which are administered by private insurers. The Congressional Budget Office projects that this will funnel some people away from Medicare Advantage plans, which are typically more expensive and have better benefits, into the regular Medicare system. But again, it’s not a cut as much as it’s a future slowdown. And the changes actually add about 12 years of solvency to the Medicare Part A Trust Fund.

Along with the reductions to Medicare Advantage plans, there are improvements and new benefits added to traditional Medicare plans. So the claim that “millions could lose their current Medicare plans” is true, but the reality is not as disastrous as 60 Plus makes it sound. The law enshrines benefits for doctors visits, hospital stays and rehabilitation services. As far as the AARP is concerned, “no one will lose Medicare coverage.”

The claim that seniors could lose their doctors is the thorniest one to sort through. The truth is, there’s no concrete evidence that it will or won’t happen. But it’s certainly possible, especially as health care providers decline to see patients who move from Medicare Advantage plans to regular Medicare.

So overall, the ads paint a simplistic picture that gets some facts right, but hardly tells the whole story.

As for the two Americans for Job Security ads, the one targeting Altmire is mostly accurate because he did indeed vote for the economic stimulus package and did indeed vote in favor of raising the national debt ceiling. The ad says Altmire is “raising millions to tell you he’s independent”—a fair claim considering the two-term congressman had raised $1.9 million this cycle as of June 30, and has almost surely broken the $2-million mark. It’s correct that Altmire votes with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi almost 90 percent of the time—though that tactic, employed constantly in ads targeting Democrats, means less than it seems, because by tradition House Speakers rarely vote, and mostly on non-contentious resolutions and other items.

See all five ads below.

Rothfus’ first TV ad started airing Tuesday. A candidate who has turned heads with his fundraising ability after knocking off former U.S. Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan in the primary, he’s on the air earlier than Altmire was when he unseated Republican Melissa Hart in 2006. Altmire still enjoys a strong financial advantage, and has already been on the air for weeks. But spending by outside groups and a strong performance by statewide GOP candidates in the western Pennsylvania district could lift Rothfus to a better showing than some expect.

The first 30-second spot says Rothfus has a plan to “root out wasteful government spending” and “remove barriers so business can create jobs.” It criticizes Altmire for playing “follow the leader” with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

See the ad, first reported by Early Returns 2.0, below. It will be fact-checked later as part of pa2010.com‘s new AD WATCH feature.

“There are a lot of people in Washington that aren’t happy with me right now,” Altmire says in the 30-second spot, which began airing earlier this week. “But my job is to do what’s right for folks here.”

Altmire, who faces Republican Keith Rothfus in his bid for a third term, goes on to say he couldn’t support health care reform that “won’t bring down costs.” Altmire has made his opposition to the new law a key selling point this cycle, and his first TV ad touted that as evidence of his independence.

See the ad below. It will be fact-checked later as part of pa2010.com‘s new AD WATCH feature.

The ads from Americans for Job Security criticizes Altmire for claiming to independent from the Democratic leadership, and Lentz for his spending votes in Harrisburg.

The size and scope of the ad buys were not immediately clear. But Politico, in first reporting the group’s media campaign, said the ads would run for a month in four congressional districts.

Altmire faces Republican Keith Rothfus as he seeks a third term in the 4th District. Lentz is running against Republican Pat Meehan for the open seat in the 7th District.

Lentz’s campaign was quick to push back against the ad, noting that the group has been linked to health insurance industry funding and arguing that the ad buy was evidence that support from the “shadowy” group reflected “Republican concern” about Meehan’s campaign.

“At a time when insurance companies are gouging hard working families of the 7th District with outrageous premium hikes and pharmaceutical companies are making billions profiteering off the backs of seniors, it’s no wonder that Americans for Job Security are rushing in to rescue Pat Meehan so he can protect corporations in Congress,” Lentz campaign manager Kevin McTigue said.

See both ads below. They will be fact-checked later as part of pa2010.com‘s new AD WATCH feature.

His Rothenberg Political Report has changed its forecast for the race between Democrat Joe Sestak and Republican Pat Toomey from “Pure Toss-up” to just “Toss-up/Tilt Republican.” This comes after Toomey and his conservative allies have spent months hammering Sestak on the airwaves, and with most public polls showing Toomey enjoying a low double-digit or high single-digit lead.

Rothenberg made the same change to his forecast in the 3rd Congressional District, where he sees Republican Mike Kelly taking a slight edge against Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper (D-3).

And while we were busy scrambling a reporter to cover Democrat Joe Sestak’s big speech in Pittsburgh Tuesday morning, Republican Keith Rothfus was getting together with Congressman Mike Pence (R-Ind.) at Station Square. Pence, the chairman of the House Republican Conference, headlined a fundraiser for Rothfus, who’s taking on Democratic incumbent Jason Altmire in the 4th District.

This event came just as Altmire’s campaign was e-mailing reporters a poll memo that claims a huge lead for the congressman. But our friends at Early Returns 2.0 checked out Pence’s comments after the event, and it looks like Republicans are still in high spirits about the race. The fundraiser was Rothfus was Pence’s first stop in a string of post-Labor Day campaigning.

“Democrats around the country know they have to hold onto conservative districts like this one if they have any hope of holding onto power,” Pence said. “When I saw a conservative of this caliber who is a first tier candidate in every respect, I wanted to be here on what I think essentially is day one of the fall political season—this is event one, day one, for me.

“Make no mistake about it—Congressman Altmire will have more resources at the end of the day to defend this seat,” Pence added, after helping Rothfus raise about $40,000. “This is going to be a hard fought campaign and I believe ultimately that the effort that’s made by Keith Rothfus to enliven the enthusiasm of conservative voters across this district will carry the day.”

The poll memo, released by Altmire’s campaign Tuesday, claims that Altmire holds a 27-point advantage over the Edgeworth attorney, 51 percent to 24 percent. The poll memo, based on a survey of 400 likely voters conducted by the firm Anzalone Liszt Research, also claims that 60 percent of respondents view the two-term congressman favorably, and 54 percent give him a positive job-approval rating.

“Altmire is no stranger to winning elections in a district that has historically favored Republicans,” pollsters John Anzalone and Brian Stryker wrote, “and voters’ affection for Jason and their appreciation of his job performance once again put him in a commanding lead over his Republican opponent.”

The full survey questions and toplines were not available, making the veracity of the poll impossible to assess. But Altmire enjoys a significant financial advantage over Rothfus, and has already begun his TV campaign. His opposition to health care reform legislation has led some Republicans to count out the southwest Pennsylvania district as a pick-up opportunity. Altmire’s campaign had done little public messaging prior to its first TV ad, and has yet to refer to his opponent by name. But despite claims by the campaign that Altmire is focused solely on his day job, the release of the poll memo underscores that the campaign is still very much looking to frame the November contest on its terms.

The survey was conducted Aug. 30 to Sept. 2, but the poll memo did not indicate a margin of error.

Click here to see the poll memo.

But their agreement ends there, and Rothfus says Altmire is just playing politics—albeit with a subject that has become a political rallying cry for candidates across the ideological spectrum.

“He saw this as an opportunity to step away from the president, rather than defend his record on unemployment and job creation,” Rothfus told pa2010.com recently.

His comments came shortly after Altmire became one of the first Pennsylvania Democrats to voice his opposition to the controversial project. Rothfus has bashed Altmire at every opportunity as he tries to build an insurgent campaign against him. Altmire, for his part, has avoided engaging his opponent in the public sphere—breaking his political silence for the first time Tuesday with a cable ad buy.

Rothfus says the project’s backers should move their location elsewhere.

“For the sake of the families who lost loved ones on 9/11,” he said, “they should reconsider.”