Rothfus’ first TV ad started airing Tuesday. A candidate who has turned heads with his fundraising ability after knocking off former U.S. Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan in the primary, he’s on the air earlier than Altmire was when he unseated Republican Melissa Hart in 2006. Altmire still enjoys a strong financial advantage, and has already been on the air for weeks. But spending by outside groups and a strong performance by statewide GOP candidates in the western Pennsylvania district could lift Rothfus to a better showing than some expect.

The first 30-second spot says Rothfus has a plan to “root out wasteful government spending” and “remove barriers so business can create jobs.” It criticizes Altmire for playing “follow the leader” with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

See the ad, first reported by Early Returns 2.0, below. It will be fact-checked later as part of pa2010.com‘s new AD WATCH feature.

“There are a lot of people in Washington that aren’t happy with me right now,” Altmire says in the 30-second spot, which began airing earlier this week. “But my job is to do what’s right for folks here.”

Altmire, who faces Republican Keith Rothfus in his bid for a third term, goes on to say he couldn’t support health care reform that “won’t bring down costs.” Altmire has made his opposition to the new law a key selling point this cycle, and his first TV ad touted that as evidence of his independence.

See the ad below. It will be fact-checked later as part of pa2010.com‘s new AD WATCH feature.

His Rothenberg Political Report has changed its forecast for the race between Democrat Joe Sestak and Republican Pat Toomey from “Pure Toss-up” to just “Toss-up/Tilt Republican.” This comes after Toomey and his conservative allies have spent months hammering Sestak on the airwaves, and with most public polls showing Toomey enjoying a low double-digit or high single-digit lead.

Rothenberg made the same change to his forecast in the 3rd Congressional District, where he sees Republican Mike Kelly taking a slight edge against Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper (D-3).

And while we were busy scrambling a reporter to cover Democrat Joe Sestak’s big speech in Pittsburgh Tuesday morning, Republican Keith Rothfus was getting together with Congressman Mike Pence (R-Ind.) at Station Square. Pence, the chairman of the House Republican Conference, headlined a fundraiser for Rothfus, who’s taking on Democratic incumbent Jason Altmire in the 4th District.

This event came just as Altmire’s campaign was e-mailing reporters a poll memo that claims a huge lead for the congressman. But our friends at Early Returns 2.0 checked out Pence’s comments after the event, and it looks like Republicans are still in high spirits about the race. The fundraiser was Rothfus was Pence’s first stop in a string of post-Labor Day campaigning.

“Democrats around the country know they have to hold onto conservative districts like this one if they have any hope of holding onto power,” Pence said. “When I saw a conservative of this caliber who is a first tier candidate in every respect, I wanted to be here on what I think essentially is day one of the fall political season—this is event one, day one, for me.

“Make no mistake about it—Congressman Altmire will have more resources at the end of the day to defend this seat,” Pence added, after helping Rothfus raise about $40,000. “This is going to be a hard fought campaign and I believe ultimately that the effort that’s made by Keith Rothfus to enliven the enthusiasm of conservative voters across this district will carry the day.”

The poll memo, released by Altmire’s campaign Tuesday, claims that Altmire holds a 27-point advantage over the Edgeworth attorney, 51 percent to 24 percent. The poll memo, based on a survey of 400 likely voters conducted by the firm Anzalone Liszt Research, also claims that 60 percent of respondents view the two-term congressman favorably, and 54 percent give him a positive job-approval rating.

“Altmire is no stranger to winning elections in a district that has historically favored Republicans,” pollsters John Anzalone and Brian Stryker wrote, “and voters’ affection for Jason and their appreciation of his job performance once again put him in a commanding lead over his Republican opponent.”

The full survey questions and toplines were not available, making the veracity of the poll impossible to assess. But Altmire enjoys a significant financial advantage over Rothfus, and has already begun his TV campaign. His opposition to health care reform legislation has led some Republicans to count out the southwest Pennsylvania district as a pick-up opportunity. Altmire’s campaign had done little public messaging prior to its first TV ad, and has yet to refer to his opponent by name. But despite claims by the campaign that Altmire is focused solely on his day job, the release of the poll memo underscores that the campaign is still very much looking to frame the November contest on its terms.

The survey was conducted Aug. 30 to Sept. 2, but the poll memo did not indicate a margin of error.

Click here to see the poll memo.

But their agreement ends there, and Rothfus says Altmire is just playing politics—albeit with a subject that has become a political rallying cry for candidates across the ideological spectrum.

“He saw this as an opportunity to step away from the president, rather than defend his record on unemployment and job creation,” Rothfus told pa2010.com recently.

His comments came shortly after Altmire became one of the first Pennsylvania Democrats to voice his opposition to the controversial project. Rothfus has bashed Altmire at every opportunity as he tries to build an insurgent campaign against him. Altmire, for his part, has avoided engaging his opponent in the public sphere—breaking his political silence for the first time Tuesday with a cable ad buy.

Rothfus says the project’s backers should move their location elsewhere.

“For the sake of the families who lost loved ones on 9/11,” he said, “they should reconsider.”

Altmire is starting with an ad buy on cable television, according to someone familiar with the buy. The precise size of the buy remains unclear. The 30-second spot, embedded at bottom, depicts the sophomore as an independent willing to buck his party, noting his votes against health care reform and the financial bailouts.

His first air deployment comes as he enjoys a significant financial advantage over Republican challenger Keith Rothfus.

Altmire’s campaign did not return several calls Tuesday morning.

The National Republican Congressional Committee is hoping that Altmire’s Ignore-Keith-Rothfus strategy will backfire.

“A similar thing happened in 2006,” Brock McCleary, an NRCC political director, told pa2010.com in a recent interview. “Many of our congressmen heard that there was a wave coming, and sort of stuck their heads in the sand. A number of them are no longer congressmen. To the extent that Altmire is doing that, we thank him, and we’d like him to know that we appreciate it.”

Altmire has still been raising money, and enjoys a significant financial advantage over Rothfus, the Edgeworth attorney and GOP nominee. But other than that, there is little indication that a public reelection campaign has even started. His campaign, which has referred to Rothfus as an “extremist candidate” but never mentioned him by name, declined to comment for this article.

McCleary predicted the strategy won’t work in a district John McCain won in 2008.

“It’s a wave district,” McCleary said. “It’s a priority district, no question about it.”

Some Republicans are quietly counting out the district as a pickup opportunity, and The New York Times recently reported that Altmire is “among the Democrats no longer seen by Republicans as easy targets.” That led to some pushback from the NRCC, which insisted that Altmire is still a target. Altmire was one of only two House Democrats in Pennsylvania to vote against the health care reform bill both times it came before the chamber. Rothfus has been a rare fundraising bright spot among GOP challengers in the state, and the western Pennsylvania race is currently No. 7 on the pa2010.com Congressional Power Rankings.

Rothfus, for his part, said he’s not focusing on his opponent’s strategy.

“I’ve been too busy with my own campaign to think about it much,” he said recently. “He has a tough record to defend. Maybe he doesn’t want to face the voters and defend the Obama-Pelosi-Altmire record on unemployment.”

That strategy—heavily reliant on a lean campaign replete with volunteers—was on display during a recent Saturday here, when Rothfus was canvassing and hitting almost two dozen homes himself in this town 31 miles from Pittsburgh. The door-to-door was one of four campaign events Rothfus held that day. The energetic campaign has made for a striking contrast with Altmire’s, which is still not seriously engaging political reporters and, other than recently asking supporters to host house parties, has done little in public. The extent of Altmire’s messaging campaign against Rothfus has been to declare, without mentioning him by name, that Rothfus is an “extremist” candidate.

“We had to run our campaign early,” Rothfus campaign manager Stephanie said. “We’ve been out walking and calling people since the beginning of July. We’re ramping up, getting more people out there, more people calling. [Altmire] may be doing his fundraising, but I haven’t seen him out on the campaign trail the way Keith is.”

Altmire’s campaign declined to comment for this article. Of the opposition’s tack, Miller said: “I don’t know that you can use that strategy in a swing district like this.”

On this recent Saturday of canvassing, Rothfus talked about his opposition to increased government spending and the newly-enacted health care law to anyone who answered their doors. He referred to his children as “Generation Debt” for the crushing burden he said they would inherit.

David Lozier, a Rothfus volunteer, said the campaign on this day was targeting Beaver County voters who are independent or moderate-leaning members of either party that might be sold on Rothfus. Democrats who consistently vote in their party primaries are seen as less likely to swing toward the conservative candidate. A more extensive phone bank is being set up to more extensively target the ones who could be up for grabs.

“A lot of people around here vote Democrat just because they always have,” he said.

Despite the fact that about half the doors went unanswered on this particular day, the energy from Rothfus was palpable.

“We need to stop spending our kids’ and our grand-kids’ money,” he said repeatedly.