On Pat Meehan and the political winds

When Senator Arlen Specter defected to the Democrats, a political adviser to likely gubernatorial candidate Tom Corbett showed a little savvy by pI talked to Meehan spokeswoman Virgina Davis the day emThe Inquirer/em story came out, and she made clear Meehan was singularly focused on the gubernatorial race./p
pBut obviously the plant by Corbett aide John Brabender got some legs, because Meehan’s office kept getting calls from reporters about a possible switch to the Senate race. As she kept sending out statements affirming his interest in the race, there was a slight but noticeable change in tone. While previous statements contained no equivocation, her recent statement adds this caveat: “However, he is always open to doing what he believes is best for Pennsylvania.”/p
pAt first glance, I thought this might demonstrated a change in position. The more I thought about it though, the more I began to suspect it’s nothing more than an acknowledgment of how fast the political winds are shifting. Just like Congressman Jim Gerlach (R-6) is a href="http://www.pa2010.com/2009/05/gerlach-aide-says-phone-is-ringing-off-the-hook/" onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.pa2010.com']);return TrackClick("http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pa2010.com%2F2009%2F05%2Fgerlach-aide-says-phone-is-ringing-off-the-hook%2F','receiving+calls')" target="_blank"receiving calls/a encouraging him to run for Senate, there’s no doubt Meehan is too./p
pGOP insiders know their best bet of making a comeback in 2010 win is in the gubernatorial race. Corbett has the a href="http://www.pa2010.com/2009/05/corbett-still-leads-in-guv-poll%e2%80%94most-undecided/" onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.pa2010.com']);return TrackClick("http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pa2010.com%2F2009%2F05%2Fcorbett-still-leads-in-guv-poll%25e2%2580%2594most-undecided%2F','early+lead')" target="_blank">early lead in name recognition based on his recent statewide election wins, and some party officials would like nothing more than for him to walk into the nomination unscathed and with all his attention—and money—focused on the Democrats. Even some Democrats I talk to quietly lament that Corbett will probably be the next …

May 1, 2009 at 12:53 pm | Comments (0)

Gerlach aide says phone is ‘ringing off-the-hook’

A political adviser to Congressman Jim Gerlach (R-6) says his boss’ phone has been “ringing off-the-hook” with people encouraging him to run for Senate.

Gerlach is exploring a run for Governor, and Mark Campbell, his chief political consultant, said that exploratory run is continuing. But with the dust still settling from Senator Arlen Specter’s defection to the Democrats, Gerlach seems to be emerging as the Republican most likely to take his place in the race. …

May 1, 2009 at 12:33 pm | Comments (4)

Corbett still leads in guv poll—most undecided

Continuing to benefit from his superior name recognition, Attorney General Tom Corbett holds a significant lead over his potential GOP competitors for the party’s gubernatorial nomination, according to a new poll.

The Franklin & Marshall …

May 1, 2009 at 10:28 am | Comments (1)

Considering Senate bid, Gerlach will continue ‘listening’

Congressman Jim Gerlach (R-6), who is emerging as one of the lead GOP contenders to run for Senate in Arlen Specter’s place despite his expressed interest in the governorship, says people are encouraging him to enter the race—but that he’s still just listening.

In a statement from his office (hat tip to GrassrootsPA), Gerlach said: “I will continue to travel the Commonwealth considering future opportunities to serve, while listening and promoting a Republican rebirth in …

April 30, 2009 at 12:59 pm | Comments (6)

The morning after: Conspiracy theories and names in the air

It could be called the equivalent of the political hangover: A news event rocks the political landscape, and in the process pundits, journalists and insiders throw out so many different hypothetically impending scenarios that it’s hard to keep track of what had merit in reality and what was a pipe dream.

The next morning, it’s all a cesspool of political speculation and innuendo.

The day after Senator Arlen Specter pemScenario 1: Congressman Jim Gerlach (R-6) will run for the GOP Senate nomination./em/p
pLooking at the various reports, this one seems like it just may be based on genuine interest from him, or at least from people close to him. Having persevered in an increasingly Democratic district, Gerlach already has relationships with national Republicans who have seen his toughness. But even if victorious in a primary, matching Specter’s fundraising for the general election would be a profound challenge. strongSnap verdict: Possible.br /
/strong/p
pemScenario 2: Democrat Joe Torsella will exit the Senate race./em/p
pWhile this is fervently denied by Torsella and people close to him, many party insiders say it’s a foregone conclusion. Torsella was always assumed to be in the race with Gov. Ed Rendell’s support, and raised some of his early money from a roster of Rendell supporters. With the Governor and the party apparatus he controls behind Specter, continuing his a href="http://www.pa2010.com/2009/04/big-names-aided-torsellas-first-fundraising-haul/" onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.pa2010.com']);return TrackClick("http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pa2010.com%2F2009%2F04%2Fbig-names-aided-torsellas-first-fundraising-haul%2F','early+fundraising+blitz')" target="_blank"early fundraising blitz/a would prove very difficult. And The Inquirer speculates that Torsella could get the top spot at the Chamber of Commerce of Greater Philadelphia as a consolation. strongSnap verdict: Likely./strong/p
pemScenario 3: Pat Meehan will run for Senate.br /
/em/p
pThis appears to be little more than a a href="http://www.pa2010.com/2009/04/corbett-adviser-suggests-that-meehan-leave-guv-field-no-dice-meehan-aide-says/" onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.pa2010.com']);return TrackClick("http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pa2010.com%2F2009%2F04%2Fcorbett-adviser-suggests-that-meehan-leave-guv-field-no-dice-meehan-aide-says%2F','plant')" target="_blank">plant by people close to Attorney …

April 29, 2009 at 8:33 am | Comments (4)

Report: DCCC showcasing Pike

A year before the Democratic primary, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee seems to be preparing some early support for Doug Pike in the 6th District, the only Democrat so far to declare, PoliticsPA …

April 27, 2009 at 10:31 pm | Comments (2)

Democrats once again eyeing PA-6

Regardless of whether Republican Congressman Jim Gerlach (R-Chester County) decides forgo reelection in favor of a run at the Governor’s Mansion, several Democrats seem well positioned to once again fight for the 6th District seat that the GOP and Gerlach struggled to win since its creation six years ago.

Doug Pike, a former editorial board member at The Philadelphia Inquirer, is the only Democrat to officially declare his candidacy for the seat, which includes areas of Chester, Montgomery and Berks counties. But at least three others are considering the race, including two have challenged Gerlach before. The district has consistently been one of the most competitive in the state. And while Democrats think they can win even if Gerlach stays put, most analysts consider the seat a lock to switch parties if he pursues the governorship instead.

“He’s had a tenuous hold on it,” said G. Terry Madonna, a pollster and political science professor at Franklin & Marshall College. “Somehow, he’s found a way to win. I think it gives the Democrats a huge opening should he actually run [for governor].”

April 19, 2009 at 6:15 pm | Comments (0)