Last spring, state GOP chairman Rob Gleason accompanied state Senator & Majority Whip Jane Orie to Washington to discuss a potential run. She is said to have done a 180 after Toomey supporters threatened to yank support for her sister and Supreme Court candidate, Joan Orie Melvin.

Now, Jane Orie and another sister are heading for trial in Allegheny County.

Meanwhile, moderate alternative Tom Ridge, who GOP officials were trying to lure into the race, has taken a $900,000 gig to be the face of the Marcellus Shale Coalition for the next year.

Interesting turn of fortunes for two candidates who, at the time, were seen as better choices for moderate Republicans by party leaders.

But is that really the case?

Sure, Corbett has had to do little to garner media attention during his run for the state’s highest office, thanks to his now three-year long—with no end in sight—“Bonusgate” investigation, which purports to expose legislative corruption but which, to date, has seemed to target mostly Democratic office holders and staff, number of indictments aside. But accusations of partisanship by Corbett will only be strengthened by recent revelations that state Senator Jane Orie, the chamber’s third-ranking Republican, is being investigated for the exact same thing—asking staffers to work on state time to aid in the campaign of her sister, recently elected state Supreme Court Judge Joan Orie Melvin, the brightest of the lights in the state GOP’s November electoral victories.

Corbett’s office apparently missed Orie’s alleged misdeeds, however, as the investigation into improprieties in her office is being handled not by Corbett’s state-level grand jury but by an Allegheny County grand jury at the behest of Allegheny County District Attorney Stephen A. Zappala, Jr.

Add to that the fact that former state Representative Sean Ramaley was found not guilty just last month in the only trial that has resulted so far from the Bonusgate investigation after what is widely considered to have been a politically motivated case intended to knock a rising star of the Democratic Party out of what was, at the time, the only competitive race for state Senate in Pennsylvania.

And while it is common political wisdom that it is always better to have your nominee decided on and the other guys battling it out in a primary, I’m not so sure that wisdom is always on target. Both political parties are capable of walking and chewing gum at the same time, and both can promote their own candidates while at the same time gathering opposition research against the other team. That task is much easier when the other team has already made its choice, especially when its choice has painted a target on himself through partisan overreaching in an office that is supposed to protect the interests of all Pennsylvanians in a non-partisan way.

While the state GOP will be left spending the primary season making the generic—and tired—accusations of liberal taxing and spending, big government and elitism toward a not-yet-decided Democratic nominee, Democrats can go to work on Corbett’s record.

In other words: If Jane Orie ran against Pat Toomey in a GOP primary, then Joan Orie Melvin might have a tough time in her bid for state Supreme Court, should Toomey supporters decide to dole out some payback and vote against Judge Joan.

The state Senator flew to Washington with state GOP Chairman Robert Gleason, who has been seeking candidates to step into the U.S. Senate primary. But after meeting with national GOP leaders. Orie quickly reversed course, sending a press release out saying she was staying in Harrisburg, for now.

Toomey has since garnered the endorsement of the National Republican Senatorial Committee as he coalesces support from GOP leaders across the state. While some party insiders say Toomey is too conservative to win in Pennsylvania, others are OK with him at the top of the ticket, especially if he can bring out the base.

Well, I just spoke to Santorum, and he said it’s not true. He wasn’t at the meeting, he said, and didn’t even know it was happening until shortly beforehand.

“I was on vacation that week,” he told me.

At the moment, there’s no evidence I’ve found to refute his statement. I couldn’t reach anyone at the NRSC this morning, and state Republican officials have been extremely reticent to even discuss the meeting, which it increasingly seems was organized by state party chairman Rob Gleason (Santorum said that was the case).

Santorum acknowledged speaking with Orie—”she’s called and asked for advice, but I give advice to a lot of folks,” he said—but he said that’s where it ended.

That being said, there’s clearly a divide over Toomey at the highest levels of the GOP, even if Santorum says he’s not part of it. Theories abound that Santorum isn’t happy with the way Toomey has assumed his old mantle as the conservative movement’s standard-bearer here. The fact that Toomey has in the past, as the Club for Growth head, run conservative candidates against establishment Republicans, doesn’t help.

“The problem Pat Toomey has is that Pat has been out aggressively running candidates across Pennslyvania with the Club for Growth against a lot of Republicans,” Santorum said. “So there are a lot of Republicans … who have a bone to pick with Pat. They’re going to be looking for an alternative.”

But asked point blank if he’s one of those Republicans, Santorum insisted he’s staying out of it.

“I’m not recruiting anybody,” he said. “I’m squarely on the sidelines.”

Santorum frames the divide as existing within only the smallest number of Republicans. And he thinks we in the media are, of course, fueling it.

“The media has tried to convince everyone that a conservative can’t win in Pennsylvania,” he said. “I think I showed everyone that in fact they can.”

Regardless, the time for another viable Republican candidate to emerge and seriously challenge Toomey is running out—and fast.

In a statement, Orie, who had reportedly met with Republican leaders in Washington recently, said the contentious budget negotiations in Harrisburg had to take priority over any political ambitions.

Pennsylvania is at a critical crossroads and facing a dire budget situation,” Orie said. “As this is my first time being in the budget negotiations, I must respect and fulfill my responsibilities to my constituents, the citizens of Pennsylvania and my caucus, who is standing solidly against new taxes. I must put any personal ambitions aside and focus on the crucial task at hand.”

But at this still-early stage, the Republicans are mostly alone in the field. Only one Democrat has said he is likely to run, and while others have been mentioned as viable, a deluge of Democratic candidates in to the race seems unlikely anytime soon.

So why are Democrats lukewarm to the contest? Many analysts and political insiders think it’s because after 8 years holding the Governor’s Mansion, Democrats are counting on voters to stick to their longtime habit of kicking the incumbent party out of office. Being second-fiddle on a winning ticket can be a career boost—sometimes—but a losing running mate risks a future of political obscurity. For now, Republicans are clearly more confident that they can ride the coattails of their party’s nominee to Harrisburg.

“The Democrats don’t think they can win and don’t want to be part of a losing ticket,” state Republican Party chairman Rob Gleason told pa2010.com in an interview. “This also shows we have some great talent out there of people who see themselves as viable governors down the road.”

Republican political consultant Charlie Gerow added: “It’s indicative of the fact that Republicans think they can win next year.”

In an interview, Abe Amoros, the state Democratic Party’s spokesman and political director, acknowledged the dearth of Democrats in the race, but said it wasn’t unusual so early in the election cycle.

“We’ll definitely have more than a few names that we’ll be hearing about in the fall,” he said.

The one Democrat almost certain to run for the position is Jonathan Saidel, a former City Controller in Philadelphia. Former state Treasurer Robin Wiessmann is also rumored to be thinking about a run. “I certainly have left it open to consideration,” she said recently.

The contrast with the Republican field is striking. Montgomery County Commissioners Jim Matthews and Bruce Castor are both interested in the job. Ditto Frank Rizzo Jr., a Philadelphia City Councilman and son of the city’s former mayor. Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta, a darling of anti-immigration conservatives, it increasingly talked about. So is state Representative Mike Turzai (R-Allegheny), who led the caucus’ campaign committee last year in avoiding the cascade of lost seats many were expecting in a Democratic year (the party lost only two seats). York County businessman Steve Johnson has already declared his intention to run. So has former Erie County Executive Rick Schenker .

Throw in names like former Congresswoman Melissa Hart; state Senate Majority Whip Jane Orie (R-Allegheny); state Senator John Pippy (R-Allegheny); state Senator Rob Wonderling (R-Bucks); state Representative Karen Beyers (R-Lehigh); Chester County Commissioner Carol Aichele and Dauphin County Commissioner Nick DiFrancesco, and the race for Lt. Gov. is shaping up as a crowded one.

“I guess we have a gazillion folks out there,” said Lowman Henry, head of the Lincoln Institute, a conservative think tank in Harrisburg.

Running for Lieutenant Governor is a politically quirky proposition. A victory usually depends on support from the likely top-ticket nominee, and most gubernatorial candidates look for someone who brings geographic to the balance to the ticket. That means the folks from the southeast will likely root for Attorney General Tom Corbett, who hails from Pittsburgh. The candidates from Corbett’s turf will hinge their hopes on southeast Pennsylvania’s Pat Meehan.

“There’s all kind of idiosyncratic things that go into why they win,” Franklin & Marshall pollster G. Terry Madonna said.