According to a summary in the proposed budget, Pennsylvania pays $30,248 per year to lock up an inmate. Health care costs account for $4,505 per inmate per year. In contrast, Pennsylvania spends $13,343 per child in school ($4,952 of that in state funds, the rest from federal sources and local property tax revenue).

And none of those numbers include a proposed new state prison in Fayette County, which was canceled last month. According to a Department of Corrections press release, that can be downloaded here, the state prison population stayed at around 51,000 through 2010. (There are also approximately 36,000 more inmates in county lock-ups in the state.) As a result, acting Secretary John Wetzel said there was no need to spend $200 million on the new facility. He also noted that the state under utilizes a boot camp facility in Clearfield County as well as other community corrections programs.

Still, the budget proposal notes that expansion projects will continue at four facilities at a cost of $68.5 million. Those projects would add another 1,260 beds to the prison system. Corbett’s proposed budget also calls for returning 2,140 inmates who are currently housed in Michigan and Virginia under contracts. Ending those contracts would save $29.5 million.

A major problem, though, is that those inmates from Michigan and Virginia would be rejoining an already overcrowded state prison system. According to the governor’s numbers, there will be an estimated 49,787 inmates in the state prison system at the end of 2011 but the estimated capacity for the end of 2011 will be 44,980. By June, 2012, when the expansions are complete, the state prison system will have a capacity of 45,734.

Assuming no spikes or declines in the prison population, the state prison system will be over capacity by 4,053 inmates in June, 2012. With 26 institutions in operation, that means each institution will be housing an average of 156 people more than capacity, approximately nine percent over capacity. That is the capacity of SCI Camp Hill and SCI Greensburg combined.

In his budget address, Corbett noted that the state prison population in 1993 stood at around 24,000 inmates, meaning the prison population has more than doubled. Between the 1990 and 2010 census, the state’s population grew by about 820,000 people or about 6.5 percent. That means more people are being locked up and for longer periods of time.

Just like with budgeting, the commonwealth will either have to increase the prison capacity or reduce the number of people in the system. Corbett’s budget office is working with a $4 billion deficit and he explicitly said in his address that the state, “can’t afford to ask counties in our state to subsist on a prison-based economy” in reference to ending the Fayette County prison. Therefore, embarking on an ambitious prison-building spree is probably off the table for the foreseeable future. While the state needs jobs, building prisons is probably not the ideal job to create.

Sentencing reform

Corbett alluded to the need for sentencing reform in his address as well as the need for more parole officers to help inmates return to the community and reduce recidivism rates. However, he did not offer many specifics. Other state officials, on the other hand, have some ideas that need to balance effective deterrence with a pragmatic approach to reducing the prison population.

In late January, Auditor General Jack Wagner offered a list of recommendations to reduce the state’s prison population. His recommendations build upon previous reforms passed in 2010. Wagner suggests expanding alternative punishment programs for non-violent offenders such as Community Correction Centers (half-way houses), home-based electronic monitoring and the Quehanna motivational boot camp as well as expanding the types of crimes that qualify for those programs. He also suggests ending the practice of allowing counties to send to the state inmates with less serious offenses and less than one year on their sentences.

The last point may be problematic as is would do little more than shift the financial burden from the state general fund to county budgets. According to the Department of Corrections’ 2009 report available here 2,615 inmates sent to state prisons in 2009, or 24.2 percent of total commitments, had minimum sentences of one year or less. That is the size of one of the state’s larger penitentiaries.

In total, Wagner noted that 19,000 inmates or about 39 percent of the prison population are serving time for non-violent offenses. If even some of those inmates could be transferred to alternative programs such as motivational boot camp, intensive home monitoring and half-way houses, Wagner said that the state could place a moratorium on building new prisons.

One other suggestion Wagner offered is passage of Senate Judiciary Chair Stewart Greenleaf’s (R-Bucks/Montgomery) Criminal Justice Reform Act. The bill is SB 100. In a letter discussing the bill, Greenleaf notes that Act 95, passed last year, included a number of his reform recommendations. Greenleaf’s current bill essentially mirrors Wagner’s recommendations and includes $50 million in appropriations to start and expand these alternative sentencing programs but he notes that they would save money in the long run.

One notable statistic from the 2009 Department of Corrections report is that Community Corrections Centers reported 97 walk-away escapes for the year. That was the lowest number since an increase in the population of Community Corrections Centers in 2006. Typically, escapees, once caught, are returned to prison and charged with escape, adding time to the sentence.

The same set of statistics shows that 3,378 of the 10,783 commitments in 2009 were for drug offenses and another 708 were for driving under the influence. In Pennsylvania, drunk drivers typically do not land in state prison until a third or subsequent conviction, while fatal crashes usually fall under other offenses such as homicide by motor vehicle.

The Philadelphia Experiment

In April, 2010 Philadelphia District Attorney Seth Williams announced a plan to essentially decriminalize possession of a small amount (less than 30 grams or about an ounce) of marijuana. At the time, Williams estimated that such a move could eliminate 3,000 cases from city courts or about five percent of the caseload. Meanwhile, city police said they would continue to make arrests for marijuana possession and leave punishment decisions to the courts.

Eleven months later, the Philadelphia Weekly magazine looked at the new reality for people charged with possession of a small about of marijuana. The city has set up a Small Amounts of Marijuana diversion program. Under the program, offenders are ordered to pay a $200 fine and attend a three-hour treatment class. The defendants do not get legal representation and their records will be expunged within six months. The city diverted about 80 percent of the 1636 arrests for possession of a small amount of pot to the program and was on track to save $3 million to $5 million for the year.

The story also paints a picture of a disproportionate number of African American youths getting caught up in the system even though whites and blacks report comparable rates of marijuana usage. (Incidentally, the state’s prison population was 49 percent African American, 39 percent white and 11 percent Latino in 2009.) The report also discusses people waiting for their turn in court complaining about the government’s war on pot. What is noticeably absent is a quote from any defendant saying that the experience would keep them from smoking marijuana again. Indeed, one young man featured in the article was going through the system for weed – not for the first time and probably not for the last time.

This brings up the question of whether state-wide reforms of marijuana laws would have a significant impact on the state prison system. Granted, most of the focus right now is on the medicinal use of marijuana, but the question of marijuana decriminalization remains on the table. A March, 2011 Pew survey found support for legalization or at least decriminalization nearly tripling from 16 percent to 45 percent since 1990. That’s still not a majority, but support has been steadily rising, primarily driven by younger voters and people who have attended college. Meanwhile, the U.S. Justice Department continues to hold that Congress has found it to be a dangerous drug and contends sales support criminal and terrorist organizations. Of course, DOJ cannot selectively stop enforcing laws passed by Congress, though Democrat Jared Polis of Colorado is pushing for federal decriminalization which would allow states to set their own policies.

However, most drug cases fall under state statute. In most possession cases in Pennsylvania, a defendant is not looking at state prison time unless he or she is in possession of a large amount of the drug and intends to sell it. In most possession cases, the defendant will go through a county court system and serve any prison time or probation there. It is only habitual offenders and repeat probation violators who even see the possibility of serving time in a state prison. Therefore, state-wide decriminalization would also have to give dealers a pass in order to have any appreciable impact on the state prison population. Furthermore, it would also have to offer retroactive immunity to have an immediate impact as those already sentenced would otherwise have to finish their sentences. On the other hand, Philadelphia’s experiment would likely pay the same dividends locally if implemented statewide.

All things considered, Corbett’s prison budget is a necessary expense. It would certainly not be prudent to simply cut the funding and turn those inmates loose. On the other hand, it is an opportunity to revisit the state’s sentencing guidelines and policies to ensure that violators receive appropriate punishment and treatment.

But as results came in from Allegheny County—a critical base shared by both Wagner and eventual winner Dan Onorato—it became increasingly clear there would be no surprise endings.

“Unfortunately, in life, some things don’t work out the way you want,” Wagner said in his concession speech. “But that’s OK because we’ve learned a lot from this campaign. I say thank you, but at the same time … I haven’t given up the cause to make Pennsylvania better.”

He reminded his supporters who had gathered at a restaurant here that he would remain as the state auditor general for the next two years. Wagner said he plans to support the Democratic ticket in the general election, but promised to continue to be independent in his position as auditor general.

“Some people say I’m a pain in the butt,” he said, reiterating a line from a campaign ad. “And that’s OK because I’m a pain in the butt for the citizens of Pennsylvania.”

The Wagner campaign was vastly outspent by Onorato and state Senator Anthony Williams, but still came in second place over Williams. Eileen Wagner, the candidate’s sister-in-law and a top political adviser, said the advertising blitz from Onorato was just too much to overcome.

“Dan’s been up for six weeks,” she said, “and that makes a big difference. The money has been flooding in for six weeks.”

Both Onorato and Williams traded a number of barbs on the airawves, but never pulled Wagner into the fray. Eileen Wagner said her brother-in-law would not condone a negative campaign.

“That has never been Jack’s way to run a campaign,” she said. “From city council to state auditor general, he’s never run a negative campaign.”

The candidate wouldn’t speculate on if he’ll run in another state office race in the future. He said planned to analyze this race while focusing on his duties as auditor general.

“I’ll probably sit down and examine this,” Wagner said. “What is obvious is the low turnout. And that is due to apathy and voter content with partisan politics.”

Onorato bested three primary rivals thanks to a campaign infrastructure he started building long before them and a massive TV blitz that introduced him to Pennsylvania Democrats at a time when the vast majority of them were still undecided and unengaged from the race. Polls had shown him holding large, double-digit leads going into primary day, and those voters who remained undecided appeared to have broken for him in large numbers. With nearly all precincts reporting, Onorato had won 45 percent of the vote. Auditor General Jack Wagner came in second with about 24 percent of the vote. And despite spending millions on TV ads after a late entrance into the race, state Senator Anthony Williams finished third at 18 percent.

Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel brought up the rear with less than 13 percent of the vote. State Attorney General Tom Corbett easily won the Republican primary for governor, and will face Onorato in what is sure to be a fiercely competitive general election.

“Pennsylvania needs a governor who understands reform,” Onorato told supporters assembled for his victory party at a union hall here. “I am that Harrisburg outsider, and I will take on the special interests.”

A few miles away and a few moments earlier, Wagner—a longtime Onorato foe who struggled to raise money but ran a positive campaign until the end—had delivered his concession speech.

“Unfortunately, in life, some things don’t work out the way you want,” he said. “But that’s OK because we’ve learned a lot from this campaign.”

Williams’ campaign had put together a concert at Temple University in Philadelphia for its election night party, and Williams said he had succeeded in giving public policy issues like school choice—which he repeatedly framed as a civil rights issue—a larger place in the political discourse. His campaign was almost entirely funded by wealthy suburban investors who support school vouchers. “I didn’t lose,” he said, “I just didn’t get enough votes.”

He passed on a chance to voice support for Onorato, who his campaign spent millions trying to bring down with a spate of negative advertising. “I think I’m going to go home and take a nap for a few days, and then I’m going to get back up and fight for the issues I think are most important, and theh we’ll figure out who represents that and speaks loudly and boldly about the things I think are most important.”

Hoeffel, who got into the race relatively late and struggled mightily to raise the money needed, gathered with subdued supporters in Conshohocken. After positioning himself as the liberal in the race, Hoeffel called Onorato to offer his support, and co-campaign manager Lauren Townsend said later that Hoeffel “wants to continue fighting for progressive ideals.”

For Onorato, the victory was a culmination of a political journey that, by some accounts, started the day Gov. Ed Rendell won a second term in 2006. Onorato won reelection as county executive in 2007, but did so while keeping about $2 million in his war chest, a head start that he built into a far more formidable advantage over the next couple years.

With allies close to the governor—and a relationship with the governor himself—many saw him as Rendell’s favored candidate, though the governor never publicly endorsed anyone in the race. The powerful Democratic fundraisers in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh areas settled on him as a candidate early, and he won over other party insiders and activists across the state while building a reputation as a knowledgeable policy wonk.

Three-quarters of likely primary voters were undecided even two months before the election, but at that point Onorato had a war chest of almost $7 million. He started blanketing the airwaves at the end of March, and quickly pulled away from the pack. His message of economic revitalization rooted in his executive experience in a region spotlighted by President Obama for its revival proved well-suited to the political climate. By the time Williams hit the airwaves statewide a couple weeks later, Onorato was already viewed favorably by a significant swath of voters, and efforts to bring him back to the pack did as much to lift Williams’ own negative poll numbers.

Williams won his Philadelphia base by a large margin, but Onorato performed well in other Democratic strongholds across the state, including Allegheny, Bucks, Cambria and Montgomery counties.

Onorato faces a challenging start, having mostly emptied his campaign coffers to assure Tuesday’s win. Corbett spent far less for his expected win against state Representative Sam Rohrer (R-Berks).

In an interview, Onorato downplayed any suggestion that Corbett starts with an advantage, noting that the contested Democratic primary provided a chance to raise his name recognition across the electorate.

“We had a spirited primary and I got a chance to see the state and introduce myself to voters,” he said.

Michael Jones reported from Pittsburgh, Andrew Thompson reported from Philadelphia and Amy Brisson reported from Conshohocken. See a video clip below of Onorato’s victory speech.

Underscoring that, David Plouffe, the campaign manager who brought Barack Obama to the White House, wrote to the president’s famed e-mail list Monday to offer some last-minute words for Specter. “President Obama is committed to seeing Senator Specter re-elected,” Plouffe wrote in the e-mail, sent through Organizing for America, Obama’s campaign arm of the Democratic National Committee. “Whenever he has needed a crucial vote for a top priority, Arlen Specter has been there for our President and this movement. He stood with President Obama on the Recovery Act, which has played a crucial role in getting the economy back on track and Americans back to work. He was the deciding vote in passing the historic health reform law that reduces costs, increases coverage, and ends insurance company abuses. And he’ll be there for the fights ahead — as long as he wins tomorrow.

“Re-electing Arlen is going to take the same effort we all have put in so many times before—spreading the word to friends and neighbors, knocking on doors, and making phone calls,” Plouffe added.

Meanwhile, it’s never too late for endorsements in the four-way Democratic primary for governor. Front-runner Dan Onorato got one late Sunday from state Senator Vincent Hughes (D-Philadelphia), who said Onorato “has the best policies to take Pennsylvania into the future. … Utilizing Dan’s experience, we will be best positioned by interconnecting the strategy of combining an unwavering commitment to education, with a proven record on community based economic development.”

And Jack Wagner rolled out some late-game endorsements of his own Monday, announcing support from state Representatives Florindo Fabrizio and Patrick Harkins of Erie County; Kyle Foust, Chairman and Fiore Leone of the Erie County Council; and national party committeeman Ian Murray.

Well political junkies, it sure has been a crazy primary season. Keep your browsers on pa2010.com Tuesday night, because we’ve got 16 reporters deployed throughout the state, and we’ll be bringing you the most timely and comprehensive coverage of the results you’ll find anywhere in the Keystone State.

And don’t forget to vote!

The Quinnipiac University survey released Monday echoed other recent polls in showing Onorato holding a wide lead over his Democratic rivals. The Allegheny County Executive wins 39 percent of the vote, followed by 11 percent for Anthony Williams, 10 percent for Jack Wagner and 9 percent for Joe Hoeffel. Almost a third of voters are still undecided, but with Onorato enjoying more support than his three primary rivals combined, little time remains for any significant political “game-changer,” so to speak.

“If all the undecided voters went to one of the other candidates, Onorato could conceivably lose,” Quinnipiac University’s assistant polling director Peter Brown said in a statement. “But the odds of that kind of scenario are very, very, very long.”

The survey was the latest in a body of data indicating that Williams’ expensive ad blitz seems to have come up short in terms of moving numbers. Of the likely primary voters surveyed, 68 percent still haven’t heard enough about Williams to have an opinion—name recognition that is much improved from when he got into the race, but still isn’t much better than Hoeffel or Wagner, who have barely advertised. And his attempts to bring down Onorato through a spate of negative advertisements appear to have done just as much to bring up Williams’ negative numbers. Fourteen percent of likely primary voters view Williams unfavorably, compared to just 16 percent that view him favorably. By contrast, 42 percent of likely Democratic voters view Onorato favorably, 9 percent view him unfavorably and 45 percent still haven’t heard enough.

The survey of 951 likely primary voters, conducted May 12 to May 16, had a margin of error of 3.2 percent.

Click here to see the poll.

The survey of 400 likely primary voters showed Sestak topping Specter 49 percent to 40 percent, with 12 percent undecided. It found Onorato garnering 46 percent of the vote, followed by Anthony Williams at 13 percent, Jack Wagner at 9 percent and Joe Hoeffel at 8 percent. Other public polls have shown Sestak and Onorato in front, but not by margins as wide as Suffolk’s findings.

The poll, conducted May 11 to May 13, had a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

Wagner’s comments, in a Harrisburg news conference and a campaign statement later, came after Rendell had lobbed criticism at Wagner and Tom Corbett, the state Attorney General and GOP front-runner for governor. Rendell chided Corbett for advocating cuts in the in state’s motor-vehicle fleet while his office has about one car for every two employees. But the words aimed at his fellow Democrat were more surprising, despite the fact that Wagner’s relationship with the Rendell administration has been notably and publicly icy (“Gov. Rendell says I’m a pain in the butt, and he’s right,” Wagner says in one campaign ad). Rendell criticized Wagner for advocating cuts in state spending while seeking a larger budget for his office.

But Wagner quickly shot back, saying the increased budget request was due to labor contracts out of his control. It amounted to one of the most public spats between Rendell and Wagner to date.

“Get your facts straight, governor,” Wagner said, according to PoliticsPA. “Because that’s one thing the department of auditor general operates on: facts.”

Wagner also talked about the widespread perception that Rendell is supporting Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato in the primary, PoliticsPA reported. Rendell has publicly stayed neutral, but many of the governor’s longtime financial supporters are backing Onorato.

“Clearly, I understand what’s going on in this campaign,” Wagner said. “And I have said right from the start, I have seen the contributors who have traditionally given to Ed Rendell giving to another candidate in this race. So you can’t fool me on that one. You can’t fool the other candidates on that one. You can’t fool the public on that one.

“It’s pretty darn obvious who the governor is supporting in this election,” Wagner added.

In a statement later, Wagner said Rendell’s much noticed weight loss could serve as an example for state government.

“Gov. Rendell has lost weight in recent months, and he looks great,” Wagner said. “What I want to do is put the state budget on a diet.”

“In the last couple weeks, we have witnessed the beginning of many negative TV ads,” the state auditor general wrote in a campaign e-mail to supporters. “We certainly have issues we disagree on, but the tough issues our country and our commonwealth are facing are far more important. My life experiences as a Marine in Vietnam, as an IBEW member, as a small business owner, and as a positive person always looking for new ideas and solutions to complex problems has taught me to listen and to communicate with others. Negative attacks are precisely what have politically paralyzed Harrisburg. It’s no wonder we have had seven late budgets in the last seven years.”

Wagner has been airing two positive biographical spots in limited buys across the state, though there have yet to be reports of the ads airing in the expensive Philadelphia media market. State Senator Anthony Williams (D-Philadelphia) has now aired two ads against Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, who has aired one response ad against Williams. Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel’s first TV spot labels both Onorato and Williams as “flip-flops.”

“Staying positive is also important in making sure our party is strong going into the general election this fall,” Wagner added. “We face a tough climate, where voters are looking for leaders with real solutions, not over-the-top rhetoric or tired political tactics. So over the next week, I’ll ask you to keep positive and keep working hard, and I promise to do the same.”

The surveys released Wednesday echoed a body of polling data that has showed Onorato pulling away from the pack, and their results differed little from other recent polls. In a Quinnipiac University poll, Onorato garnered 38 percent of the vote, compared to 11 percent for Auditor General Jack Wagner, 10 percent for state Senator Anthony Williams and 9 percent for Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel. Almost a third of voters are still undecided.

And a Franklin & Marshall College survey found Onorato winning 27 percent of registered Democrats, a 22-point lead over his closest opponents. His edge was similar among a sample of likely primary voters, with whom he captures 34 percent of the vote, compared to 8 percent for Wagner, 6 percent for Williams and 5 percent for Hoeffel. Forty-four percent of likely voters are still undecided, according to the poll.

In both polls, Onorato performs about as well as he has in other public surveys, but Williams, who has been spending heavily on a statewide TV blitz, has lower numbers than in other recent polls. The Muhlenberg College tracking poll on Wednesday showed Williams winning 15 percent of the vote, and a recent Rasmussen poll had him at 17 percent.

Republican Tom Corbett holds a wide lead over Sam Rohrer in the GOP primary, both polls found. But the Franklin & Marshall survey found that almost half of likely primary voters were still undecided.

In the latest indication that Williams’ massive statewide advertising blitz isn’t having the effect his campaign might have hoped, 72 percent of likely primary voters still haven’t heard enough about him, according to the Quinnipiac poll. By contrast, only 44 percent say the same about Onorato, and the race is undoubtedly his to lose.

“Dan Onorato’s lead over the Democratic field hasn’t really grown over the past week, but with only seven days until the actual voting, his chances of winning the Democratic nomination for Governor certainly are better than the rest,” Quinnipiac’s assistant polling director Peter Brown said. “Although more than half of likely voters say they might change their mind, the odds that enough of them do, and all go to the same candidate other than Onorato seem very, very small.”

Click here to see the Quinnipiac poll.

Click here to see the Franklin & Marshall poll.

The Rasmussen survey released Monday showed Onorato garnering 34 percent of likely voters, about where he has been over the last week. Williams and Wagner both had their best showings of any public polls at 17 percent apiece, while Joe Hoeffel brought up the rear with 9 percent, 23 percent said they were either undecided or wanted some other candidate.

It seems increasingly evident that, at this point, any of Onorato’s rivals need a true game-changer between now and next Tuesday’s primary. Williams continues to cash big checks from school-choice advocates and can stay on the airwaves, but Wagner has yet to demonstrate that he’ll have the money to move much higher in the polls that he has.

The poll also makes clear that Onorato and Williams are the only two candidates with significant name recognition thanks to more than a month of statewide advertising. Just 21 percent of likely primary voters don’t know enough about Onorato to form an opinion, and only 24 percent don’t know enough about Williams. But Onorato has higher favorability ratings, according to the poll.

The survey of 408 likely voters, conducted May 6, had a margin of error of 5 percent.