Preliminary election returns showed Argall winning 32.4 percent of the vote, with Frank Ryan, a military veteran who has run for the seat before, finishing just behind him at 31 percent. Josh First came in third place with about 23 percent of the vote, followed by Allen Griffith at about 13 percent.

Argall will face incumbent Congressman Tim Holden (D-17), who easily topped his primary rival Sheila Dow-Ford, 65 percent to 35 percent.

It was hardly a decisive victory for Argall. After his late entrance into the race, his support within local party organizations likely made the difference against Ryan, a candidate who has run on a district-wide ballot before.

“We’re very pleased by the win,” Argall told pa2010.com in a phone interview. “We understand we have a lot of work to do between now and November but we are very optimistic. You can’t change Washington if you keep reelecting the same Congressman.”

Ryan could not be reached for comment, but Griffith pledged his support.

Dow-Ford, an education policy advocate, had been fiercely critical of Holden’s opposition to health care reform. Argall is expected to mount a competitive general election challenge, in a racy being heavily targeted by Republicans. In a phone interview, Holden said he looks forward to a “vigorous campaign” in the fall.

“I’m very honored and humbled by the support we received tonight,” Holden said. “We won in every county including my opponent’s hometown Dauphin County.”

Dow-Ford, who fended off a ballot challenge from Holden, said she was not prepared to support the incumbent in his reelection bid.

“Moving forward,” she said, the [35 percent of voters who supported her] were affected because of his mediocre record and coward disregard,” Dow-Ford said. “That’s doggone significant and it needs to be acknowledged. Thank you to the courageous folks in my party who stood up for what I believe in.”

The district is currently ranked No. 9 on the pa2010.com Congressional Power Rankings.

The survey to be released Wednesday by the GOP firm Susquehanna Polling & Research found 42 percent of likely voters saying Holden doesn’t deserve reelection, while only 38 percent say he does deserve another term in the 17th District; 20 percent are undecided. The results, first obtained and published by GrassrootsPA, come with Republicans eager to unseat Holden despite the fact that he may have given himself political cover by voting against health care reform legislation.

Holden should have an easy path to renomination next week—he has twice the support of underdog primary challenger Sheila Dow-Ford, an education policy advocate against whom the incumbent spearheaded an unsuccessful ballot challenge.

But the candidate facing the most immediate concern may be state Senator Dave Argall (R-Schuylkill), who high-level GOP leaders are hoping will take a strong fight to Holden in the fall. A plurality of voters in the looming primary are undecided, according to the poll, and Argall is barely outperforming retired Marine Frank Ryan, who has run in the central Pennsylvania district before. In the four-way contest, Argall garners 21 percent of the vote, compared 17 percent for Ryan, a difference within the margin of error for the sample of Republicans. Forty-seven percent of Republicans are undecided, according to the poll.

The automated telephone survey of 1,000 likely voters, including 530 Republicans and 400 Democrats, was conducted May 7-8. It had a margin of error of 3.1 percent for the general election sample, and margin of error 4.2 percent for the Republican primary.

Click here to see the poll, as published by GrassrootsPA.

Argall raised almost $17,000 from April 1 to April 28, according to campaign finance data, significantly less than many other Republican challengers in the state. He burned through about $50,000 during the period, and finished with $71,000 in the bank. Primary hopefuls Frank Ryan and Allen Griffith raised about $11,000 and $3,300, respectively, and Argall enjoys a war chest more than twice the size of Ryan’s.

The three are competing to face Congressman Tim Holden (D-17). who finished the month with about $855,000 in cash on hand. Republican Josh First finished the period with jut over $2,000 on hand. The district is currently ranked No. 9 on the pa2010.com Congressional Power Rankings.

Political insiders widely consider Argall to be the primary front-runner because of his name recognition and party support. He burned through about $50,000 last month, about half of which went to Long Nyquist & Associates, the Harrisburg-based firm that is running his campaign. It remains to be seen if any candidates in the primary will have the resources for any significant amount of TV advertising.

Argall spokesman Josh Wilson told pa2010.com this week that a decision on TV time is still forthcoming.

“We’re fully confident we’ll have the resources to mount a visible campaign through the airwaves and direct contact with voters,” Wilson said. “We anticipate being on the air but we still haven’t made a decision.”

Peter Panepinto contributed reporting.

Griffith, a former minister, said his campaign would be airing radio ads soon, and still hasn’t ruled out some limited TV time. His campaign had a little less than $11,000 in the bank at the end of March, according to campaign finance data.

“We believe we are gaining momentum and will be working tirelessly for the next five and a half weeks until the primary,” Griffith told pa2010.com. “We know of no polling, but believe we will be multiplying our impact as the weeks go on.”

Josh First, another candidate, may be working under a similar budget—he finished the period with a little under $13,000 in campaign cash. And Ryan, a military veteran who has tried to unseat incumbent Congressman Tim Holden (D-17) before, boasted about $34,000 in his war chest at the end of March, making some limited TV ad buys very much an option. He said he plans a mix of radio, TV and direct mail.

“We’re thinking about it, where the polling indicates the greatest center of gravity is,” Ryan told pa2010.com. “We’re looking at more door-to-door and more grass roots orientated.”

Ryan’s campaign manager, Toni Gilhooley, was the Republican nominee against Holden in 2008, and Ryan hopes her experience will help bring similar results.

State Senator Dave Argall (R-Schuylkill), the party favorite and widely-perceived front-runner, appears to be in the best shape for a sustained ad blitz in the final three weeks; he had about $105,000 on hand at the end of March. An Argall campaign aide could not be reached for comment.

Holden is expected to easily win renomination against primary challenger Sheila Dow-Ford.

One of only two House Democrats in Pennsylvania who voted against the newly-enacted health care law, Holden raised about $283,000 during the first three months of the year. He spent about $120,000, and finished March with about $836,000 on hand.

Holden is likely to face state Senator Dave Argall (R-Schuylkill) in the general election, assuming Argall can get through a crowded primary in the central Pennsylvania district. Argall finished the quarter with about $105,000 in campaign cash, according to his campaign finance report.

Among other Republicans running in the 17th Congressional District, Allen Griffith finished the quarter with about $10,000 in the bank, and Frank Ryan has $34,000 on hand, according to his quarterly report.

Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher, who improbably emerged as a conservative icon after John McCain mentioned him repeatedly during a 2008 presidential debate, said Ryan, a retired Marine Colonel, has “outstanding qualifications for public office.”

“I am looking nationwide for candidates who reflect conservative values and whose personal record of service shows they can be trusted to serve us—and not themselves—when elected,” Wurzelbacher said in a statement. “Frank Ryan embodies all these qualities and more.”

In an interview with pa2010.com, Ryan said the endorsement shows he’s serious about helping “disenfranchised” citizens.

“I view Joe’s endorsement as  meaning that we want to bring the disenfranchised Americans back into the fold,” he said. “It’s all a  part of this process that state and federal leaders have forgotten who they work for. We want to get the district back for the citizens and get America back on track.”

Ryan is one of several Republicans, including state Senator Dave Argall (R-Schuylkill), seeking the party’s nomination in the 17th District.

But before the two can face each other in November, they’ll each have to face a primary against underdogs determined to make a dent. Argall’s GOP opponents recently made their first mark, when the Dauphin County Republican Committee opted against endorsing a candidate in the race. Perhaps worried of being anointed by the party in a climate hostile to so-called establishment candidates, Argall reportedly asked local GOP leaders not to endorse. And Democrat Sheila Dow-Ford has vowed to tap into liberal unrest with Holden after he was one of only two House Democrats in Pennsylvania to vote against health care reform legislation last year.

Argall faces a particularly crowded primary, with former minister Allen Griffith, veteran Frank Ryan and businessman Josh First all seeking the party’s nomination. For now, they’re focused like all candidates on gathering the signatures needed to get on the May 18 ballot. In an interview, Griffith said he doesn’t feel like an underdog.

“My challenge is to get my message out,” he told pa2010.com. “I believe I have a really good chance if I reach the people.” Griffith said he decided to run because people are “tired of politics as usual.”

“I’m really concerned about the direction of the county and I feel Holden should be defeated,” he said. “I just felt that I could not lend my support to any other Republican candidates. I want to take this step and go to Washington and make a difference.”

He’s running a low-cost campaign so far, with his son Jeff as campaign manager and a mostly volunteer staff. For Ryan, the crowded primary is familiar, after losing a nominating contest in 2004.

On the other side of the aisle, Dow-Ford has said she’s in the process of building a campaign staff—but did not respond to multiple requests seeking comment about the particulars. In earlier interviews, Dow-ford, a member of the state board of education and a former counsel to the state’s higher education assistance agency, has said Holden’s vote against health care reform was the last straw.

“Candidly, I had a moment of questioning the wisdom of swimming upstream,” she said, “and then a lightning bolt of clarity that this must be done because Tim Holden has not effectively and  honestly represented the interests of the 17th. We need a person who cares about our families, our friends, neighbors and communities. Tim cares about Tim.”

A Holden aide has not responded to message from pa2010.com, but in public comments, Holden has argued that getting challenges from both sides of the aisle shows he’s representing the district well.

Five years after losing in a crowded Republican primary, Lebanon businessman Frank Ryan is once again considering a run for Pennsylvania’s 17th Congressional District.

In an interview Wednesday with pa2010.com, Ryan said he was still a few months away from making a decision. But he has reached out to close friends and supporters in an effort to gauge support and commission a poll examining the potential viability of his candidacy, he said.

“I’ve made no decisions, but I’m definitely thinking of it,” Ryan said.

A retired Marine Colonel and owner of a company that helps businesses avoid bankruptcy, Ryan was one of several Republicans who competed in 2004 for a chance to face off against Congressman Tim Holden, who was defending the newly drawn district for the first time (he had previously represented a now-defunct version of the 6th District for a decade). Since then, Holden has become harder to beat in the new district, a challenge Ryan said he understands.

“I’m more than aware of how difficult it is to defeat an incumbent,” he said. But, he added: “I think people are beginning to recognize more and more that the Blue Dog Democrat may not be Blue Dog.”

In 2004, Ryan finished fifth among six Republican candidates, garnering less than 13 percent of the vote. His candidacy was hurt in part by a spending spree that petered out too early and revelations of what was described in press accounts as a “nasty divorce.”

This time around, with the economy in peril, personal issues are unlikely to carry as much currency. And Ryan said he had learned much from his 2004 effort. He recalled making list of his mistakes, and stopping at 21 items so he could move on.

“I was told politics is not a business and it is,” he said. “I failed to understand that. And I spent way too much money way too early.”

Ryan said supporters approached him about running again in 2006, but he had just returned from a tour of duty in Iraq. With government spending growing, though, he said he’s become increasingly concerned, prompting him to considering runnning again.

“I think I was abot 6 years early in my concerns about government spending. I think peple are more concerned about that than they were six years ago.

“If I did to a corporation what the federal government is doing to our budget and our deficits, I would be fired,” he added.

And he said he wouldn’t run if he didn’t feel people were receptive to his message.

“One of the things I’ve noticed is in the past people’s perception of being a good representative was how much money you brought back to the district,” he said. “If that’s the benchmark people are measuring, I’m probably not the guy. I don’t believe in selling people something they don’t want, and I don’t believe in changing my positions just to get elected.”

It remains unclear if other Republicans are anxious to go up against Holden for the seat, which includes parts Lebanon, Schuylkill and Dauphin counties. Holden last year defeated Republican Ton Gilhooley by almost 30 points.

CORRECTION: This article incorrectly stated that Congressman Tim Holden was a freshman in 2004. While he had indeed represented the newly-drawn 17th District for only one term, he previously held office for a decade in a seat that was eliminated in redistricting. pa2010.com regrets the error.