Lycoming College in Williamsport released a poll Tuesday showing Carney leading Marino 45-39, but that is within +/- 5.7 percent margin of error. The poll results are based on a telephone survey of 296 likely voters conducted Oct. 17-21 by Lycoming students.

Marino is winning Republicans by a margin of 64.4 to 20.8 percent while Carney pulls support from 75.3 percent of Democrats with 16.0 favoring the Republican. Carney is winning self identified independents 49.3 to 38.7 percent. Probably more significantly, 40.3 percent of respondents self-identified as Tea Party supporters and those voters break for Marino 76.8 to 14.7 percent.

“While this race has not been a heavy focal point for Tea Party activity,” said Dr. Jonathan Williamson, chair of the Department of Political Science at Lycoming and director of the College’s Center for the Study of Community and the Economy (CSCE) “a voter’s perspective on the Tea Party movement is a relatively clear predictor of where he or she stands in this close race.”

Both campaigns still face a busy week, though with recent polling showing a significant number of undecided voters. The Lycoming College poll shows 16 percent undecided – more than enough to swing the election. Still that’s lower than the nationwide average of undecided voters estimated at about one-third. The bad news for Carney is that undecided voters nationwide seems to be leaning Republican this cycle.

Last week, a Penn Schoen Berland poll showed the race tied 41-41. Still, New York Times’ polling guru Nate Silver is projecting a Marino win in the district.

Biden will be in Scranton Monday to headline a fundraiser for Congressman Chris Carney (D-10). A Carney campaign spokesman told The Times Leader that Biden, who was born in Scranton and lived there until he was 10, will join Carney for a morning event.

Carney faces a tough reelection fight against Republican Tom Marino in the conservative, northeast Pennsylvania district. The race is currently No. 5 on the pa2010.com Congressional Power Rankings.

Democratic incumbents Kathy Dahlkemper, Chris Carney and Paul Kanjorski are all among those targeted by the ads, which are virtually identical to previous radio spots run by the group. Recently-filed campaign finance data indicates that Americans United for Life is spending about $12,000 on the ad campaign against Dahlkemper. The ads continue a campaign by the group to paint the newly enacted health care law as an expansion of taxpayer funding for abortions.

“The life of an innocent child may not matter to Congresswoman Dahlkemper,” the ad says, “but here in Pennsylvania life counts, and Congresswoman Dahlkemper’s vote has consequences.”

Independent fact-checkers have repeatedly pushed back against claims that the health care law expanded taxpayer funding for abortions, prompting Americans United for Life to come out with its own memo rebutting fact-checkers.

The radio ads coincide with endorsements for some of the same incumbents by the anti-abortion group Democrats for Life of America. The group announced its support for both Dahlkemper and Kanjorski this week.

“Congresswoman Dahlkemper has proven her commitment to protecting life at all stages and I am confident that we can continue to count on her to stand up for what is right in the U.S. House,” Kristen Day, the group’s executive director, said in a statement. “Her leadership has proven her commitment to protecting life and preventing federal funds from being used for abortion. We value her leadership and friendship.”

Click here to listen to the ad against Dahlkemper.

The Lycoming College survey released Monday echoed other public and private polls in showing a close race. Carney is facing a perilous political climate, but has benefited form a massive financial advantage and a seemingly endless series of public relations missteps by Marino. In the poll, Marino garners 43 percent of the vote, compared to 40 percent for Marino. Sixteen percent are still undecided.

Both candidates fare equally well with independent voters. But Carney has actually locked down a larger proportion of Democratic support than Marino has Republican support in the conservative, northeast Pennsylvania district. But in spite of his votes in favor of the Democratic agenda that can be politically toxic here, more than 50 percent of voters still view Carney favorably, and Marino’s negative ratings remain considerable.

“Even though this is a favorable year for the Republicans, many people in the district still don’t know Marino,” Lycoming pollster Jonathan Williamson said. “When they do, it appears that Democrats have had success defining who he is.”

The poll of 370 likely voters, conducted Sept. 26-30, had a margin of error of 5.1 percent.

The National Republican Congressional Committee unveiled the three new spots Monday morning. Two target Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper (D-3) and Congressman Paul Kanjorski (D-11), vulnerable incumbents who have already been the subject of NRCC TV spots. But the ad against Carney marks the first time the national party has gone after the northeast Pennsylvania Democrat on TV this cycle.

See all three ads below.

The Morning Call, citing an anonymous source, reported this weekend that Marino was under investigation by the Justice Department’s Office of Professional Responsibility “for allegedly violating several department guidelines.” That probe was prompted by the revelation that Marino had provided a reference for businessman Louis DeNaples’ gaming reference while his office was scrutinizing DeNaples.

Marino’s relationship with DeNaples has proven a political headache for the northeast Pennsylvania congressional candidate, and the weekend headline was just the latest in a string of bad-news developments for Marino’s bid to unseat Congressman Chris Carney (D-10). Marino initially said he had permission from Justice Department superiors to give DeNaples the reference, but he and his campaign have offered contradictory statements about that permission, and the department says it has no record of any such authorization.

The latest report is the clearest evidence to date that it was Marino’s reference for DeNaples that prompted his exit as U.S. Attorney.

Now, the Republican congressional candidate has changed his tune once again, telling a local newspaper that he never sought authorization from the Department of Justice before he gave Louis DeNaples the reference. His admission, made Monday to The Daily Item, continued a dizzying string of PR missteps by Marino’s campaign in the 10th District, and underscored its inability to put the story to rest in what would otherwise be an exceptionally favorable political climate for the challenger.

Marino told the newspaper he never sought authorization because he was allowed to give personal references, so long as they come from him personally, and not in his official capacity as U.S. Attorney.

“I did it all the time,” Marino said.

Marino resigned as U.S. Attorney shortly after The Morning Call reported on his reference for DeNaples. He went on to represent DeNaples in private practice—leading Democrats to dub him “Casino Marino.”

Even as he and his campaign have changed the story at least twice, they have denied ever making such changes—claims sharply at odds with the available facts. Marino claimed to the newspaper that he never said he had permission from the Justice Department, but he said exactly the opposite during an April interview with talk-radio host Steve Corbett—who has been dogged in pushing Marino to back up his claims.

And Marino now acknowledges that a supposed letter granting him permission does not exist, and claims he never implied otherwise—despite the fact that he said in at least two formal statements that “documents” from the Department of Justice could clear up the controversy and back up his story.

“The radio personality made it up,” Marino said, referring to Corbett. “There is no letter.”

Even as Corbett spent months assailing Marino on live radio for not releasing a letter his campaign told Corbett would be coming, Marino’s campaign never before denied Corbett’s contention that he had been promised release of a letter. Either way, Marino’s admissions that he never got department permission and that “there is no letter” confirm recent reporting that cast doubt on his story.

Congressman Chris Carney’s (D-10) campaign has had a field day with the controversy, and it stayed on the attack Tuesday morning.

“Another day, another lie from Tom Marino,” Carney campaign spokesman Josh Drobnyk said in a statement. “Tom Marino is spinning a tale of lies to the public and it has become clear he will say anything to get elected. He said live on the radio in April that he went to his Justice Department superiors before providing the personal reference for a felon under investigation by his office and was satisfied with their response. Now he says he never sought their permission. He said just days ago that there were agency ‘documents’ that would end this matter. Now he says ‘there is no letter.’ How can the public trust Tom Marino when he continues to insult them with so many lies?”

The race is currently No. 5 on the pa2010.com Congressional Power Rankings.

In the memo, released Monday amid other poll data showing Marino ahead despite troubling headlines for the challenger, Carney campaign pollster Margie Omero writes that “as news of Marino’s failed ethics, integrity and leadership continue to mount, voters have taken notice.” The memo describes a survey of 400 likely voters, which found Carney winning 46 percent of the vote, compared to 38 percent for Marino and 17 percent who are still undecided. That lead is edge is just outside the 4.9 percent margin of error, and mirrors other surveys in depicting a close race in the conservative-leaning district.

“Carney is both better-known and more popular than Marino,” Omero writes.

The survey was conducted Sept. 23-25, just as Marino was being swamped by bad news last week, including revelations that he was targeted for firing as U.S. Attorney in 2006, and that the Department of Justice has no record of him ever having received permission to provide a reference for a businessman his office was investigating.

Having taken unpopular votes in favor of health care reform and the economic stimulus package, Carney’s campaign is mirroring that of other vulnerable Democrats, painting his opponent as inherently untrustworthy. To that end, Carney has a 16-point edge when voters are asked about ethics, and a 15-point edge when voters are asked who is more trustworthy.

Like most internal poll memos, the full survey questions and crosstabs were not available, making it impossible to independently assess the merits of the poll.

Carney’s biggest advantage is name recognition: Eighty percent of voters know enough about him to form an opinion, compared to 54 percent who know enough about Marino. And 49 percent of respondents view Carney favorably, compared to 28 percent who view Marino favorably. Sporting a large financial advantage, Carney has the opportunity to further define Marino on his campaign’s terms.

“Voters are coalescing behind Chris Carney’s reelection,” Omero writes.

Click here to see the poll memo.

A poll by the newspaper found Barletta leading Congressman Paul Kanjorski (D-11) by 11 points, 43 percent to 32 percent. Marino holds a smaller four-point edge against Congressman Chris Carney (D-10), 40 percent to 36 percent.

Both surveys were taken from relatively small sample sizes, yielding large margins of error. But they reflect a generally positive environment for Republicans in the region, especially in the conservative-leaning 10th District. Republicans hope Carney and Kanjorski will prove two of their most vulnerable targets.

A quarter of likely voters in both districts are undecided, according to the poll. The margin of error was about 6.5 percent in both polls.

Marino’s claim that he was authorized to give Louis DeNaples a reference has dogged his 10th District congressional campaign, and it was severely undercut by a recent Associated Press report cast it into doubt. The department essentially confirmed that report by telling The Times-Tribune that it has no record of Marino getting such permission.

In recent days, Marino’s campaign itself has hedged on the existence of any letter granting Marino permission, claiming that neither Marino nor his campaign ever actually claimed a letter existed. But that contention is sharply at adds with previous statements, including recent ones implying that Justice Department “documents” could clear the air.