Wonderling is leaving the Senate to head the Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce and a special election will be held to replace him.

Castor’s dropout is part of a long story of tension between himself and Montgomery County Commissioners Jim Matthews and Joe Hoeffel Castor and Matthews were elected by voters in 2007, but Matthews shunned Castor and angered the Republican Party when he formed a power-sharing agreement between Hoeffel.

Now Castor blames Matthews and Hoeffel for an apparently imminent budget crisis in Montgomery County. In the statement announcing his departure from the race, Castor said, “This year we face a mounting deficit that my fellow commissioners will attempt to blame on the economy, Harrisburg, Washington, and just about anyone and anything else they can. But the fault lies in their reckless pursuit of cronyism, patronage and borrow and spend governance using tax dollars to fuel their appetite.”

Castor makes it clear in his letter that he thinks he serves a vital role as a vocal critic of the policy that is crafted by Matthews and Hoeffel, and argues that he would be doing Montgomery County a disservice by vacating his seat as commissioner.

Hoeffel and Castor both told The Inquirer that Castor’s comments about the Montgomery County budget crisis were an attempt to cover up his inability to gain regional support for the special election. “Now that he realizes he’s not going anywhere,” Matthews said, “if he wants to work as a team, I think that’s great. If he wants to remain negative and obstructionist, that’s his choice.”

Added Matthews: “I will not be roadkill for his ambitions. He can say whatever he wants, but he doesn’t understand county government, and I certainly understand why our neighboring counties chose not to go with him for state Senate.”

Mensch told The Inquirer that he had “firm commitment” from Republican leaders in Bucks, Lehigh and Northampton Counties, which indicates that Castor most likely could not get the support he needed to run for Wonderling’s seat.

With those words, Montgomery County Commissioner Bruce Castor graciously bowed out of the state Senate race. As much as he wanted the Senate seat, working out the critical budget issues in Montgomery County is more important—and he is also keeping his promise to his constituents in Montgomery County.

1. There are signs all over Northeast Philadelphia that read “Lost Jobs?  Blame Arlen Specter” and say something about the Employee Free Choice Act.  But wasn’t Specter leaning toward supporting EFCA?  Boy, it’s enough to make you feel sorry for the guy.

2.  Also, check out the interesting writeup in the Inquirer today about MontCo Commissioner Bruce Castor. State GOP Chairman Bob Asher says he’s “not … on the face of the earth” politically speaking. But the GOP isn’t exactly swimming in talent, and Castor is ambitious and talented. A dollar says he runs for statewide office in the next five years, and maybe even wins.

A couple of predictions while I’m away:

1.  Arlen Specter will continue to make Democrats and Republicans angry while raising a lot of money.  Is this what they mean by “laughing all the way to the bank?”

2.  Bruce Castor will decide to run for some office other than Montgomery County Commissioner. If not the state Senate, how about Congress… or, for that matter, President?  He’s almost as good looking as Sarah Palin, after all, and to the best of my knowledge he buys his own clothes.

3.  The Inquirer and The New York Times will publish additional stories predicting the demise of the Republican Party, leading to an obvious question: If the Party is so irrelevant, why do you write about it all the time?

By the way, if you think item No. 1 is going away any time soon, check out www.specterscorecard.com, a new Web site that evaluates Specter according to the “progressive” criteria of its authors.  So far he’s batting about .500, which is not quite Obama territory, but still better than Manny Ramirez even without a drug test.

You’ve got to admire anyone who can get other people to create Web sites with their name on them—even if they’re not always friendly.

See you in a week.

Montgomery County Commissioner Bruce Castor had expressed interest in running for the GOP nomination for Lieutenant Governor. But an open state Senate seat could change all that.

Castor, a Republican who has been mostly locked out of policy-making because of a power-sharing agreement between Republican Commissioner Jim Matthews and Democrat Joe Hoeffel, had been contacted recently by an ally of GOP gubernatorial front-runner Tom Corbett about being potential running mates. But when state Senator Rob Wonderling (R-Montgomery) was named the new head of the Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce this week, Castor’s name was floated almost immediately as a possible successor.

If he were to win the seat, it would mean a political escape from minority status in Montgomery County to being part of a legislative majority in the state Senate.

Castor didn’t take questions from pa2010.com yesterday afternoon, but released a statement confirming that he’s considering the race.

“Over the last twenty four hours I have been humbled by contact from many Republican Party leaders and citizens from Montgomery, Bucks, Lehigh and Northampton counties encouraging me to seek the nomination to replace Senator Robert Wonderling in Pennsylvania’s 24th Senate District,” he said yesterday afternoon.

He indicated to The Inquirer that it would be nice to be back in a majority.

If Castor does pursue the Senate seat, it would seem to give a leg up to Philadelphia City Councilman Frank Rizzo, who has expressed interest in the race and was also contacted recently by a Corbett ally.

•Earlier on pa2010.com: MontCo GOP feud could spill into Lt. Gov. race
Room for another Philly Republican in Harrisburg?

UPDATE: State Representative Bob Mensch (R-Montgomery) tells PoliticsPA that he wants Castor to stay put. More intra-party turmoil for Castor and the MontCo GOP?

Tom Knox beats Tom Corbett for Governor

Joe Hoeffel over Bruce Castor for Lt. Governor

Arlen Specter over Chris Matthews for Senate

Now, obviously some of these things won’t happen since a majority of these candidates aren’t even in the races, and I thought six months ago Pat Toomey would run for Governor, not Senate. My second round of projections will be coming soon.

P.S. Bill Kurtz came out of nowhere, so did Karen Beyer for Lt. Gov. Who else is next? Send me your thoughts by posting a comment or e-mailing me.

Soon, that toxic climate—and the vitriol Matthews and Castor regularly hurl at each other—could move to a statewide stage, with both Commissioners interested in the party’s nomination for Lieutenant Governor.

Neither is aggressively pursuing the position, but both have made their interest known. For Matthews, it would be a second trip on the campaign trail; he was Lynn Swann’s running mate on the ticket’s unsuccessful big to unseat Gov. Ed Rendell in 2006.

In an interview at his law office here, Castor said he had reached out to state GOP chairman Rob Gleason, but was doing little else, for now, to pursue the race.

“I would be interested in the post if the party leadership and the gubernatorial candidate thought I gave them the best chance to win,” Castor said. “If they don’t, then I’m not interested in the post.”

Both describe each other as politically unfit for the position, an argument that would almost surely intensify if they both hit the campaign trail.

“I would be stunned if anybody would trust Jim Mathtews again, and the Attorney General is much too astute to make such a mistake,” Castor said.

At the same time, each would present political challenges for any gubernatorial candidate whose ticket they joined. Matthews is now something of a pariah in GOP circles because of his alliance with Hoeffel. The fact that his brother, MSNBC commentator Chris Matthews, is seen as a face of liberalism on TV doesn’t help either. Those traits could serve a ticket well in the general election, but would surely make getting there difficult.

Castor, similarly, has his own baggage. Coming from the southeast, like Matthews his only real shot at the office would be paired with western Pennsylvania’s Tom Corbett, the state Attorney General and early GOP gubernatorial front-runner. But Castor and Corbett have feuded before over Corbett’s relationship with Republican National Committeeman Bob Asher, who heads up Corbett’s exploratory committee for governor. The rift was hardened, insiders say, when the state party chose Corbett over Castor as its nominee for Attorney General in 2004. And in the recent corruption trail of former state Senator Vince Fumo, Castor, testifying for the defense, effectively admitted to some of the same type of political usage of government resources for which Fumo was eventually convicted. Hoeffel seized on the testimony, and other Republicans have said they would make it a campaign issue if they ran against Castor.

Castor said he would welcome any opponent bringing it up as an issue.

“I told the truth at the Fumo trial,” he said. “We had a disgruntled employee with a motive to try and make everybody look bad, and bottom line is he was rabidly anxious to get involved in politics, and i was reluctant to let him get involved. When I saw the extent of how untrustworthy he was, I got rid of him.”

Nonetheless, Castor appears to have an early leg-up on building a relationship with Corbett. A political supporter of Corbett recently reached out to both Castor and Philadelphia City Councilman Frank Rizzo to talk about a run. It remains unclear if Matthews and Corbett have talked about it. Matthews did not return multiple messages seeking comment last week. Montgomery County GOP Chairman Bob Kerns also did not return messages.

A longtime Montgomery County Republican insider said it was unlikely that either Commissioner would run for the office because of their political liabilities.

“I don’t see either one of them getting into the race because I don’t think either one of them would succeed,” the party insider said.

Hoeffel, who for months has been content to sit back and let Matthews and Castor snipe at each other, took the same detached approach when asked what it would be like if their feud went to a bigger stage.

“It would be pretty interesting,” he said. “I have no idea how that would play out.”

But at this still-early stage, the Republicans are mostly alone in the field. Only one Democrat has said he is likely to run, and while others have been mentioned as viable, a deluge of Democratic candidates in to the race seems unlikely anytime soon.

So why are Democrats lukewarm to the contest? Many analysts and political insiders think it’s because after 8 years holding the Governor’s Mansion, Democrats are counting on voters to stick to their longtime habit of kicking the incumbent party out of office. Being second-fiddle on a winning ticket can be a career boost—sometimes—but a losing running mate risks a future of political obscurity. For now, Republicans are clearly more confident that they can ride the coattails of their party’s nominee to Harrisburg.

“The Democrats don’t think they can win and don’t want to be part of a losing ticket,” state Republican Party chairman Rob Gleason told pa2010.com in an interview. “This also shows we have some great talent out there of people who see themselves as viable governors down the road.”

Republican political consultant Charlie Gerow added: “It’s indicative of the fact that Republicans think they can win next year.”

In an interview, Abe Amoros, the state Democratic Party’s spokesman and political director, acknowledged the dearth of Democrats in the race, but said it wasn’t unusual so early in the election cycle.

“We’ll definitely have more than a few names that we’ll be hearing about in the fall,” he said.

The one Democrat almost certain to run for the position is Jonathan Saidel, a former City Controller in Philadelphia. Former state Treasurer Robin Wiessmann is also rumored to be thinking about a run. “I certainly have left it open to consideration,” she said recently.

The contrast with the Republican field is striking. Montgomery County Commissioners Jim Matthews and Bruce Castor are both interested in the job. Ditto Frank Rizzo Jr., a Philadelphia City Councilman and son of the city’s former mayor. Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta, a darling of anti-immigration conservatives, it increasingly talked about. So is state Representative Mike Turzai (R-Allegheny), who led the caucus’ campaign committee last year in avoiding the cascade of lost seats many were expecting in a Democratic year (the party lost only two seats). York County businessman Steve Johnson has already declared his intention to run. So has former Erie County Executive Rick Schenker .

Throw in names like former Congresswoman Melissa Hart; state Senate Majority Whip Jane Orie (R-Allegheny); state Senator John Pippy (R-Allegheny); state Senator Rob Wonderling (R-Bucks); state Representative Karen Beyers (R-Lehigh); Chester County Commissioner Carol Aichele and Dauphin County Commissioner Nick DiFrancesco, and the race for Lt. Gov. is shaping up as a crowded one.

“I guess we have a gazillion folks out there,” said Lowman Henry, head of the Lincoln Institute, a conservative think tank in Harrisburg.

Running for Lieutenant Governor is a politically quirky proposition. A victory usually depends on support from the likely top-ticket nominee, and most gubernatorial candidates look for someone who brings geographic to the balance to the ticket. That means the folks from the southeast will likely root for Attorney General Tom Corbett, who hails from Pittsburgh. The candidates from Corbett’s turf will hinge their hopes on southeast Pennsylvania’s Pat Meehan.

“There’s all kind of idiosyncratic things that go into why they win,” Franklin & Marshall pollster G. Terry Madonna said.