send to a friend | print | comment

Is Santorum Actually Running for Vice President?

Former Pa. Senator Rick Santorum, who announced his run for president June 6, is admittedly a long-shot to win the nomination and would likely lose a general election to Barack Obama. A run for the top spot, though, could be enough to earn him a consolation prize in the form of a vice presidential candidacy.

Santorum has long positioned himself as a very conservative and often polarizing figure and that could hurt him if moderate Republicans make up a healthy portion of the primary voters. Santorum, however will be competing against better-known Conservatives such as Sarah Palin, Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann, who has also formally announced for the presidency during the second GOP presidential debate. On the other hand, primary voters might decide to go with the most electable candidate such as Mitt Romney or even Rudy Giuliani who could appeal to more moderate voters.

Meanwhile pundits have begun a narrative that Santorum is a willing attack dog figure even toward other conservatives. While his obvious goal is the White House, Santorum might ultimately have to settle for the vice presidential nominee to a more moderate Republican. The vice presidential candidate can serve as a political attack dog, usually freeing the top of the ticket from most of the mudslinging. This dynamic was particularly pronounced in 2008 with both Palin and Joe Biden taking to that role. Biden also ran for president in 2008 and pulled almost no support.

Another consideration for the GOP is Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes. Though that is down from 21 in 2008 due to the new census numbers, Pennsylvania is still tied for fifth (with Illinois) for most electoral votes. The Harrisburg Patriot News noted that the parties should be very focused on the state because independent and centrist voters make Pennsylvania among the largest of the swing states. Of the others, California, New York and Illinois with their large urban populations tend to be solidly Democratic while Texas remains solidly Republican. Only Florida, with 29 electoral votes, has been a larger swing state. Whereas Pennsylvania leans Democratic, Florida tends to lean Republican.

With so many large states in the solid-Democratic and lean-Democratic column, Republicans should be looking for some edge here. Biden’s roots in Scranton arguably helped Obama win Pennsylvania by ten points in 2008. Santorum might be able to counter that dynamic. Traditionally, vice presidential candidates were selected with their home state in mind and candidates from swing states were expected to deliver their home state.

Admittedly this dynamic changed in 2000 with the selection of Dick Cheney from the solidly red state of Wyoming. Cheney, who essentially selected himself for the post, offered ideological rather than geographic supplement to the campaign. In 2008, neither Biden nor Palin were from swing states and rather took the ideological attack dog role. For his part, Biden brought decades of legislative experience and foreign policy expertise while Palin brought conservative credentials and became the first woman to seek the vice presidency for the GOP. In spite of a propensity for verbal gaffes, neither Biden nor Palin back down from political fights. Santorum could serve in a similar role for the GOP in 2012.

So would Santorum offer both ideological and geographic supplements to a more moderate presidential candidate? His conservative credentials are impeccable and he is a darling of the Tea Party movement. One important criticism of the McCain-Palin ticket was that Palin was too inexperienced and too ideological to be president. This was compounded by McCain’s age and health problems. If the Republicans nominate a younger and healthier candidate – and so far all of them fit that bill – Santorum may be acceptable to voters, especially with his 12 years of Senate experience.

As for geographic balance, Pennsylvanians have long accepted that our track record of nominating presidents ranks among the worst in the nation among states that have produced presidents. As for Vice Presidents, Pennsylvania has only produced one of those, too. George M. Dallas served under James K. Polk and did indeed win Pennsylvania in 1844.

Still, that is no guarantee that Santorum carries the Keystone state for the Republicans. On one hand, Pennsylvania voters did send Pat Toomey, a rather similar candidate, to the senate in 2010. On the other hand, Santorum lost his 2006 reelection bid by 18 points. Moreover, Santorum’s Pennsylvania credentials may be tarnished from the controversy that developed in 2004 concerning his state residency status and whether the Penn Hills School District had to pay the tuition when the Santorums enrolled their children in cyber-charter school. Santorum was raised in Butler, Pa. and attended Penn State, Pitt and Dickinson for various degrees. He still maintains a residence in Penn Hills as well as a home in northern Virginia, close to his work in Washington DC.

Meanwhile, Biden was known as Pennsylvania’s third senator. While Biden represented Delaware, he always had the interests of his native state in mind. The 2008 Obama campaign cast Biden as a working-class Scranton native, a narrative that won over a sizable number of northeastern Pennsylvania voters. The 2012 Obama campaign will presumably run with the same messaging while potentially painting Santorum as something of an absentee senator.

Obviously, eight months out from the first ballots being cast in the Iowa caucuses might as well be an eternity in politics. At the moment, however, Santorum seems like a long shot for the presidential nomination and a dark horse at best for the vice presidential nod. However, if that would happen, expect the bottom of the ticket to serve as important proxies in the battle for Pennsylvania with Biden appealing to the base voters and NEPA working class and Santorum playing to the conservative rural voters and Pittsburgh area Republicans.

July 2, 2011 at 2:14 pm

--Chris McGann

Tags: 2012 presidential election, GOP, PA GOP, pa2012.com, Rick Santorum, Vice President 2012

comments

comments [5] | post a comment