Sestak is finished.

It is a Rasmussen Poll. One day, automated, always favors repubs. Polls are all over the place…

Rasmussen’s polling methods (technology) are becoming increasingly outdated.

It’s about a 5-6 point race, not a 9 point race.

Toomey is still the favorite (70% chance), but Sestake (30% chance) could pull off the upset due to the Dems advantage in registration. They key is getting them out to vote. Right now, the GOP is far more likely to vote than the Dems…which greatly neutralizes the edge the Dems have in voter registration.

Not really all over the place. With the exception of a Susquehanna poll that has a more Democratic electorate than 2008, something highly unlikely for 2010, the polling has been between 5-10 pts for months.

suffolk, time also have the race much closer than 9.

Sestak has been stuck around 40% for months. He’ll end up in the mid or even upper forties on Election Day and still lose the race. Just a bad year for Dems.

now we have insight as to why the DSCC halved its ad buy. This race looks to be shaping up as a definite loss in the dems column. The undecideds just arent there for Joe.

michael-
It’s not anywhere close to 70%. It’s around 95%.
fivethirtyeight.com has an excellent of this race in particular (prior to today’s poll).
in the past 12 years, NO senate candidate haas won who was more than 5.5 points behind in the average poll, this close to the election. that stat has a track record of 68-0. Sestak’s down about 7 overall. This is reinforced by the overall polling around the state.

Adding the Ras poll into the mix, Joe’s chance of winning falls below yesterday’s 5% estimate. unless joe has pictures of toomey with a dead hooker, this race is over.

Dave-What will you and nate do when Sestak is in the Senate? Will you both crawl back under your rocks (we all hope)?

Does anyone have an insight into why the variation among the methodologically similar polls is so severe?

I.e., between the polls with similar sample sizes and demographics (RV vs. LV), the variation in results seems unusually high. It’s not like the larger sample polls are showing one race and the smaller polls are showing another, or the LV polls are showing one result and the RV another. Any thoughts?

Observer-
What do you have against Nate Silver? He’s a very well regarded analyst of election data, who backs up his predictions with explanations of the statistics and his methods. He even weighs pollsters based on their past performance (so, it’s not like he’s treating every poll as equal, but considering the source). He’s doing predictions all over the country.
His extra analysis of the PA race was in response to a read asking specifically about Sestak and how Nate arrived at the estimated chances.

As for me, I’m not hiding under any rocks. I write under my own name, unlike you and many of the other trolls and drones here.
When Toomey is in the Senate, will you stay under your current anonymous rock, or will you come out and admit that Sestak screwed the entire Democratic party?

Facts:
1) If Sestak hadn’t challenged Specter, Specter would have over $10 million for this race, and would need a lot of DSCC money that could be used to save other Senate seats.
2) Specter has always done well with Independents.
3) Specter has fought and beaten Toomey before, and had years of opposition research that emphasized the differences between him and Toomey.
4) Specter would have worked with (not against) the coordinated campaign, state committee, and PA Democratic party that supported him.
5) Toomey would NOT be able to paint Specter as some arch-liberal or puppet of Obama/Pelosi.
6) Sestak running for Congress would be one of the few safe seats, and Meehan probably never would have bothered running.
7) Lentz would probably retain his own seat in the St. Leg (which the Dems are now in danger of losing control of)

The question I posed last spring to some friends was:
Is Sestak being the candidate instead of Specter worth:
$10 million dollars, loss of Joe’s seat, loss of Lentz’s seat and loss of other US Senate seats the funds could have helped?
especially when Specter was the stronger candidate against Toomey.

Joe made a big f*cking deal during the Primary that HE was the one to head up the ticket for Dems. Now the word “Democrat” has been removed from “Joe Sestak, Democrat for Senate” in Joe’s ads and t-shirts.

Observer, you and the other Sestak drones need to accept responsibility for supporting Sestak and recognizing what a blight he has been on the party.

Matt-
The difference between RV and LV is a measure of the apathy among the Dems who may prefer Sestak (when asked), but aren’t energized nor planning to vote.

Indeed.

Looking at the polls again, it seems that the rolling ones show more variation than the one-day snapshots, even though both have similar samples and demographics (compare Rasmussen 9/29 with Susquehanna 9/23-26).

http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/senate/pennsylvania

538.com obviously thought enough of the Susquehanna 9/23-26 to give it a relatively higher weighting, but lower than 1.00, which the larger LV, n~1,000+ polls all received.

But do you agree that compared against the other demographically similar polls, the Susquehanna 9/23-9/26 poll result just seems odd compared against the other LV, n~1,000 polls, all of which show a considerably wider spread? What could account for this? I suppose it could just be a ‘fluke,’ but that’s not a very satisfying answer.

Matt-

The weighing is based on several factors:
1) Track record of pollster (both in number of relevant polls it’s conducted and it’s accuracy/bias stats)
2) amount of time since the poll
3) size of poll

Read this:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/methodology/

and then follow the “the most recent set of pollster ratings can be found here” link in the “Pollster rating” paragraph.

Unlike the knuckleheads, drones, shills and fools who spout off on their cherry picked polls (and tout RV over LV when it suits their purpose), I actually READ the background information on how these polls are conducted and evaluated.
You’ve asked the right questions, and I’m sure you’ll be among the few that actually read this stuff to get the answers.

Dave, Joe Sestak by 8 pts.

DSCC isn’t giving up on Joe.

Independent Expenditure from FEC
9/29/10
DSCC attack ad against Toomey
$240k

This race isn’t over. Joe runs from behind. Toomey is over confident.

Bill-
You are dreaming.

TB-
Link to support your claim, please?

The DSCC has limited resources. They can’t keep flushing money down the SS Sestak.

Look at a GREAT Senator like Russ Feingold, who needs some help. If you ran the DSCC and had $1 million to help only one, who would you pick Feingold or Sestak?

LOL, rasmussen will have Toomey up by 9 on Nov 3rd after Joe Sestak beats him by 8 on Nov 2.
remember republicans vote on Nov. 3rd this year. Like I was dreaming on May 18th Dave. You couldn’t pick the winner in a one man race.

Bill-
A one-man race, with only you, would just have a loser in it.

During the Primary, Rasmussen was your campaign’s favorite pollster. Even though the average polls showed Sestak doing worse, Rasmussen was the poll quoted on the fundraising letters, especially when it showed Sestak beating Toomey.
However, I’m looking at the AVERAGE polls and the analysis by fivethirtyeight.com. Out of 68 Senate races in the past 12 years, where the front-runner lead by more than 5.5 points in the average poll this close to the election, not a single one has lost. 68-0. Sestak chances of beating the AVERAGE polls are less than 5%.

Sestak won in May by deceiving people into believing he was a Democrat. Sestak’s campaign was “I’m not Specter” and “He’s not one of us”.
For the Primary, there were a standard set of Dem values/litmus tests as to which one would represent them. Sestak was able to bullsh*t enough voters OUTSIDE of the SE-PA region.

Well, that isn’t going to work in a General election when large numbers of people believe the swill that Toomey is selling, and don’t believe the Democratic values that Sestak only pretends to believe. Toomey’s not the boogey-man that Santorum was in the minds of voters. Also, Casey was a pro-lifer, so he took that issue off the table for the MANY pro-life one-issue voters who didn’t like Santorum, but couldn’t vote pro-choice.

In the current political environment, if Toomey got caught with a dead hooker, he’d blame her state on the Health Care law.

Bill, you need to come to terms with TWO things:
1) Sestak’s going to lose
2) Sestak deserves blame for putting himself over the party and ruining the ticket. (not just for deciding to run, but also for how he conducted himself when the cameras weren’t around)

Dave, if you decide to hang yourself when Joe wins I’ll give you the rope, a good strong length so it won’t break.

Bill-
Make sure Joe picks an election night venue with lots of rafters. Instead of balloons or confetti, you can drop down the rope and give everybody a turn.

Dave-sems like all the polls are modeled based on the assumption of apathy by dems and repubs who like the president…so you’d agree with me that if that is wrong all these polls go out the window…

sick-
It’s not that they are “modeled on apathy”, but rather measuring it. The F&M poll showed difference of an additional 6 points for Toomey among “Likely voters” vs “Registered voters”.

Total registration as well as Dem vs Rep registration ratio is at a 10 year low. You can’t simply ignore that. In 2006, we had nearly 2-1 Dem/Rep registration ratio, but in 2010 it’s 1.34 to 1. This is a pretty powerful indicator.

In 2009, the Dems got their asses kicked in the statewide Judge races, despite our 1.2 million registration edge.

Statewide for the 2010 primary, 27% of registered Dems voted. However, 30% of the Republicans voted. The Dems were hotly contested, the Reps weren’t. What do you think will happen with the General election being hotly contested?

In the case of Toomey, there are a lot of conservative Democrats who will vote for him on the pro-life and/or pro-gun issues. Some of the polls already show Toomey getting 20% of the expected Dem vote. Obama’s sitting at 40% approval (and Joe’s polling around 40% as well).

Sick, wake up and smell the hot coffee that has fallen on your crotch. Stop complaining you can’t see the forest because the trees are blocking your view.

David D

I agree with all your posts.I refuse to fight with all the so called good D’s that really have no reason for supporting the little admiral, they are just supporting the party win or lose. I will not vote foe Sestak nor Toomey, both are really evil and neither belong in the Senate ! Sestak is going down making the S’s lose the Seat in theSenate4 and pulling many of the good candidates down with him.

Not to worry, Joe will sell his ass on “K” Street

Sestak didn’t screw the Democrat Party, David.
Toomey would’ve beaten Specter in a lanslide. (Funny that he couldn’t beat him in his own party back in 2004, but when you add in moderates and Dems then he would’ve blasted Specter).

Now you could argue that Sestak would’ve retained the House seat for the Dems, but the House is going to flip Republican this year anyway. And every seat is up for re-election every two years. So in the long run that loss doesn’t matter anyway.

Sestak was the Dems best chance against Toomey.

So, Dave…getting past all your smarty pants talk…fair to say that if the modelling is wrong on apathy (which I think it is) then Sestak wins, right? see, you never answered my question.
Sestak always the best chance to keep the seat Democratic and still is…he will win…PA is just not going to go for someone like Toomey who is more out there than rick santorum. Plus, the Dems in Philly have something to prove…sit back and watch it happen.

Bill-
Toomey would have beat Specter in a GOP primary, but not in the General. The Dems would still prefer Specter to Toomey. The Independents who have a mixed Left-Right bag would remain Specter’s base. Toomey is currently capturing the Independents from Sestak. He could not do that to Specter.

The loss of the House doesn’t matter? So, you are saying you don’t mind having Meehan instead of Sestak because the Dems won’t be in the majority?
You’ve completely ignored the $15 million card-toppling effect that Sestak’s decision has had down the ticket.
You’ve taken a likely Specter-Sestak-Lentz victory and turned it into a likely Toomey-Meehan-GOP_leg_guy hat-trick. You must be so proud of yourself.

sick-
The polling is NOT modeling the apathy, it’s measuring it. Your “premise” is equivalent to making up the scenario that the “modeling” is wrong and that Obama really has 70% approval.

The Philly Dems don’t have anything to “prove” other than they were right to support Specter.

Unfortunately, PA is absolutely going to go for someone like Toomey. Sure it’s a bad move, but half the voters don’t even believe in evolution, so it’s no surprise.