The Washington Post

pa2012.com is proud to partner with The Washington Post in bringing our originally reported insider political news to a wide audience of decision makers and opinion leaders across the country.

Close it

send to a friend | print | comment

Murphy pollster sees tight race

Murphy pollster sees tight race

Just weeks before he goes up against the man he bounced out of Congress in 2006, Congressman Patrick Murphy (D-8) is locked in a dead-heat contest. That’s according to his campaign pollsters, who see Murphy holding on a narrow, four-point lead over Republican Mike Fitzpatrick that sits within the margin of error.

Pollsters Jefrey Pollock & Joe Hickerson of the Global Strategy Group described the results of a mid-August survey in a poll memo authored late last month. In two polls of 400 likely voters, Murphy garnered 47 percent of the vote, compared to 43 percent for Fitzpatrick. Both public and private polls have forecast a close race in the Bucks County district, where Murphy holds a significant financial edge but Fitzpatrick is benefiting from a difficult political climate for Democrats. A recent GOP-commissioned poll found Fitzpatrick leading by seven points.

Both candidates have relatively high favorability ratings, according to the poll memo. A slim majority of likely voters say they are inclined to reelect Murphy to a third term, but only 28 percent say they will definitely do so. Murphy is performing better than a generic Republican vs. Democrat matchup. Murphy also holds slight edges, according to the poll memo, when voters are asked which candidate agrees with them on important issues and who has a better plan for job creation.

Results of the survey, which had a margin of error of 4.9 percent, were first reported by The Daily Delco. The full survey questions and crosstabs were not available, making it impossible to independently assess the veracity of the poll.

The race is currently No. 6 on the pa2010.com Congressional Power Rankings.

Click here to see the poll memo.

share001btn Murphy pollster sees tight race

September 10, 2010 at 12:14 pm

--pa2010.com Staff

Tags: , ,

comments

comments [9] | post a comment

  1. Anonymous

    Sep 10th, 2010

    This poll sounds about right. If I were Patlosi or FitzFlop, I would not take anything for granted (and I am sure they are not) but I think the poll shows something that I believe is readily apparent. The GOP candidate should be killing Murphy in this environment … but since FitzFlop is a career polician RINO whose political positions blow with the wind, independents, moderate Dems and far right conservatives are not getting behind Fawkes Jr.

    My prediction: GOP takes the House by 20+ seats. FitzFlop loses. Bucks GOP blames the local tea partiers for the loss and reacts by changing absolutely nothing about the Bucks GOP.

  2. terriem

    Sep 10th, 2010

    Uh-oh. Didn’t Pollock guide Arlen to victory in the Senate primary? Not!

  3. ConservativeWrites

    Sep 10th, 2010

    You’re not kidding anyone anon. The local Tea Party people are focused like a laser beam on taking our country back. No matter how many of you freaky Murph plants try to make it seem otherwise it will not work.

  4. Nick

    Sep 10th, 2010

    Interested people should check out fivethirtyeight.com’s new house projections…pretty cool stuff!

  5. flynnbw

    Sep 10th, 2010

    I love this “take our country back” business. These were the same people who were hollering “treason” whenever anyone said anything even remotely critical of President Bush. It’s ALL our country, whether our party is in party or not.

    I really wish people would stop rooting against America.

  6. Change in 2010

    Sep 12th, 2010

    Murphy’s pollsters wouldn’t be publicizing poor polling results unless they had a good reason. The guy is a two term incumbent who was just appointed to the appropriations committee. If he doesn’t have a lead now, there’s only one direction to go – down. A poll showing him tied with the challenger – within the margin of error -must be the best poll result that they have to talk about.

    This is just setting up the negative ads that Murphy is going to use to swamp the airwaves and try to turn people away from Fitz instead of discussing issues. Murphy has nothing positive to build upon. Fitzpatrick promotes smaller government, restrained spending and rescinding Obamacare. Murphy talks about his glory days in Iraq and earmarks for his go-nowhere green fantasy jobs.

    Murphy is and always has been an empty green suit. No 30 second TV commercial will be able to change that.

  7. Tom Lingenfelter Wins

    Sep 13th, 2010

    Fitz is just another Greedy Pig Lawyer

  8. ShamrockGirl

    Sep 13th, 2010

    Amen to that Change!
    I don’t know about you, but I’ve never based my vote on a 30 second ad. Put your goggles on, wipe away the mud thats coming,do the research,ask the candidates important questions,and base your decision on the facts.

  9. ConservativeWrites

    Sep 13th, 2010

    Did anyone else see last night’s debate on CN8? Fitz was composed and focused on issues. Murph was tongue-tied and flailing.

    I agree with the assesment above – Murph’s going to go ugly negative. How else but with mud can he hide his record of liberal lap dog?

Leave a Reply


- will not be published


pa2012.com blogs