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Kelly up six points in 3rd District

Kelly up six points in 3rd District

Riding a wave of dissatisfaction with incumbents, Republican Mike Kelly is holding a six-point lead against Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper (D-3) six weeks before Election Day, according to a new poll.

The Franklin & Marshall College survey released Wednesday showed Kelly, a Butler car dealer, winning 44 percent of likely voters, compared to 38 percent for Dahlkemper. Eighteen percent of likely voters are still undecided in the northwest Pennsylvania district. Kelly’s lead is slightly smaller when all registered voters are polled.

The first public poll of the race taken this cycle, it confirmed Republican hopes and Democratic fears—that Dahlkemper, a freshman who voted for health care reform in a conservative-leaning district, is undoubtedly in danger of being bounced out of office after one term. Just 38 percent of respondents rate her job performance as “excellent” or “good,” and almost half of registered voters think it’s time for the district to make a stage.

If there’s good news for Dahlkemper, it’s that she still retains a lead in one area—Erie County, the district’s population center where she can try and run up margins to offset losses elsewhere. And Dahlkemper’s financial edge could make the difference in a close race that is inside the margin of error.

Only 36 percent of voters in the district approve of the job President Obama is doing, and only 30 percent approve of Gov. Ed Rendell’s job performance. The Republican candidates for governor and senate also hold leads in the district, but with about a third of voters undecided in each race.

The survey, conducted Sept. 14-19, had a margin of error of 4.5 percent for the 482 registered voters, and 4.8 percent for the 418 likely voters.

Click here to see the poll.

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September 22, 2010 at 10:39 am

--Dan Hirschhorn

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comments [20] | post a comment

  1. Petrolia Pete

    Sep 22nd, 2010

    Hey – Maybe she should do what the other Blue Dogs are doing. That is, distancing themselves from the HealthCare Legislation and Obama’s crazy spending.

    Hmmm… I guess she can’t do that. She was one of the key votes for the Healthcare legislation. And, “…made an impassioned plea on the House floor in July…” for the legislation(From the Sharon Herald). And she voted for the stimulus without reading it. I wonder who told her to do that ? Hmmm…

    Oh, but she DID vote no to the first stimulus in Oct 2008 according to her commercials. Oh wait, she wasn’t in Congress yet. That’s odd… I wonder how she voted no? Sheesh!

    The folks in Erie would do well to consider the candidates demonstrated values (not just the talk) and place less consideration on which part of the district they are from. We would all be better off.

    Read Mike Kelly’s Bio as written by a local NBC affiliate. Paste this link into your address bar http://www.wpxi.com/politics/25102516/detail.html
    to learn more about him.

  2. Jim

    Sep 22nd, 2010

    Pete, I think you are confused about the difference between the stimulus and the bailout.

    Folks in Erie would do well to consider what would happen to us if some knucklehead from Butler is elected as our representative in Congress. Kiss help for creating jobs at GE, airport expansion, protecting the lake and Presque Isle, etc goodbye.

  3. Pete

    Sep 22nd, 2010

    Nice try Jim.

    Whether you like it or not the House will be controlled by Republicans starting next year. If the folks in Erie are really concerned about creating jobs at GE and all that other stuff, it would be much better to be represented by a member in the majority party.

    Besides all representatives work hard to help their local districts regardless of party. The question is do we want to continue with a Pelosi “rubber-stamp” or try something new.

    I for one, will be voting for Kelly.

  4. flynnbw

    Sep 22nd, 2010

    She’s not a rubber stamp … she did vote against cap-and-trade (I didn’t agree with that vote, but nonetheless she bucked the party leaders on it) and she supported the Stupak Amendment, much to the consternation of House liberals.

  5. Gerry

    Sep 22nd, 2010

    Nice try Pete. The bio was written by the Kelly campaign not the NBC affiliate. Getting tired of hearing about past glory days and how he’s just like us. Blah Blah Blah!

  6. Pete

    Sep 22nd, 2010

    flynnbw,

    The fact that she holds this seat helps puts Democrats in charge which advances the hard-left agenda of Pelosi. Her throw-away vote on cap & trade is meaningless because it passed the House with votes to spare. Her vote on the final version of Obamacare, (minus the Stupak Amendment, so much for her “pro-life” stance) was critical so she followed the party line!

    Time for her to go!

  7. Jim

    Sep 22nd, 2010

    My favorite part about Kelly’s glory days is that he didn’t play one down of football at Notre Dame, and yet continues to talk like he was some sort of all star. What a joke.

  8. Ralph

    Sep 22nd, 2010

    Kelly’s already a rubber stamp for the Tan Man Boehner who he supports for Speaker. I don’t think you can talk about rubber stamps when he’s one already without even being elected. I think Kelly would be for corporations and the rich and not for struggling unemployed workers like me – and I’m not lazy Jim, just a laid off worker from Mercer.

  9. Bob T.

    Sep 22nd, 2010

    Mike Kelly is an honest man and I am glad to see the polls in his favor.

    His opponent had her chance and she has done nothing but broken campaign promises like that Bum that is our President.

    I am a life-long Democrat, but quite frankly……they both are terrible, terrible, terrible politicians. What I mean by that?? They cant even lie well.

    Robert T.

  10. Ralph

    Sep 23rd, 2010

    Maybe that’s because they are not politicians. Kathy is just a regular person and she has done a pretty good job under difficult circumstances.

  11. Georgia

    Sep 23rd, 2010

    I was for Paul Hubber in the primary because I live in Meadville. Now I will be voting 4 Mr. Mike Kelly. im Very happy to see him winning in these telephone polls.

    Mr. Ralph; Ms. Dahlkemper is a rich, millionaire wife. She call Mr. Kelly a millionaire. That is like the pot caling the kettle black. She is a milionaire liar of a politician. She is LYING all the time now.

    Vote 4 Mr. Mike Kelly :0)

  12. Curls

    Sep 23rd, 2010

    I was told by her congressional office, Dahlkemper was pro-choice. That was right before the women hung up on me.

  13. Chad

    Sep 24th, 2010

    Dear NumbersUSA Activists:

    Mike Kelly has not taken our Immigration Survey and we do not know how he stands on Amnesty? On E-Verify? And, on Birthright Citizenship?

    Please help us get Mike Kelly to fill out our Immigration Survey so each and every one of you will know where Mr. Kelly stands on Immigration issues. Here’s what you can do:

    Call his Office and Ask him to fill out the Survey
    His staff can print the Immigration Survey right from our website
    http://www.numbersusa.com/content/elections/races/congressional

    Mike Kelly for Congress
    724-256-8941

    Email the Survey to his Office
    Immigration Survey
    http://www.numbersusa.com/content/files/2010congresssurvey.pdf

    Mike Kelly for Congress
    Josh josh@mikekellyforcongress.com
    Jon jon@mikekellyforcongress.com

    Print the Survey and Mail it to his Office
    Immigration Survey
    http://www.numbersusa.com/content/files/2010congresssurvey.pdf

    Mike Kelly for Congress
    PO Box 476
    Lyndora, PA 16045

    It is important that you know where your candidates stand on Immigration issues. The NumbersUSA Immigration Survey is the #1 tool that you can use to get information on candidates and to get your favorite candidate on the record standing for Lower Immigration Levels.

    Please email me at chad@numbersusa.com with any information from his office, notes from your calls and emails to his staff.

    If Mike Kelly does not fill out our Immigration Survey, we can only assume that he supports Amnesty for Illegal Aliens, he supports giving away jobs from Western PA workers to foreign workers, and that he thinks babies born to illegal aliens should be U.S. Citizens. Is this right? Get Mike Kelly to fill out our Immigration Survey today.

    Thank you for all your support!

    Chad MacDonald
    Director, Social Media Marketing
    NumbersUSA

  14. District 3

    Sep 27th, 2010

    Any Republican who cannot win in the current political climate should examine themselves and their message.

    Kelly will most likely win, but it won’t be because he is such a great candidate. It will be because people do not like the Democrats and the agenda they have forced upon us and no other reason.

    If issues were in any way different, Kelly would not have a chance at all.

  15. House « Pennforge

    Sep 28th, 2010

    [...] dating 7/28 – 8/1 indicates a double-digit lead of 14 points by Kelly; a more recent poll by Franklin & Marshall for 9/14 to 9/19 indicates a 6 point lead by Kelly [...]

  16. jake

    Sep 29th, 2010

    it looks like kelly is trending the wrong way. the more people know about him the less they are inclined to support him. i’m betting on dahlkemper

  17. Chad

    Oct 4th, 2010

    Since when is it a bad thing to earn money? Every time I hear Libocrats behaving like being a car dealer is a bad thing, I want to vomit. Mr. Kelly EARNED his money, thank you very much. He employs many people. He has run a great business for many years. In what wacko universe is that a BAD thing? That’s right. It’s the dying few who still haven’t gotten the memo that Obama/Reid/Pelosi are killing this country.

    I’m sorry but I just get angry. If you agree with Kathy, then vote for her. Attacking Mike for his hard work, however, is downright un-American.

  18. Jason

    Oct 5th, 2010

    This comment chain is just like Washington. A lot of name calling and finger pointing.

    I am a registered Republican but have voted acorss party lines on occasion. I did vote for Kathy Dahlkemper, mostly because I had grown so tired of Phil English.

    I do not regret my vote but I will be staying home altogether this election cycle. I do not support Kathy and while I do want to vote Republican, I will not vote for Mike Kelly.

    Running on the fact that you played at Notre Dame gives you absolutely zero credibility to run this country. Especially when we know MIKE KELLY NEVER PLAYED A SINGLE DOWN.

    I’m tired of the spending, but when Mike Kelly accepts over $600K from a bailout he rails against, I cannot trust him.

    And my favorite, as I watch Mike McCoy (who doesn’t even live in the district) endorse Mike as a “family man” with great “values.” Apparently Mr. McCoy doesn’t know about the well-known extra-marital affair Mr. Kelly had.

    Looks a like a lose-lose in PA-3

    JD

  19. Butler Native

    Oct 5th, 2010

    Mike kelly is very well liked in Butler because of his commitment to the area. I believe he will do the same in DC for the entire district.

    and BTW – Mike Kelly is NO adulter. Jason, either you have the wrong Kelly or you are a plant for Kathy “D” trying to bring down a good man’s reputation.

    Can you say…Desperation

  20. eddie1247

    Oct 13th, 2010

    “Be careful what you wish for,lest it come true”

    Ahhh yes lets bring back those golden days of yesteryear when George Bush and the republicans ruled the house and senate.

    “He who forgets history is doomed (or condemned) to repeat it”

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