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Poll: Independents fuel 15-point edge for Corbett

Strength with independents, high favorability ratings and voter dissatisfaction with the direction of the state have propelled Republican Tom Corbett to a 15-point lead in the race to be Pennsylvania’s next governor, according to a new poll.

The Quinnipiac University survey released Tuesday found Corbett, the state Attorney General, garnering 54 percent of the vote, compared to 39 percent for Democratic nominee Dan Onorato. The proportion of undecided voters has dwindled seven percent, and more Onorato supporters than Corbett supporters say they might change their minds before Election Day, laying out a difficult path for the Democrat six weeks before Election Day.

The results tied for the biggest lead Corbett has held in any public poll in months; a Reuters/Ipsos last month also showed him winning by 15. Most public polls for months have found Corbett ahead by high single-digits or low double-digits. Both candidates have escalated their TV advertising campaigns in recent days, but both enjoy similar name recognition at this point, with Onorato hampered by higher negatives.

“An Onorato victory probably would require a sea change among independent voters who are now strongly in Corbett’s camp and often are the group that decides elections,” Quinnipiac assistant polling director Peter Brown said.

Both candidates hold overwhelming leads from within their respective parties. With 1.2 million more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state, a strong Democratic turnout could change the equation. But few are forecasting that kind of turnout during what many expect to be a Republican wave year.

Corbett leads big among men, and Onorato leads big among women. Corbett leads 56 percent to 29 percent among independent voters, and it’s here that Onorato’s favorability ratings are particularly troubling for Democrats. Fifty percent of independents view Corbett favorably, and 17 percent view him unfavorably. By contrast, only 33 percent of independents view Onorato favorably, with 29 percent viewing him unfavorably. Corbett also gets higher marks on rebuilding the economy and handling the state budget.

With widespread dissatisfaction directed at state government and Democratic lame-duck Gov. Ed Rendell, being a Democrat is hardly a boon for Onorato.

“This election is playing out across a pessimistic electorate,” Brown said. “When voters are unhappy with the status quo they look for change and since the two best known Democrats—President Barack Obama and Gov. Ed Rendell—are not on the ballot this year, they are taking their frustrations out on any other Democratic target, and that is Dan Onorato.”

The survey of 684 likely voters, conducted Sept. 15-19, had a margin of error of 3.8 percent.

Click here to see the poll.

September 21, 2010 at 9:16 am

--Dan Hirschhorn

Tags: Dan Onorato, Tom Corbett

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