Ouch. Those are some bad numbers.

Sestak and Onorato are both trailing by 10% in Murphy’s district, and Murphy himself is behind by 14%. That’s bad when you are the incumbent in your own district.

This indicates two things:
1) The “Iraq War Vet” card has worn thin since Bush is out office and Dems don’t need someone to fight the president.

2) Murphy’s Blue-Doggy-ness is finally catching up to him among the liberal Dems in the base, which isn’t excited by his conservative voting record.
The spread is 4% among registered voters, but jumps to 14% among likely voters. This means that Pat hasn’t enthused the Dems that may prefer him enough to vote.

why does it poll 95% in bucks cty when 7% of the district is in Philly? why is it polling a greater number of repubs than ds?

How about this question, Why does Buck County have Philly in it’s district?

Bigger question… will Gloria Carlineo retain her bright future by jumping on the bandwagon and securing a seat at the table or will she scorch the earth and render herself trivial? Elephants have looooong memories.

@ Questioning Ask the Rethugs. They drew the current districts.

Just some observations:

57% of the respondents were over the age of 55. Wouldn’t that produce a result that skewed Republican?

100% of respondents said they voted in the 2008 Presidential. 48% said they voted for Obama while 49% said they voted for McCain. Obama won Bucks 53.8% (179,031) to McCain’s 45.1% (150,248) in 2008.

Sestak is down by 9% with 30% undecided. Onorato is down by 8% with 34% undecided. they have plenty of time to close that gap with the indy and undecided voters. Considering Toomey has been on the air since late May his lead is pretty slim.

Murphy is down by 10% with 17% undecided which clearly means he has a tough road ahead. One particular piece of info that may not be as bad for Murphy as some think: 29% say Murphy has done “only a fair job” as Congressman. I’d like to know what percentage of that 29% are dissatisfied liberals(the Dianos of Bucks County)that will vote for Murphy anyway.

Re “How about this question, Why does Buck County have Philly in it’s district?”

Because every district has to have the same population.

Fitz, the challenger, has almost broken above 50%?Murphy can’t even muster 40%? Wow. Five weeks is still a long time before an election, but this is a huge embarassment for Murphy.

Perhaps if he had spent more time listening to constituents and less angling for party advancement he might have some support from his district. His next move will be the one to watch. Will he finally try to explain his own voting record and his support for unpopular programs, or will he just dial up the negativity against Fitz? It would be refreshing if he did the former, but his history dictates he’ll do the latter.

Murphy isn’t a blue dog. He’s a BHO rubber-stamp who voted with Pelosi 97% of the time and that’s why he’s done after two terms. Good riddance

This is Great News!!!! Bucks County will have Mike back!

Not sure how many of you live in the 8th, but Murphy held NO town hall meetings…he insulted us by giving a tele-town hall with pre-screned questions and no follow-up! HE held a Q&A at an ACME market and called it a town hall. He gets 50% of his money from outside the district. He wrote an opinion piece for our local paper earlier this year…you know where it was posted FIRST? HUFFINGTON!

@TB

“100% of respondents said they voted in the 2008 Presidential. 48% said they voted for Obama while 49% said they voted for McCain. Obama won Bucks 53.8% (179,031) to McCain’s 45.1% (150,248) in 2008.”

Considering that Obama’s approval is now at 37% in the district according to the poll, any likely voter poll should reflect that change as well as the enthusiasm gap which is pretty well documented. Giving Dems 48% in the poll and Repubs 49% seems about right in line. If anything the poll may under represent Independents but that wouldn’t likely help Murphy much now would it?

Bucks has a high senior population but it isn’t likely to be 57%. That said it could well be the case that 57% of the voters who do turn out are seniors so the turnout model here is the key.

@DavidDiano
“Murphy’s Blue-Doggy-ness is finally catching up to him among the liberal Dems in the base, which isn’t excited by his conservative voting record.”

97% isn’t liberal enough for you? I am sure Murph would be in much better shape had he voted with Pelosi 100%. Keep telling yourself that, please.

again…why was the Philadelphia portion of the district underpolled? the district is significantly more democratic than republican…methinks these pollsters out-think themselves

@sick of it all

On what basis are you concluding the Philadelphia portion of the district was underpolled? 3% of the respondents were from Philadelphia which is pretty consistent with the census. The district is not significantly more Democratic, Cook rates the district D+2. Nate Silver evaluated the district based on other factors and Murphy would stand a 34% chance of being elected without the benefit of incumbency. There is absolutely no logical way to conclude this district is significantly more democratic.

CW:

The earth was long ago scorched, and she is, always has been, and always will be, trivial.

Fitzpatrick is crushing in traditional Dem strong holds like Croydon,Bristol,Levittown. He has been campaigning in lower part of District most of the time.

Murphy is using the same polling strategists as Arlen Specter. They squandered his lead and his resources. They have done the same with Murphy. Nuff said.

7% of the district is in Philadelphia. The district’s registration favors democrats. The poll is skewed I do not know why.

It is freaking over, man. It is over.

This race is far from over. It’ll be a horse race to the finish.

TB, wake up, man. Ed Rendell is too much weight to carry around. He has to get out of the news if any of our guys have a chance to win. It is freaking hell out here with Ed being the lead face for our party in Pennsylvania.

this is a dog fight not a horse race
it will be real nice in October

I am not voting for Mike, even if Carlineo endorses the RINO. Not voting for anyone in the Congressional race on November 2. Go Toomey, Quinn, etc.

And SeaBee, weren’t you a big James Jones supporter? How did that work out for you?

PA2010 Reader:

James Jones never had a chance to win. He ran a lethargic campaign. I liked him as a person, and given his military beackground, I felt he was ostensibly qualified to run for office. But, his loss was no suprise.

On the other hand, GLORIA CARLINGENFELTER was mouthy, unqualified, and as CW suggests, simply trivial.

fitzpatrick is ahead- murphy is gonna get rude- just you wait and see-

I supported Carlineo in the Primary. I’m surprised and disappointed that she was not gracious in defeat and even more surprised that she’s not seen the light since that time.

She can *still* salvage her credibility and her political future, I believe.