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An economy-based Power Rankings reshuffle

Less than 50 days before voters go to the polls, economic indicators increasingly point to a recover that is, at best, progressing much too slowly. The economic headlines of recent weeks mean that voters’ perceptions of the economy have likely been cemented, with little time left for Democrats to change the political narrative at a national level.

That means Democrats have steeper hills to climb in localizing races against the national political climate. And with that in mind, we offer up a mid-September reassessment of the pa2010.com Congressional Power Rankings, Pennsylvania’s most comprehensive, richly reported political forecast.

The open seat in the 7th District remains the state’s most competitive race, still followed by imperiled incumbents Paul Kanjorski and Kathy Dahlkemper in the 11th and 3rd Districts, respectively. But after that, we’ve shaken things up.

The Democratic Party’s two viable House challengers have each found their races moved down a couple slots—a change that has little to do with their own campaigns and much more to do with the national climate they are running against. The 6th District, where Democrat Manan Trivedi is challenging incumbent Republican Jim Gerlach, changes from No. 4 to No. 6. Similarly, the 15th District, where Democrat John Callahan is taking on incumbent Republican Charlie Dent, moves from No. 5 to No. 7.

That means some Democratic-held seats have become more competitive, most notably Patrick Murphy’s 8th District, which now sits at No. 4 on the rankings. Republican challenger Mike Fitzpatrick’s strong fundraising, an anti-Democratic climate and polling data we’ve seen all contributed to this change. Political forecasters increasingly see the Bucks County race as a battleground. No race has become more competitive since we inaugurated the Power Rankings—it’s moved from No. 10 all the way to No. 4.

Another GOP challenger whose fortunes seem to have improved is Tom Marino. His challenge against incumbent Democrat Chris Carney has been moved from No. 10 to No. 5. Despite Carney’s massive financial advantage and Marino’s less-than-disciplined candidacy, we’re increasingly seeing a political climate hostile to Carney’s vote in favor of health care.

There is less change near the bottom of the 10 races we consider to be in play. Tim Holden’s 17th District has moved down to No. 10, after his Republican challenger has struggled to raise money. The incumbent protected himself by voting against health care reform, as did Jason Altmire in the 4th District, which is currently No. 9. The rematch in the 12th District remains put at No. 8.

CHECK OUT THE NEW POWER RANKINGS

September 13, 2010 at 11:01 am

--pa2010.com Staff

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