Maybe it’s difficult to find people who honestly admit they voted for Obama? How many people can you find to admit that they voted for Mondale over Reagan? I think most obamabots are seeing him for who he really is and are becoming ashamed and embarrassed to have voted for him.

Two and a half months before the election and Sestak is still struggling to hit 40% in Democrat Pennsylvania? Shocking.

The PPP poll is revealing, citing GOP enthusiasm, unaffiliated voters easily siding with Toomey over Sestak and Obama’s negatives. This is the political perfect storm for Toomey and countless other Republican candidates around the country. 2010 will surely be another wave election.

small ad buy? that shit is on alllll the time. that wasn’t small. and it also wasn’t a public number.

and it also hasn’t moved Toomey’s numbers. He is dead in the Water, just like Arlen couldn’t draw more than 52% and also had no where to go but down. Toomey’s hit his ceiling of 47%.

Shocking to me how well Toomey is doing. He is running a fantastic campaign.

Bill-
It has moved Toomey’s numbers. Toomey has gone from 4 points down right after Sestak won the primary to a consistent 6-7 point lead for several months and now to a 9-point lead.

I’d say that his ads are keeping him ahead and preventing Sestak from making gains. Sestak has no money to spend this early, so Toomey is effectively making deposits that are beginning to bear interest.

While I am firmly convinced that Obama and the Democrats actions saved the country from economic collapse, the recovery is weak and the jobs numbers are not improving quickly enough. Even though Toomey is wrong on the economy, he will have trouble preying on fear and uncertainty.

Sestak’s about as exciting as watching paint dry. He will try to run away from Obama (and job-gate), so he can’t take advantage of having his party in the White House. Obama’s not going out on as limb (again) for Sestak. Sestak is not really embracing the statewide campaign and generating synergy.

Toomey is going to have enough money to start advertising full steam a few weeks sooner than Sestak, who won’t have thief funds to respond that soon and then have enough to cross the finish line.

Basically, the most likely scenario is Sestak losing and dragging the rest of the ticket down with him.

Toomey could be 20-points ahead in the polls the week before the election, and Bill would still be planning Joe’s victory party.

woooo hooooo! This is Great News! Go Toomey Go!

K-
It’s not really news. Toomey’s been the favorite since Specter was taken off the board.
fivethirtyeight.com had the race at 62% chance of GOP win. That estimate will be updated next Tuesday when they get onboard the NY Times as a new feature and release new analysis.

Sestak was down big early against Specter. He wasn’t spending then and he isn’t spending now. He found a way to win the last time. I believe he will find a way to win this time too. Opposition research on Toomey at the hands of Neil Oxman will be devastating for Toomey. Toomey knows this. Toomey also knows that there isn’t a damn thing he can do about it other than wait it.

TB

Fundamental problem. Specter didnt pound away early. Toomey is. Thats a big problem for Sestak.

TB-
Toomey’s not running against Sestak. He’s running against the policies of the Democrats and Obama. This election is a referendum on Obama, the Democrats, the stimulus and people’s perception of the direction of the economy.

Oxman can put out a clip of Toomey being in favor of cannibalism and it won’t make a damn bit of difference to people who are out of work and who blame the Democrats instead of the Republicans for their misery. Joe spend the Primary touting that he was the “real” Democrat in the race and that Specter couldn’t be trusted to vote with the Dems. Toomey’s going to hang Sestak by holding him to those declarations and their implications.

Steel-
I agree that if Specter had come out earlier, he could have burnt up Sestak’s funds and done better. Unfortunately, Specter got caught in the anti-incumbent wave and was punished for past misdeeds.

Anybody who tries to compare this General Election to the Primary is an idiot.

Sestak won the Democratic Primary that was cleary a referendum on Arlen Specter. The issues were irrelevant during the primary because Specter and Sestak for the most part were on the same side of things. But if you take the Arlen’s party switch, add to that a damaging sound clip in a commerical, plus Specter’s age then its no suprise that Sestak wins with 53% of the vote all of whom are Democrats.

But in this General Election you got Sestak and Tommey who are polar opposites in regards to the issues. And if anybody has seen Sestak speak you’ll see that he’s not an eloquent or charasmatic figure and quite franly he comes off as a phoney politician. Toomey on the other hand is a likable guy; and even though I disagree with him on just about every issue the fact that he’s charasmatic will bode well with independent voters. And unlike the Democratic primary, Sestak can’t run on the fact that “I’m not the other guy so vote for me” which sums up exactly how he ran against Specter. Plus this election is a referendum on Obama and the Democratic Congress. The conservative base is very motivated right now in comparison to their opposition.

Plus look at the numbers from both the Republican and Democratic primaries:

1,055,780 Democrats voted in hotly contested primary that garnered national attention in the weeks leading up to the election. On the other hand 824,745 Republicans voted in a primary in which most people would agree that Peg Lusik had pretty much no chance at defeating Pat Toomey. That’s only a difference of 231,035 votes between two highly constrasting primaries and its evidence of how much more motivated the Republicans are.

If over 800,000 Republicans came out to vote in a primary that lacked a serious challenger then imagine how many more Republicans will come out to vote in a general election against a Democrat. Plus rememeber that 487,217 Democrats voted against Sestak in the primary. Most of these voters will go with Sestak in the general but there will be some that go with Toomey. The add to that the conservative media and FOX News stoking the flames then this base is going to be very motivated.

Real Clear Politics, a great compendium of polling and other coverage, has changed this race from “Toss Up” to “Lean Republican.” As David mentioned, Toomey’s team has astutely crafted his message to be anti-Democratic policies than anti-any particular candidate, which makes him look more like a statesman than a politician.

Labor Day is in less than two weeks, with the momentum decidedly anti-incumbent, and with the ca$h figures even more anti-Sestak. Sestak’s work ethic may have paid off in a local congressional race where he needed to cover less physical geography, but it won’t pay off nearly as much in a STATEWIDE race.

Toomey may as well start picking out furniture for his office in the Russell building now, and Democrats in PA should be writing self-addressed thank you cards for flushing this seat down the drain.

I think I can make a killing on buttons and T-shirts: “Don’t blame me. I voted for Specter.”

Well during the primary I had said that any Democrat who voted for Joe Sestak instead of Arlen Specter was simply paving the way for Pat Toomey to take over that Senate seat. Specter was the much stronger candidate to run in the General Election. Specter would’ve garnered support from Democrats across the state along with Moderate Republicans who thought Pat Toomey was too conservative. TJ Rooney was right when he said that a Sestak victory in the Primary would be cataclysmic. The Republicans have a very good chance at taking control of Specter’s US Senate Seat, Sestak’s US House Seat, and Lentz’s PA House Seat all because of Joe Sestak’s personal or better yet selfish amibitions.

JOE SESTAK IS THE WORST THIS TO EVER HAPPEN TO PA POLITICS!!!

Every dark cloud has a silver lining.

This dark cloud’s lining is that even though we’ll wind up with a Senator Toomey in November, Joe Sestak will finally be expunged from Pennsylvania. This shouldn’t take too much physical work, because he has ABSOLUTELY NO ROOTS in our community besides some rented office space and a condo that he owns on paper but that his brother lives in.

It’s like that 80s song: “Sail away, sail away, sail away.” Goodbye Joe. Thanks for accomplishing nothing as our congressman.

Toomey is a Wall St crook and a political joke, at best…
Believing Rasmussen Polls are like believing in Faux news or in the tooth fairy…
Joe will win in November and help our great State recover …

Matt-
As long as Lentz wins, I’d agree with you. If Lentz were to lose, Sestak might return to get back in Congress.