This is the SAME result as the Rasmussen polls from June 29th and July 28th. Maybe it’s an “end-of-the-month” effect. Because the gap expands during the middle of the month polls.

It’s such an odd fluctuation, that it almost seems like a pattern.

If the “pattern” holds, the gap will increase again for the mid-Sept poll by a few points.

So far, it looks like 6-points is the baseline/starting point for this race, with Toomey getting fluctuations in his favor, before it settles back down to 6.

This poll changes nothing.

The election is going to be a referendum on Obama and the economy. Sestak’s going to be seen as a proxy for Obama’s and the Dems handling of everything. Joe touted his 99 and 44/100% “Ivory purity” with the Dems during the primary, and now he’s going to sink or swim based upon that association.

reuters poll just out has pat up 10, 47-37, bigger than the six point margin Ras is showing. so much for the Ras house-effect. the dems will shortly write-off this race and focus on more winnable contests in Colo., Calif., Wash., Wis., Nev. and Ky. (and continue to quietly push crist in Fla.)

von-
Thanks for the update on the new poll. The new poll is a smaller sample size, so a bit bigger margin of error, but not enough to overcome the 10-pt advantage.

What the polls are consistently showing is that Sestak’s polling under 40%. The poll fluctuations are whether Toomey is getting 45% or 48%.

This is tracking with Obama’s approval and the Dem vs GOP polling.

The problem is that Pat and the GOP have the wrong ideas, and have extended the Recession with their obstructionism.

Diano you’re hysterical man. Obama has gotten his major flawed policy initiatives through. The teacher union bailout. The stimulus. The auto bailout. Record high deficit spending. You’re boy Specter, once he switched parties, was doing his damndest to keep up with Sestax. He even flipped on card check again. Give up Diano. You’re a mindless hack.

Texmex-
The policies saved the country from a rapid fall into another Great Depression.
I guess the Republicans have a reason to be against teachers: a knowledgeable population is the antidote to the ignorance and misinformation that is the source of their political power.

Specter has been a supporter of unions and labor (and minimum wage increase) for a long time.
The point of the bill was to make it easier to form Unions (after years of Republican engineered setbacks).

The big bone of contention was how to handle the balloting in a fair manner to prevent coercion from the unions or management.

The GOP and anti-Union groups managed to demonize opposition to a form secret ballot (that the Unions felt would have allowed management to coerce employees). The demonizing made card-check without a secret-ballot non-starter in the Senate until the balloting method was fixed.

Specter supported the unions with a compromise that would have altered the balloting method to one that had a chance of passing.

It’s not a flip-flop, and it never was.