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Poll: Toomey up 9 points
Less than 100 days before voters cast their ballots, Republican Senate candidate Pat Toomey leads Democrat Joe Sestak by nine points among likely voters, according to a new poll.
The Franklin & Marshall College survey released Thursday showed Toomey garnering 40 percent of likely voters, compared to 31 percent for Sestak. About one quarter of voters are still undecided, making for a wide open race, according to the poll.
Toomey’s edge is smaller among all registered voters: only three points, 31 percent to 28 percent. But at the moment, only 37 percent of the Keystone State’s Democrats are projected to vote this November, according to the poll, compared with 45 percent of Republicans.
The survey is generally in line with other public polls, which have shown Toomey, a former congressman, holding high single-digit or low double-digit leads over Sestak, a current two-term congressman.
About a third of voters still don’t know enough about either candidate to form an opinion, and both share similar similar favorability numbers.
The survey of 577 Keystone State adults, including 485 registered voters, was conducted Aug. 16 to 23, and had a margin of error of 5.4 percent when polling likely voters.
Click here to see the full poll.
August 26, 2010 at 10:01 am
Tags: Joe Sestak, Pat Toomey
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Tim
Aug 26th, 2010
Who wins by more, Toomey or Corbett? I’m going to say Toomey surprises everyone and wins by 11, Corbett wins by 9. Both races will not even be close. The Democrats put together one pathetic ticket this year.
David Diano
Aug 26th, 2010
The turnout expectation numbers are inline with past history and current enthusiasm.
I think turn out percentages will be close to 50% Rep and 40% Dem and 20-25% Independent.
There was a 4% gap for the primaries (29% Rep vs 25% Dem turnout), so I think a 10% gap for the General election is on the low side.
The Franklin and Marshall poll matches the Rasmussen poll.
The FiveThirtyEight group predicts an 88% chance that the GOP will take the seat.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Now, look at the predictions for the four Senate races: Illinois, Florida, Washington and California
All those races are in then 40% to 60% range.
That’s where the DSCC should be spreading the $4.4 million instead of wasting it on Sestak. The SMART move is to cut their losses with Sestak and improve their chances in those other races that are winnable.
For all the Sestak Kool-aid drinkers…. I hope you will not attempt to argue that getting Sestak a senate seat is worth losing 2, 3 or 4 others (including Dems with seniority).
It’s time for Sestak to “take one for the team”.
David Diano
Aug 26th, 2010
BTW…..
COMPLETELY SURPRISING RESULT from the poll:
(or F&M made a typo)
Military Vet….Toomey..Sestak
YES………… 40% … 19%
NO…………. 29% … 29%
That means that Toomey is preferred over Sestak 2-1 by Military Vets. Either that’s a typo, or these vets have been talking to people in the Navy who served under Sestak.
Former Dem
Aug 27th, 2010
David Diano
Don’t think it is a typo at all. He is what he is and those that had to serve under him would tell you that if they had to swear to that.
Not that Toomey is any better, actually he is worse, therefore I have to take the NONE of the above column if there was such a thing. Too bad the Green candidate had to with draw as he said he could not afford to go up against Sestak and his thugs of lawyers, what a pity.
David Diano
Aug 27th, 2010
Former Dem-
Well… Joe does like to put politics over principle (then claim the opposite).