Hi Dan, given that you thought MSNBC’s blurb on the Democrats’ internal polling of the senate race was worth a mention, I’m curious as to whether you think such internal polls are as, less, or more reliable than external, professional polling?

Given the huge gap between the numbers (7% between Ras/PPP and Sestak), one has to wonder what’s causing the discrepancy.

Thanks!

The story points out that the Dems propping up Sestak would necessitate abandoning other Dem candidates. Exactly what I feared: that Sestak would drain resources from other races.

Rather than relying upon polling data to handicap the senatorial race (and others, noting their susceptibility to “spin”), it is preferable to analyze the durability of the public positions of the candidates.

Toomey has been consistently hammering Sestak’s support for “Obamanomics” and other increasingly-unpopular positions (such as the “Ground-Zero Mosque”), even as Sestak has been unable to do more than muster smears as rejoinders.

This is consistent with a national trend; as Republicans remain issues-oriented (basing their postures on the specifics of Congressional voting patterns), Democrats are trying to confuse the voters by issuing personal attacks.

This, in turn, is reminiscent of the legal adage: “If you don’t have the case, argue the law; if you don’t have the law, argue the case. And if you have neither, argue ‘ad hominem’!”

The disinterested observer reminisces about the responsible “Lincoln-Douglas” debates between Toomey and Sestak of 2009, ideological clashes that were fun to observe.

Anyone that really believes that Sestak is only down 2 points is out of their mind. I have nothing against the man personally, but as a candidate he’s a bum. He has no name recognition, he is a boring and uninspiring candidate, he’s slow to respond to Toomey’s attacks, and his base is not nearly as fired up as Toomey’s. It’s shocking that Sestak is down so much, considering that Toomey hasn’t mentioned anything about his abortion and gun rights views. Yeah, when people in western pa hear about his F grade from the NRA and his support of partial birth abortion, you think they’ll even consider voting for him? Please.

Jim sounds like the same BS I heard during the primary. Sestak by 8. Toomey has gone as far up in the polls as he is likely to, 47% isn’t enough. Sestak isn’t going to respond to the lies in Toomey’s ads, he won’t allow Toomey to set the tone for this election. I expect some devestating ads pointing out Toomeys service to the wealthy at the expense of the middle class over the past decade or so.

Bill-
No question about Toomey’s lies and bad policies. However, Jim makes a good point on the social issues. Western Dems are very much “republican” on the social issues. God, guns and gays.

Joe’s going to need massive turnout in Philly to overcome big losses in the West. After the way Sestak dissed and dismissed the Philly ward machine in the primary, I don’t see a lot of enthusiasm. Joe’s not going to kiss Brady’s ring (or ass).

Western Pa. dems aren’t repub enough to vote for Toomey David, Sestak by 8+

Bill-
You are really living in a fantasy.
Look at the breakdown of the 2008 election:
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/states/pennsylvania.html?scp=7&sq=Pa&st=cse

Look at all the counties that voted for McCain. If Sestak wins, it’s only going to be in isolated pockets like Philly suburbs trying to carry the rest of the state. Onorato is a pro-gun NRA type with a pro-lifer tilt, so he won’t suffer as much as Sestak on those issues out West.

With Obama’s approval low in PA (especially in the West with the 3-G’s crowd), and the Dems not energized to vote, we are looking at a repeat of the 2009 statewide elections.

Toomey’s going to play on fear and uncertainty, and social issues. The NRA and pro-lifers aren’t going to sit on the sidelines. The anti-Philly sentiment in the West isn’t going to help Sestak either.

The Dems are going to wind up pissing away money down this black hole of a money pit.

Dave I’ll file this with your astute analysis of the Primary in May, right down the toilet. Are you going for the all time record of being wrong. Sestak is doing just fine in Pittsburgh, Johnstown, even Erie, the “T” will always vote repub, just a fact of life in Pennsabama.

Sestak did well in Pittsburgh with primary voters, but that says nothing about how he’ll fare in a GENERAL election, when the Republican and moderate votes count too. Without name recognition and ca$h, Sestak is at an extreme tactical disadvantage.

I suspect the final figure may be a little closer than 9%, but make no mistake, Sestak will lose. This isn’t another PA-7th race where Sestak can work like a dog and pull it off. Pennsylvania is a big state, gas is expensive, and he’s an incumbent in a fiercely anti-incumbent year.

Nationally, the DSCC should revise its strategy and focus its resources on other competitive senate races AND on keeping the House. There are plenty of vital House races in PA that are infinitely more deserving of resources than this senate contest.

Gee Matt, seems like everyone I talk to on the phones knows who Joe Sestak is, is Toomey as well known? Toomey’s not exactly a household name. Arlen had a big sack of cash too, didn’t help him any did it. As for incumbents, Joe’s not the incumbent Senator and ran from outside his party, seems to me that the only incumbents that have been getting knocked off regularly have (R) behind their name, those tea party conservtative republicans don’t like republican incumbents, but there aren’t enough of them to win an open election.
You can only hope the DSCC would not help this campaign. Sestak by 8+ bye,bye Toomey back to the club for greed.

BTW how does Toomey hope to build any name recognition if he doesn’t have any events open to the general public, all he does are closed door invitation only events. like his Vets for Toomey event in Philly, I think they held it in a closet in the Armory on 23 rd St. toomey and two vets.

The vets for Toomey event was ‘vetenarians for Toomey.” Vets love dogs and Toomey’s campaign is barking like a poodle.

Toomey is a dog of a candidate! What other candidate could afford to waste all the money he has on ineffectual ads, he’s run his ads daily since the primary and hasn’t moved his numbers on iota. Mired at 47% and nowhere to go but down.

Matt-
Excellent points. The money would be better spent on races where we had a chance and it could make a difference.

Bill-
Toomey doesn’t need to be that well known (though he will be with all his campaign cash). Toomey is running against TARP, stimulus bill, health care reform, expiration of Bush tax cuts, cap and trade, etc. All policies that Joe has (correctly) supported. However, Toomey and his ilk are determine to convince the voters that the correct policies where wrong and that black-is-white. They seem to be doing a pretty good job of it. They’ve got a quarter of the country convinced Obama is a Muslim instead of a Christian.
Toomey’s got plenty of cash to spread this ignorance. Toomey’s lack of name recognition also works to his advantage because most voters will have NO IDEA that he’s more conservative than Rick Santorum.
Joe can rattle off all the numbers he wants about Pat’s voting record, but that will NOT sink in same kind of conservative stigma that Santorum has.

Toomey’s ads are designed to keep introduce him as a family man, and to tie Sestak to Obama, Reid, and Pelosi on the reasonable theory that Sestak’s poll numbers will track with theirs. The RNC works the anti-Obama/Reid/Pelosi angle and Toomey ties Joe to them and all the problems voters are concerned about.

The election is a referendum on Obama and the Dems. Sestak’s is merely a proxy and empty suit. Sestak’s fate will turn on voters perception of the economy and the right-wrong direction of the country.

Mired at 47%? Sestak’s “mired” at 40%. Joe managed to tap into a lot of misplaced anxiety and residual hatred over Specter, but that isn’t going to work with Toomey. You seem very unconcerned that Joe hasn’t moved his own numbers “one iota” either. Toomey doesn’t have to go “anywhere”. He can stay right where he is (in the lead).

Based upon past elections, we can expect about 50% Dem turnout and 60% GOP turnout this November. And about 250,000 Independent voters. The Dems that are dissatisfied with Obama are probably going to vote for Toomey or undervote the race. The Independents have been leaning away from the Dems lately and Joe damaged his chances at capturing the middle with his “real Democrat” campaign in the Primary.

Dave Toomey has been on the air with his ads since right after the primary, his numbers have’t changed, Joe hasn’t run an ad yet, you can be sure they will devestate Toomey’s platform of continuing the failed bush tax cuts. The Dems who are dissatisfied with Obama sure won’t vote for Toomey most of them think he hasn’t gone far enough, doubtful they will vote for someone Santorum labeled too conservative for Pa.

You do a remarkably poor job of judging the electorate, you should give it up and try something your good at Dave.

Bill-
“right after the primary” Sestak was +4 over Toomey. That’s flipped about 10-13 points to Toomey in the +6 to +9 range.

Toomey’s lead appears to not only have moved a bit from +6, but seems to be solidifying. It’s not like it’s 37 to 30, with plenty of undecideds. At 47 to 40, Sestak’s got to win over the undecideds by a 10 to 3 ratio. That’s quite an uphill climb in this political climate and with fewer financial resources and an inability to make good use of the White House and current Governor.

Why are Joe’s poll numbers not moving up with all the hard work, phone calls, and public appearances you keep touting?

There are TWO kinds of Dems satisfied with Obama: those who want him to go farther and those with buyer’s remorse and doubts about the direction of the country. Joe is never going to be able to convince enough people that Toomey is further to the Right than Santorum in the next 10 weeks. Sestak was able to demonize Specter by tapping into ingrained perceptions and cherry-picked moments from a 30 year career. There aren’t such widespread perceptions of Toomey.

Don’t forget, several hundred thousand Republicans switched to Dem in 2008. That doesn’t make them life-long, liberal Dems who can be counted upon to vote for Dem candidates. Many are probably split-ticket voters.
Obama’s approval numbers in PA are below 50%.

Sestak handed this seat to the Republicans the minute he took Specter off the playing field and dissed the Democratic infrastructure.

It’s a lost cause and it’s going to drag down the rest of the ticket. I’m just hoping that Lentz wins as a silver lining.

Bill-
My mistake was giving the Western Dems credit for having the same intelligence as the SE PA voters who voted FOR Specter over Sestak.

Plenty of the Western Dems that voted for Sestak or Specter are going to turn around and vote for Toomey on the guns and social issues.

Dave’s comment, “Joe managed to tap into a lot of misplaced anxiety and residual hatred over Specter, but that isn’t going to work with Toomey,” is right on. The primary was a referendum on Specter, not an endorsement of Sestak, which I experienced firsthand when I canvassed for Specter and OFA. People knew nothing about Joe Sestak, but they knew they didn’t like Arlen Specter. That, combined with the rain, killed him.

The fact that Toomey is out-raising Sestak when the Democrats NATIONALLY are out-raising the Republicans speaks volumes about how PA voters are receiving these two candidates. Remember Tip: “All politics are local.”

Some major, objective measurement of momentum needs to shift towards Sestak’s favor for him to become competitive in this race. So far, everything (money, polls, ads, and trends) seems to be falling in line for Toomey.

And bill healy, if you respond, please spare us the nasty sarcasm and talk like an adult. Thanks.

So this internal poll, does that mean they are polling those within the democratic party? Great then, because if Toomey is ahead of Sestak by 2 points among democrats, he’s a shoe-in. Internal Poll, what a crock.