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GOP pollsters see challengers leading in four Pa. races

Republican pollsters looking at four competitive House districts in Pennsylvania say the GOP challengers in those races are holding leads over Democratic incumbents—and sometimes big leads that come in spite of low name recognition for the Republicans.

Whit Ayres’ polling firm conducted the surveys on behalf of American Action Forum—part of the conservative group American Action Network led by former Senator Norm Coleman, among others. The results were first reported by The National Review. But full survey cross-tabs and questions were not immediately available, making it impossible to independently assess the merits of the polls—and some of the results are sure to raise skeptical eyebrows from political watchers.

The surveys, conducted in late July and early August, included 400 voters each from the 3rd, 10th, 11th and 12th Congressional Districts.

In the 3rd, Republican Mike Kelly leads incumbent Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper big, according to the poll, 52 percent to 38 percent. In the 10th, Republican Tom Marino tops incumbent Chris Carney 52 percent to 37 percent. In both cases, the incumbents have wide name recognition and huge cash advantages over their GOP challengers, who are still very much unknown.

In the 11th District, Republican Lou Barletta leads Paul Kanjorski 52 percent to 41 percent. And in the 12th, Republican Tim Burns leads Democrat Mark Critz in a rematch of their May special election contest, 44 percent to 40 percent.

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August 17, 2010 at 8:15 am

--pa2010.com Staff

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  1. 1994 Again

    Aug 17th, 2010

    This is one more sign that 2010 will be a wave election for the GOP.

    Here’s another: http://hotair.com/archives/2010/08/16/total-destruction-gop-out-to-biggest-generic-ballot-leads-in-history-in-both-gallup-and-rasmussen/

  2. David Diano

    Aug 17th, 2010

    I’m not familiar with Whit Ayres or his polling firm (though they DO appear to be a Republican polling firm).

    Carney’s so conservative, I doubt we’ll notice much difference with a Republican in the seat, but I still think it’s too early to count Carney out.

  3. Grand Dragon Jim Gerlach

    Aug 17th, 2010

    yea this is bullshit. Tom Marino has like $500 cash on hand. No way does he beat Carney and NO WAY is his support that high. Is there any data to go along with this? If you’re going post results of polls that are pretty bogus please provide the data and cross tabs.

  4. Not so fast

    Aug 17th, 2010

    If these polls are not accurate as some have suggested, then why don’t the democrat canidates release results of their polls. It is well documented that the incumbents enjoy a very comfortable cash advantage, so it would reason that they have conducted polls thus far. It only stands to reason that the results are not positive. This is going to be an interesting election cycle in that the incumbents can outspend their opponents 2 to 1 and still lose.

  5. District 3

    Aug 19th, 2010

    If Democrats don’t like the outcome of the polling numbers, why don’t they conduct their own and release the results?

  6. danam

    Aug 19th, 2010

    i voted for Dahlkemper in 2008. but will not vote for her EVER again b/c of her yes vote on healthcare.

  7. ccdemuth

    Aug 26th, 2010

    Majority Maker: CT-04

    The fourth district of Connecticut is in play in 2010. The district was the last New England district to have a Republican representative. In 2008, Democrat Jim Himes was able to squeak by incumbent Republican Chris Shays in large part due to a surge in newly registered Democrat voters in Bridgeport who turned out to support Barack Obama. If historical voting patterns return in 2010, then Himes will be in trouble.

    Himes is a vulnerable incumbent who has not earned re-election. The Cook Political Report lists incumbents by risk factors from zero to five. According to Cook, “even Democrats with just three risk factors could find themselves in serious political risk in 2010”. Himes has five risk factors – he supported the unpopular cap and trade bill, he supported Obamacare, his district leans Democrat only slightly, his opponent has over $200 k in cash, and he received under 55% in his last election (in fact, only 51%).

    Debicella is a worthy candidate who could benefit from a strong year for Republican challengers. If 2010 is a normal election year, Himes could be in trouble. If 2010 is a good year for Republicans, then Dan Debicella could be a new majority maker. That being said, Himes sits on powerful committees and he is well funded by the companies that he oversees. Himes has spread around a lot of taxpayer money and will be able to raise a lot of money in return. Anyone interested in an effective way to level the playing field can do so here: https://debicella.blue-swarm.com/donate/ . Dan is a reformer in the mold of Paul Ryan. He is an effective advocate for the values of free enterprise and individual liberty who would well serve Fairfield County in Washington.

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