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A guy from Butler in an Erie battleground

In seeking to represent the 3rd Congressional District, Republican Mike Kelly has a host of political advantages. The anti-incumbent, anti-Democratic environment may be especially harsh in the conservative-leaning northwest Pennsylvania district. Incumbent Kathy Dahlkemper is, at least on paper, one of the most vulnerable Democrats in Congress. And her role in shaping abortion compromises in the new health care law has made the district a battleground for outside advocacy groups.

But there’s one, much more basic disadvantage that Kelly faces: geography.

A longtime car dealer from Butler, the southern end of the district, Kelly is courting a constituency that is overwhelmingly centered and oriented to his north in the Erie media market—Dahlkemper’s home base. Whereas Butler is a suburb of Pittsburgh, as much as two thirds of the district’s population resides in the Erie media market. Both politicians to represent the district in its current iteration hailed from Erie. Over the last century, as the area’s representation boundaries have been drawn and redrawn, only one person has been sent to Washington from outside the Erie region.

“The fact that 50 percent of the district voters live in Erie County is a huge disadvantage for any non-Erie candidate,” Dahlkemper campaign manager Tina Mengine said. “That is just geographic reality.”

Recognizing this, Kelly’s campaign has worked hard to at least neutralize this disadvantage. Having poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into his own campaign so far, he advertised heavily in the cheap Erie market on his way to a competitive primary win. And his campaign has tried to bring as much of the local GOP organization under its umbrella, with strategic hires and filed offices. Kelly campaign spokesman Brad Moore said issues, not geography, matter the most.

“The issues are the same up and down the district,” Moore said. “The concerns and frustrations are the same across all seven counties. To count Mike out simply because he is not from Erie is ridiculous, preposterous.”

But the cultural disconnect between Butler and Erie is real, political watchers say. And while Kelly was already known thanks to a slew of car advertisements run in Butler over the years, those spots were never beamed into Erie households.

“He hasn’t run many advertisements here, other than the early buys he made during the primary,” Erie County Democratic Party chair Bill Cole said. “Right now his name has largely dropped off the radar.”

A recent GOP poll memo claimed that Kelly enjoys “soft name awareness” among a third of voters in the district, results that raised more than a healthy dose of skepticism. Another outside poll by a conservative group found Kelly leading the race, but with just 37 percent of voters knowing enough about him to form an opinion. Observers remain skeptical of Kelly’s Erie appeal.

“I don’t even think [former Republican Congressman] Phil English had 70 percent name recognition after 14 years in office,” said Daniel Shea, an Allegheny College political scientist who has been closely watching the race. “To say Mike Kelly is that well known is a wild claim.”

But Shea said Erie’s cheap media market could remain a wild card. Dahlkemper has enjoyed a significant fundraising advantage, while Kelly has shown no sign that he’ll stop writing checks from his own bank account.

“The whole idea of a ‘local’ candidate is changing,” Shea said. “Erie is shrinking while the suburbs are growing, and with cable television and social networking Web sites like Facebook, Kelly can put himself in Erie living rooms throughout the week. That’s if he can find the money.”

David Kozak, a political scientist at Gannon University in Erie, pointed to the skewed electorate that often comes out to vote during midterm elections.

“We can’t count out the non-Erie voters, especially during a midterm election that is not necessarily expected to draw from all demographics equally,” Kozak said. “This is a sprawling district, and a trying time for incumbents. The race is going to be pretty darn tight.”

August 20, 2010 at 8:30 am

--John Manganaro

Tags: Kathy Dahlkemper, Mike Kelly, PA-3

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