I wasn’t polled, but I’m in that 6% that would prefer another candidate.

Here’s the money quote from the Rasmussen survey:

“Support for Sestak has remained in the 36% to 40% range in matchups with Toomey back to February, except for a brief surge after his mid-May victory over incumbent Arlen Specter in the state’s Democratic Senate Primary. During that same time frame, Toomey has received 42% to 47% of the vote.”

Sestak is a horrible candidate.

Toomey’s support has been in that same 42% to 47% since prior to the primary’s it doesn’t look like Toomeys smear campaign is bringing any new votes to him. How long has he been wasting his campaign funds to scare voters with smears instead of offering ideas he offers he’s a liberal. Pathetic Pat couldn’t even beat Spector in the Republican Primary of 04.

Actually here’s the money quote from Rasmussen Reports:

“The new survey finds Sestak a point closer to Toomey than he was two weeks ago. While that’s not a significant change, it’s enough to move Pennsylvania from Leans Republican to Toss-Up status in the Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power rankings.”

Even Rasmussen, a conservative polling operation, sees the writing on the wall and has moved this race to “toss-up”, consistent with Quinnipiac’s and Public Polling Institute’s polling on the race that shows its a dead-heat.

Toomey’s been up on air for over a month with TV ads, and it doesn’t appear to have made a difference.

Given the dynamics of this being a “Republican” election cycle, Toomey’s been stuck at a ceiling of 42-45% of the vote for almost a year.

Toomey’s polling is just like Specter’s polling was against Sestak — never able to close the deal, and never able to get over the 50% threshold.

With the electorate not yet engaged, you have to wonder why Toomey is spending his money now – espcially if the numbers aren’t moving in his direction.

Toomey is not only the best candidate in this race, he is the best candidate in the country. He is the only person I have seen effectively articulate the insanity of Washington and at the same time has the credibility to back it up.

There are 1.2 million more Democrats in PA than Republicans. Obama won the state by 10%. Sestak should be leading Toomey by double digits. Instead he’s stuck at 40%.

The Toomey campaign is a fundraising Juggernaut that will dominate TVs this fall. Their small anti-Sestak ad buy has helped cap the Democrat at 40% over the summer. They’ll crush Sestak this fall once they flood the airwaves, taking advantage of superior fundraising and a good political environment for Republicans.

One of two things are going to happen this fall.

1) Rassmussen was right, and there will be a lot of new Republican legislators.

2) Rassmussen was wrong, and will have a lot of egg on their face.

I am looking forward to seeing which it is.

Bill-
You need to get your facts straight.

“Since the primary..”
The May 19th Rasmussen poll had Sestak +4 over Toomey. That was AFTER the primary.

Two weeks later, there was an 11 point shift to Toomey +7. A lead that Toomey has consistently maintained for roughly two months. Since the June 2nd Rasmussen poll, Sestak hasn’t broken 40% in that poll.

I don’t see Sestak’s campaign bringing any new votes to him either. Basically, there’s been no movement in the polls for two months, with three months left to go and Toomey having a substantial cash advantage.

Simon-
I think they just have a set rule on Leans vs Toss-up based on the poll numbers. If it fluctuates back to 7%, I think they’ll go back to Leans.

1994-
The irony here is that Sestak is a horrible candidate who’s generally in support of the correct policies. Toomey is a very personable candidate who’s completely wrong on policy, even advocating the policies that ruined the economy. Sh*t floats.

Toomey will win so get over it David Diano

All we continue to hear about is the process of campaigning and the spin. Welcome to America. Neither Sestak nor Toomey is discussing nor will they be able to accomplish anything other than marginal changes in American domestic or foreign policy absent major structural changes in how Congress does its business and how Congress interacts with corporate campaign contributors. In short, the American system of governance is too large and too complex and there is no real leadership in sight.

Analysis by FiveThirtyEight.com
estimates a 62% chance of Toomey beating Sestak.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/07/senate-forecast-718-republican-outlook.html

Prediction: As we approach election day, Ras will have races like these as two to five point GOP advatage. That way, if Sestak wins, they won’t look TOO absurd. Of course, if other pollsters show Sestak pulling ahead, Ras will follow.

Bottom line: Any poll that has a candidate at 39 percent and doesn’t tell you who the undecideds are, is utterly worthless.

Nic-

I don;t want Toomey articulating why he is insane. I want a candidate who will look out for the best interests of the Commonwealth and the country. Toomey isn’t that guy. He was a part of the insanity of the GOP years of mismanagement and building the country up for a recession. He offers no credible ideas on the economy, especially job creation. He offers up nothing but the promise of opposing the President when we need ideas. Toomey is definitely the opposite of the “best candidate in the country”.

http://WWW.OBMACRIMES.COM go there now and find out how badly Obama has Snokered The USA Public

now lets close down DRPA completely

Despite Nate’s current call, 99% chance that Quinnipiac’s numbers are much closer to reality this far from Election Day.

DailyKos has done numerous reviews of Ras’s early numbers skewing GOP and as Election Day approaches they move towards the average of everyone else’s numbers. Near 0% chance that won’t happen here.

Regardless of anyone’s personal opinion, Sestak has twice proven himself to be a formidable candidate, when he became Congressman for the 7th CD and when he beat Specter in the Senate primary. I have every confidence that he will make that three times come November.

Meanwhile, Toomey is a right-wing ideolog and the PA electorate has made it pretty clear that isn’t what they are interested in.