Well, that post-election bump for Sestak disappeared.

But, Joe still has his $4 million deficit in campaign funds. And, I’m sure that when that’s pointed out, Joe will make some cliche mention how he prefers running from behind and is not worried, blah, blah, blah”

Doesn’t Pennsylvania have 1.2 million more Democrats than Republicans? Shouldn’t Sestak and Onorato be leading Toomey and Corbett by double digits four months before the election? Tough year for Dems.

Oh your so right David, I well remember how badly he lost to Arlen Specter, because he was so woefully underfunded, opps that’s wrong he won that race even though Arlen had a 4 Million $ edge in funding. Keep up the good work Dave.LoL

18% undecided is a large number, and this is not the same pool of undecideds that sent Sestak to victory last May. Those undecideds went for Sestak because they couldn’t stomach Arlen Specter, not because they loved the Admiral.

Infinitely more than last time, money will be needed to woo this 18%, and Sestak clearly doesn’t have the advantage there. But, it’s still June, and anything can happen.

Bill-
I do remember that Sestak started with $4 million in donations he obtained under the fale pretext of needing for the 7th CD.
How has that hurt our strength in the 7th? Bryan is a great candidate, but he’s got a big financial hill to climb since money earmarked for the 7th got blown on the Senate race.
the primary was rejection of Specter. It wasn’t a coronation.

I am a registered Democrat and I am not sure I can vote for Sestak. After his falsehoods about job offers and the fact he won not because people liked him, but because he was able to claim Specter wasn’t are real Democrat, has me wavering. He will have to prove he is really ready for prime time and not put his foot in his mouth or take cheap shots at our president. And, I will have to see just how liberal he really is. I believe in compromise and I have a feeling Mr. Sestak likes things his way or no way.

Full poll results:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PA_622.pdf

Margaret, it looks like you have plenty of company. 50% of the poll respondents identified as Democrats and 42% as Republicans, yet Toomey and Sestak are split at 41%. That would seem to indicate that Democrats, for some reason, aren’t as sure about Sestak as the Republicans are about Toomey.

Other interesting indicators are that 51% of the respondents oppose the healthcare plan, 50% disapprove of Obama’s job performance, and regarding the two candidates, their favorability/unfavorability ratings are just about the same.

What does this mean? I’m guessing that Toomey will stick to his anti-big government message, while Sestak will try to move towards the right. Whether he can do that successfully and whether it’ll jeopardize his standing with the left, whom he he’s just cozied up to, is another matter.

Thoughts?

I love it that every time a dog farts you guys analyze how it affects Joe Sestak’s chance at the polls. Instead of bellyaching about Joe, you could try doing stuff to help him win. And Dave, so far for elections this year, your predictions have been a little off, maybe you ought to quit while you are ahead.

David D

Right you are on both posts. thanks for the truth as it is very rare today that you hear the truth

Margaret, you are right, Sestak does like things his way and Toomey is a real space cowboy. Seems that the voters of PA don’t have a choice.
I am voting for the Green candidate although he has no chance of winning as I hate both the Republican and the Democrat.

If you haven’t been paying much attention to the Pennsylvania Senate race it might surprise you to learn that since the May 18 Democratic primary, when Rep. Joe Sestak defeated incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter, Sestak has been polling very well against the Republican nominee, former Rep. Pat Toomey (R). That’s in pretty sharp contrast with how well Sestak polled against Toomey before the primary, in a hypothetical matchup. The latest poll out today has the race dead even. You can see the tightening of the race in this chart of the TPM Poll Average of the race:

Matt from UD-
Sestak was trailing in all the polls until the last few weeks. I correctly predicted that Sestak would win Delco by around 70% – 30%, that Montco would be close to a tie and that Sestak would lose Philly. What I completely missed was how the differently the Dems outside of SE PA would vote and screw it up. In SE PA, where both candidates were well known, Specter won. In the rest of the state, Sestak was relatively unknown, and the vote was a rejection of Specter.
It will be interesting to see how Sestak matches up against Toomey regionally (with the pro-gun, pro-life Dems in the western part of the state).
As for a farting dog, it would smell less than Sestak’s jobgate story.

Lana-
The Green party does have the better platform on the issues.

Bill-
Much of that polling has to do with name recognition and generic GOP vs Dem match-up. The disapproval numbers for Obama and health care are dangerous for Sestak and any other Dem running this year.
The election is still over 5 months away. These early polls on the candidates mean less than the polling on the issues.

Look at Q7 in data where poll respondents self-identify preferring McCain over Obama by 48-47 (and remember that post election polling usually over identifies the winner – even when winner shows subsequent approval rating drop – because people like to say “I voted for the winner”). Remember that PA went 54-44 for Obama. Also look at Q1, Obama’s approval in this survey is 43, the real number is 48 (I know that defies your instinct but check it). If Sestak/Toomey are DH with this sample, then Sestak is really plus 5 or more.

in the know – that logic doesn’t really hold. You can’t extrapolate a potential difference of 5% in the President’s job approval, if it exists, to the senate race.

What the numbers do indicate is that PA voters are becoming less enthusiastic about Obama, and are skeptical about national healthcare. That posture most likely hurts Sestak and helps Toomey, and it will be interesting to see if the Sestak camp changes its slant in response.

This same pollster just put Corbett 10 points over Onorato in the governor’s race.

Does that mean that a lot of Sestak voters are going to go for Corbett?

No I think that the up and down ballot variances with coalesces as the party ticket becomes unified in messages especially as Onorato goes up to on message.
Lets get real the ticket driver will be the Governor’s race. The public is so over the stack carping.
I do think that, however, that the influences of the hard right and the tea bag extremes will be channeled more through Toomey than Corbett as Corbett is a very old school traditional pol. I doubt he will do all the creepy Rand Paul/Michelle Bachman /Glen Beck stuff Toomey is married to. If Toomey is outed on these wierdo themes he could and will drag the R ticket down.

Anidiot – why do think the “ticket driver” will be the governor’s race?

Matt supposes that Little Joe Sestak will move to the right. How much farther can he move since he has towed the line in Afghanistan. The Admiral brags that he commanded a Navy task force off of Afghanistan…when was that? Eight years ago? IF TOOMEY WANTS TO WIN, HE WILL WRAP AFGHANISTAN AROUND SESTAK’S POLITICAL NECK. THE AFGHAN WAR IS NOW THE LONGEST IN AMERICAN HISTORY, SURPASSING VIETNAM. JOE WANT TO HIDE THIS FACT. HAMMER IT HOME AGAIN, AND AGAIN, AND AGAIN VERSUS THE SELF-PROCLAIMED “PROGRESSIVE PATRIOT.” HA!

PS Get ready for an October Surprise.