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Murphy’s missing million
A month before Election Day in 2008, Congressman Patrick Murphy (D-8) was comfortably sitting on more than $2.2 million in campaign cash. His path to a second term had eased considerably after an economic collapse shifted the focus of his race against Republican Tom Manion from the Iraq War to pocketbook issues. But Murphy wasn’t taking any chances, and he spent more than $1 million on TV in the closing days of the race—including an ad buy during the World Series.
That’s money he might be wishing was still in the bank today.
Murphy beat Manion by 15 points, a margin big enough to scare off formidable challengers for months. But now he faces Mike Fitzpatrick, the same man he bounced out of office in 2006 and a candidate far more potent than Manion. And the more than $2 million he dropped in the last four weeks of the race is $2 million he doesn’t have to hold off Fitzpatrick.
“I’m sure that the Murphy campaign would love to have carried over some of that money spent during the ’08 campaign for the battle that they will be in this fall,” said Muhlenberg College pollster and political scientist Chris Borick.
By all accounts, Murphy, who enjoys a national fundraising base, friends in high places and the adoration of Democratic fundraisers, will have all the money he needs this fall. As of late April, a war chest that had been depleted to less than a quarter-million dollars was back up to $1.3 million, and party insiders expect Murphy to post solid numbers when quarterly reports are filed in July (Fitzpatrick had about $409,000 on hand as of late April, but it remains to be seen how much he spent in the closing days before the May primary).
Nevertheless, his late-campaign spending in 2008 underscores the double-edged sword candidates face when trying to run up the margins against opponents—the risk of spent money weighed against the reward of giving future challengers pause.
While campaigns rarely think “one election ahead,” Franklin & Marshall College pollster G. Terry Madonna said, Murphy may have “wanted to win big to ensure his standing nationally, and perhaps to prevent any strong opposition in 2010.”
And, of course, there’s always the possibility that Murphy felt he was still vulnerable that November.
“Congressional campaigns are often risk averse,” Borick said, “and would rather put up some ‘insurance’ money to make sure that nothing is left to chance on Election Day.
Either way, in this case the political climate shifted significantly in the 14 months following Murphy’s reelection win, creating an opening for a candidate like Fitzpatrick, who has a formidable fundraising base of his own.
In a a recent statement to pa2010.com, Murphy said “we ran a strong campaign and got incredible support from Independents and moderate Republicans. By focusing on bringing good jobs to our community and keeping them here, I think I can earn their support again.”
Bucks County Democratic Party chairman John Cordisco called Murphy’s late spending spree a “non-issue.”
“It’s very clear that he takes nothing for granted,” Cordisco said.
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June 29, 2010 at 9:30 am
Tags: Mike Fitzpatrick, PA-8, Patrick Murphy
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TB
Jun 29th, 2010
The site’s Congressional reporting has been flooded with Murphy stories the past few days. I like it.
Fred A
Jun 29th, 2010
Unfortunately, like it or not, American elections always require money. The fact that Mr. Murphy has to be replaced due to a completely unacceptable legislative voting record and that Mr. Fitzpatrick is ideally matched to the challenges ahead is supplanted by a complete article on “money spent” Truth is, Mr. Murphy is going to need a lot more than just money come November. He simply needs to go. And, unlike the last Congressional election in District 8, this time he has an opponent that not only can raise funds, but, more importantly, can do the job.
Anon
Jun 29th, 2010
Don’t forget that at the end of 08, Murphy was seriously considering a Senate run against Specter (who was still a Republican). Although Murphy decided not to run for Senate, at the time, this big spend in the Philly market made a lot of sense.
Bucks Voter
Jun 29th, 2010
The Bucks GOP and FitzFlop are both pathetic. I’m not voting for the lesser of two evils anymore – which means I will not waste my time or money helping FitzFlop. Hopefully, the GOP will have a better candidate against Murphy in 2012.
Fred A
Jun 29th, 2010
Happy to inform Mr. Bucks Voter that there won’t be a Murphy in 2012.
G Miller
Jun 29th, 2010
Interesting analysis, but you cann’t win an election on just TV. Look where Murphys money is comming from. Note the comment above about Murphy running for Senate. Murphy is not a citizens representative. He moved into Bucks to start a Public Service career, not to serve the public. Get rid of him now before, he buys another election. Obamas coat tails are not there. He is just another example of self serving representation and how it results in bad government. Doing and voting to advance himself. Think people. This is about getting a better “not perfect” representative for the 8th district.
Dem Guy
Jun 29th, 2010
G Miller –
Hate to break it to you, but part of Philadelphia is in the 8th district — the part Murphy grew up in. So saying he’s a carpet bagger is wrong. Also, it’s not uncommon for successful kids of NE Philly to move to Lower Bucks County.
Plus, Murphy won the 8th by 15 pts. Obama won by about 9. Stop the ‘Obama coattails’ argument. It just makes you look like a GOP talking point machine. (You aren’t, right?)
anonymous
Jun 29th, 2010
Other than criticizing Murphy does Fitzpatrick ever offer any solutions to todays challenges. You talk about self serving politicians, Fitzpatrick threw all Republicans in Bucks County under the bus when he paraded out the old term limit ploy. Murphy’s been in office 4 years, Fitzpatricks’s cronies have been there for 20 or more years. The only reason Fitzpatrick is running is because he just wants a job, nothing to do with serving the people
pa voter
Jun 29th, 2010
Fitzpatrick is a good guy- he works hard for the people- not for Pelosi- Murphy a Blue Dog? Yup- he’s a dog allright- with fleas!
Lil
Jun 30th, 2010
I agree with PA Voter and Fred A. Yes, Fitz is a good man who works hard for people. He listens to people and is accessible to people. Unike Mr. Murphy who comes out in the sunlight for an unproductive Job Fair at OVM on June 26…several people from around Bucks County came to the Job Fair — in fact one man called the Bristol office on the Thursday before and when he asked what businesses were going to be there….the office staff replied, “we don’t know yet”. Talk about poor planning, Mr. Murphy. Another man came from Upper Bucks, has been out of work for 2.5 years, came to OVM after deciding if the Job Fair was a good use of his gas….He went, much to his dismay. He called a few of the companies on the Monday following….one company said they had Inside Sales jobs….He called to find out it was 5 hr. part-time telemarking job. So, Mr. Murphy were are these 3,000 jobs you helped create? The flyers you recently said you sent to all consituents in Bucks County, your area in NE and your sliver in Montco….not everyone received. Did you send to a targeted market of YOUR VOTERS?
Mr. Fitzpatrick will give his constituents a Congressman we can be proud to say he is from Bucks County because he will never forget where his roots are.
Dem Guy
Jun 30th, 2010
Lil –
Take a breath, and find the “Enter” button. I think you will find it helps you get your point across.
anonymous
Jul 1st, 2010
Compare the record of Fitzpatrick’s 2 years and what Murphy has done for the 8th District. I really don’t understand so much disregard for Murphy’s voting record. When he passes these bills it benefits all of the people of the 8th District. What bills did Fitzpatrick vote on to benefit the 8th district citizens when he was in office. I think Fitzpatrick is a nice guy also, I just think he was a lousy congressman and would betray the people of the 8th district if he were elected.
chris
Jul 2nd, 2010
Go Navy!
Someone should do a case study on Sestak’s and Murphy’s 2008 Congressional races.
Admiral Sestak and Captain Murphy both raised approximately $4 million dollars that cycle.
Sestak’s 7th Congressional District was 38% registered Democrats, and registered Republicans out-numbers Democrats by 50,000.
Murphy’s 8th Congressional District was 45% registered Democrat, and there were 25,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans.
Sestak, in a “Republican District”, spent $1 million on his field (no TV ads) and wins by 20 points over his GOP opponent. Sestak ends the cycle with $3 million in the bank – a “war chest” to deter future opponents.
Murphy, in a “Democratic District”, spends $ 4 million (mostly on TV ads) and wins by 15 points over his GOP opponent. Murphy ends the cycle in debt – no “war chest” to deter Fitzpatrick from getting into the race.
No better example of why Navy guys are better tacticians than Army guys!
Go Navy, Beat Army!
anonymous
Jul 2nd, 2010
Murphy and Sestak won in 2008 because the voters (not the money)decided who the better candidates were. The same cycle will happen in 2010. The Republican candidates just keep crying and offer no solutions to the problems.