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In cheaper media market, war chest could give Dahlkemper early edge

On paper, Kathy Dahlkemper may be the most vulnerable House Democrat in the state, a freshman hailing from a conservative area who cast difficult votes in favor of health care reform legislation. But as she prepares for a challenge from Republican nominee Mike Kelly, Dahlkemper has at least two advantages: lots of campaign cash, and the fact that it doesn’t cost too much to deploy that money on TV in the 3rd Congressional District.

The vast northwest Pennsylvania district encompasses three media markets, and together, TV advertising across the board is hardly inexpensive. But Erie is the district’s population center, and it’s also one of the cheapest media markets in the state, one where campaigns can blanket the airwaves for about $70,000 per week. Advertising in the Pittsburgh media market costs about double that, while advertising in Youngstown costs a bit less than Pittsburgh.

Dahlkemper has raised $1.2 million this cycle, and had about $800,000 in the bank at the end of the April, shortly before she cruised through an easy primary. Kelly loaned his campaign more than $300,000 but spent much of it to win a contested primary. He told pa2010.com this week that he’s willing to put more cash on the table. Both of the party House campaign committees are expected to play heavily in the district, which is currently No. 2 on the pa2010.com Congressional Power Rankings.

A Dahlkemper campaign spokesman said the financial edge would not mean a preemptive slew of ads early in the election cycle.

“The money advantage will obviously be huge if we can keep it, but we’re still polling right now to figure out our next move with advertising,” spokesman Bryan Oberle said.

Daniel Shea, the director of the Center for Political Participation at Allegheny College in Meadville and a close observer of the race, said Dahlkemper has an opportunity to define Kelly early if she chooses to do so.

“A million dollars is dangerous when $70,000 can buy you a week of relatively heavy advertising,” Shea said. “If Dahlkemper acts quickly, she can define Kelly in Erie before he can define himself.”

He also said that, unlike more expensive media markets, the relatively cheap ad rates allow campaigns to go up with the soft biographical spots and their attack ads almost simultaneously.

“Normally, a campaign will run feel-good ads to build credibility first, and then turn their sights on offensive advertising in the closing portion of the race,” Shea said. “That’s not the way it happens in the 3rd, at least not in Erie. You can see a fuzzy background piece and a critical attack ad from the same candidate almost back-to-back.”

Whatever amount of money Kelly decides to put into the race could be a wild card. Butler, on the southern end of the district, is the local car dealer’s base, and Youngstown is generally considered more conservative than Erie.

In an interview, Kelly said his business background would be an asset in the campaign to sell himself politically.

“The business I’m in right now is all about advertising, all about branding yourself,” he said. “We’re going to spend whatever money we raise in the right way.”

June 3, 2010 at 5:12 pm

--John Manganaro

Tags: Kathy Dahlkemper, Mike Kelly, PA-3

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