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Double-Edged-Sword: Is Sestak good or bad for Bryan Lentz?

Double-Edged-Sword: Is Sestak good or bad for Bryan Lentz?

Joe Sestak’s come-from-behind win in last month’s Senate primary has Democrats in his Delaware County home base excited for November, but it’s also left them to quietly mull over something of a political riddle during the slow summer months: Is this good news or bad news for Bryan Lentz?

Lentz, a two-term state Representative, is the party’s nominee to succeed Sestak in the 7th Congressional District, and he faces a tough race against former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan. Ever since Sestak’s big win, Democrats have been weighing the pros and cons for Lentz. And in the process, they’ve found a sword that’s not so much double-edged as it is multi-edged.

On one hand, Sestak’s presence on the November ballot will surely turn out county voters in large numbers, people likely to vote Democratic at the top of the ticket. On the other hand, voters in Delaware County are well-known as ticket-splitters.

On one hand, Democrats widely agree that raising money will become a tougher task for Lentz, who is already facing a campaign cash deficit against Meehan. On the other hand, Lentz could benefit from the heavy network of Sestak volunteers that is sure to be deployed.

The only thing certain five months before Election Day is that it’s tough to say either way if Lentz benefits from the current political dynamic or not. Lentz, for his part, says having Sestak on the ballot is a net positive.

“No question there will be more enthusiasm within the district,” Lentz told pa2010.com this week. “He and I have run together before successfully on the same ticket, and I think those voters that supported him will find me similarly appealing as a candidate.”

The relationship between the two military veterans was hardly a friendly one four years ago. Lentz, a former Army Ranger, was running for the suburban Philadelphia seat in 2006. He was favored by some Democrats in Washington, but then Sestak, a former Navy Admiral, came on the scene, and Lentz exited the race at the behest of Gov. Ed Rendell. He ran for and won a state House seat in Swarthmore the same year Sestak knocked off longtime incumbent Republican Curt Weldon.

The two Democrats have recently developed a more friendly relationship. Rightly or wrongly, Sestak has a reputation for not deploying his political organization on behalf of other candidates. But he says he’s ready to help Lentz hold the seat.

“I’m going to work my heart out to get Bryan Lentz elected,” Sestak said during a recent interview in Bethlehem.

The Meehan campaign could not be reached for comment this week, but county GOP chairman Andy Reilly said Sestak would be no help to Lentz.

“I still believe Delaware County voters will vote individually,” Reilly said. “They’ve always been split-ticket voters.”

Having Sestak on the ballot, Reilly said, “may drive people out [to vote], but I still think that people who come out to vote for Sestak because he’s from Delaware County will also realize that Pat Meehan is from Delaware County. They’re going to vote for a candidate whose consistent with their views.”

Most Democrats agree that Sestak’s win makes fundraising a tougher task for Lentz in the competitive race, which is currently No. 1 on the pa2010.com Congressional Power Rankings. Meehan has been raising money at an impressive clip in recent months, and had almost $300,000 more campaign cash at the end of April. And fundraising aside, some Democrats remain decidedly bearish on Lentz’s prospects.

“I think that Bryan has an extremely uphill race regardless of his fundraising, and I don’t think Joe makes much of a difference,” one local Democratic insider said.

This party insider also cast doubt on the idea that Sestak’s volunteer network would be of much help to Lentz.

“Joe worked hard to build that organization and he’s going to make sure it keeps working for him,” he said. “To what extent they’ll work on both campaign remains to be seen, but Bryan is going to have to build his own volunteer organization.”

Tony Campisi, the vice-chairman of the county Democratic Party, had a different take.

“No question about it, it helps Bryan Lentz,” Campisi said. “It helps the whole Democratic ticket in the state to have a candidate at the top who excites the base of the party.

“A lot of the volunteers are as excited about Bryan as they are about Joe,” he added. “We have to make sure here that these two campaigns work together.”

A looming election for a new party chairman could also play a role in how things play out. Party officials will cast their votes next weekend to choose between Campisi and David Landau, a lawyer who ran for county council in 2007. Landau is a part of Lentz’s inner circle, and it’s possible he could push for more resources to be directed that way as chairman. But Campisi said Sestak, Lentz and all county candidates will be helping each other this year “if I have anything to say about it.”

Lentz remains optimistic, saying that the money will come. He half-jokingly equated the matchup of Sestak and Lentz vs. Pat Toomey and Pat Meehan to “Army and Navy vs. Lord and Taylor.”

“I think it helps fundraising in the overall analysis,” he said. “There is some competing for resources, but the fact is that anything that helps my chances helps my ability to raise money, because people like to give money to candidates they think are going to win. So the fact that we’re going to have more enthusiasm and greater turnout in the district gives me a real straight-faced argument to make about how we can win.”

If there’s one thing Democrats do agree on, it’s that exciting days are ahead for a local party that was in the doldrums for years.

“At the end of the day,” another insider said, “we’re just happy to have good candidates.”

Donald Hoegg contributed reporting.

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June 4, 2010 at 2:34 pm

--Dan Hirschhorn

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comments [38] | post a comment

  1. Good thing that Schlub Cliff Wilson is Gone

    Jun 4th, 2010

    Cliff Wilson had to be in Bed with Republicans Dems won in Delaware County despite Cliff Wilson sleeping with the enemy

  2. David Diano

    Jun 4th, 2010

    Sestak has a reputation for not deploying his political organization on behalf of other candidates
    Even during the odd years when he doesn’t need his organization.

    I wouldn’t characterize Landau as part of Lentz’s “inner circle” but rather that Landau happens to be located in the same section of the county where Lentz’s base is.
    In the 2007 county chairman’s race, Landau actively sabotaged and undermined his two Dem running mates as the three ran for three open seats. The Landau campaign was pushing “bullet-balloting” and encouraging their supporters to vote for Landau only, and not the rest of the ticket. It was a complete disgrace, and should be a disqualification for someone looking to lead the county party.

  3. David Diano

    Jun 4th, 2010

    Cliff fought the Republicans tooth and nail. It’s guys like Landau who would have their hand out for pay-to-play (or pay-to look the other way).

  4. s. d. willy

    Jun 4th, 2010

    Lentz only hurts Sestak. Joe knows it and so does every one else.

  5. phensley

    Jun 4th, 2010

    I would have thought it obvious that Sestak’s presence helps Lentz. Will there be competition for resources? Sure. But the effects of down-ballot coattails and improved turnout will be much more significant.

    And does anyone really think Delaware County Dems and Independents will split their tickets in significant numbers? Pat 1 (Meehan) is basically a stealth version of Pat 2 (Toomey). The histories of both reveal them to be Bush/Santorum Republicans. The only difference is Meehan’s farcical attempt to portray himself as a Delaware County moderate. Good one, Pat(s)!

  6. Notsure

    Jun 4th, 2010

    David Diano type drivel and loony screeds hurts the ticket and his support and the strident vitriol is the kiss of death to any party officer or candidate.
    I think maybe he got cadmium poisoning drinking out of the McDonald’s shreck glass he gets with his happy meals.
    November gonna be about BP Jobs and “the economy stupid”.
    The R’s are toast if they stay on the teabag express.

  7. Rick

    Jun 4th, 2010

    I am stunned this issue is being offered as a hard call on a politically sophisticated blog. Sestak helps Lentz immeasurably:

    1. Top of the ticket from Delco, Sestak brings out 3-4% higher turnout of D’s, I’s and college students rather than Specter bringing out moderate R’s for Meehan;

    2. Neil Oxman husbanding resources for both of his clients and running great ads (look for joint ads);

    3. Increased fundraising from Sestak contributors since Lentz was the only Pa. politician to stand with Sestak pre-primary;

    4. Two well decorated military vets will create synergy locally in VFW’s and fire halls;

    5. New energized local party leadership running dual lit drops, GOTV, etc. to prove their bona fides early on;

    6. It’s a big state and Joe knows that Bryan can watch his back in the 7th while he spends time elsewhere.

    Win, win, win for Lentz

  8. C Guiney

    Jun 4th, 2010

    Rick-
    I couldn’t have said it better myself.
    Lentz and Sestak will work together to build tremendous momentum in Delco. This synergy will help Sestak build his efforts across the Commonwealth.
    Republicans were afraid of this, as their work has just gotten harder since the primary.

  9. 1994 Again

    Jun 4th, 2010

    Some of you folks are delusional. Every good political strategist knows these races are not related in voters’ minds and won’t impact each other at all. The enthusiasm gap continues to favor the GOP in polling and this will likely be the case in November, boosting Republican turnout. This outweighs any silly notion of Sestak’s candidacy pulling Lentz across the finish line in Delco.

  10. JoeMontco

    Jun 4th, 2010

    Sestak and Lentz have very similar military progressive credentials. Sestak voters are Lentz voters whether or not they have the same volunteers.

    Lentz’s fundraising is cause for concern. Oxman won’t be able to make ads without sufficient funds.

  11. Matt M.

    Jun 4th, 2010

    Turnout is the name of the game in midterm elections. Even if Sestak’s organization eats into Lentz’s bank of volunteers (there are only so many weekends in the run-up to the first Tuesday in Nov.), the turnout of lever-pulling Democrats can only help Lentz, even if he’s a bit shorter on volunteer-power and fundraising.

    This, of course, depends on how BP, “jobgate,” the markets, and any unknown catastrophes fare in the months ahead. Five months is an eternity in politics.

  12. bill healy

    Jun 5th, 2010

    Some Sestak vols will be going over to help bryan’s canpaign.

  13. 1994 Again

    Jun 5th, 2010

    This election will be decided by the national political environment, not local volunteers. Will Obama help or hurt candidates this fall if his approval rating continues to be under 50% in our state? If Obama couldn’t save his chosen candidate Specter in a Dem primary, can he save Sestak in a general election? Do the polls showing early trends for Corbett and Toomey indicate a tough year for Democrats in Pennsylvania? These are all good questions.

  14. Bruce Bailey

    Jun 5th, 2010

    94 – You forget (conveniently?) that the candidate Obama supported in the Democratic primary was a 30-year Republican. Democrats did not vote against Obama, just in spite of him.

    This fall, Obama will help where he can (cities & nearby suburbs, mostly) to energize and GOTV among Democrats. And “the polls” at this point = Rasmussen. If you and your party want to put stock in that, please do — nothing like an overconfident opponent who listens to false news (or Fox News, for that matter).

  15. 1994 Again

    Jun 5th, 2010

    Hey, Bailey, Obama was a big help for Corzine and Coakley, wasn’t he? Critz didn’t even want him and preferred to campaign with Clinton instead. Onorato and Sestak avoided Obama’s Pennsylvania visit just a few days ago. Ample evidence that Obama is toxic for Democrats. How quickly The One has fallen.

  16. suburban dem

    Jun 6th, 2010

    biggest question unanswered…what leader do Sestak and Lentz think give them the best chance to win in November…Landau and his vast network of…of…hmmmmm…or Campisi who at least has a clue of how to run the County operation in a successful election cycle…the one year Landau tried to do that the ticket took a beating. I know the Landau trolls will be here soon to say otherwise but it is true…Landau’s won nothing but a DJ election every 6 years and local commissioner elections when the DJ runs…he spends the next 4 years losing the local commissioner races.

  17. Notsure

    Jun 6th, 2010

    Who has the votes is the question not who blogs the most. Both sides have frog and princes. The voters in deco seem top go on without much regard or the party. It is the nature of the beast out here.
    The whole world is hanging on with baited breath waiting for Jedi knight DD to froth and tell us what his magic vote o matic double top secret decoder ring says.
    Whoever he is for is the automatic loser ( in more ways than one).

  18. David Diano

    Jun 6th, 2010

    suburban dem-
    You left out, how in 2007, Landau’s campaign was telling it’s supporters to vote for only him (and bullet-ballot his two Dem running mates) for the three open seats on county council, when voters could vote for all three Dems in a straight ticket vote.
    That act of sabotage pretty much tells you everything you need to know about Landau’s leadership ability.
    Despite that betrayal, he still has supporters (who seem to have the same me-first mentality).

    My biggest knock against Campisi is that he gave Sestak A LOT more active support for the primary than Landau did. However, I don’t think that most of the committee voters will consider it a strike against Campisi for being a bigger Sestak supporter that Landau.

    I’m not on committee, so I don’t get to vote on this. Campisi is far more skilled/qualified, but that also means he would also be more effective at helping Sestak. Kind of two-steps-forward one-step-back.

  19. Go Flyers

    Jun 6th, 2010

    Anyone who thinks that Sestak is going to waste an ounce of volunteer capital helping Lentz is simply naive. Sestak is so busy trying to save himself now that he won’t waste any resources helping a sure loss in the 7th district. Sestak should have been honest from the start about the job offer, you can’t play into the anti-Washington sentiment and pretend to be a whistle blower when you protect the identities of the same people your blowing the whistle on. It’s quite ironic that someone with such a brilliant ad campaign can’t muster the sense to play this in his favor. He undoubtedly regrets that decision everyday and will do so in November when Toomey wins.

  20. Delco Blue Dog

    Jun 7th, 2010

    D.D.
    Let me guess- Campisi bought your altari sham wow vote-o- matic or promised to give you top secret data in exchange for using your crap.
    Either being a member of the committee is beneath you or you cant get elected.
    You are the ultimate bleacher queen

  21. Lana

    Jun 7th, 2010

    As a committee person Delco I will vote my conscience. How could anyone vote for Campisi that has been involved for any time at all. We all have seen that Wilson and Campisi couldn’t elect squat and nor could them raise money nor did they try. We had 11 elected officials but now we only have 2 house member’s. Why is that? Wilson and Campisi took the Democratic party back 75 years, The 2 candidates ran their own campaigns and won house seats since Wilson was too worried with taking money from Brady of Philadelphia. I didn’t agree on a very small matter 8 years ago and Campisi never has spoken to me since ! Is that any way tp lead a party ? I worked for the state party at that time and was very embarased when Cliff Wilson showed up to a State Committee meeting with only his suppoters in tow. I believe that for many years that they were working for the Republicans and it was clear that Wilson had no clue what he should be doing. He and Campisi were so dumb that they only ran their friends and the party always lost.

    Did anyone in Delco have any chance of wining with such nobodies running. Laudau will have a next to impossible task of rebuilding the party but he will die trying.

    Sestak is another story and he is all about Joe. He wasn’t even a Democrat till 3 days before he filled to run for Congress. He came from the Clinton’s so let the Clinton’s get him elected to the Senate. I say none of the above and will not vote for either of the phoney guys. I will cast my ballot for the Green candidate for the US Senate. This is far too important than to play “team politics” when they both are horrible candidate’s that are only looking for a paycheck. Hasn’t No Show Joe been like this living for free before he was demoted by the Navy ? Like most people I had to work for my money and I did so as a single Mom that had to raise 3 kids. Let’s put them all in the unemployment line and give the new guy a chance. Was there a choice to bullet ballot in the County Council race, Of course not. There was no way the other two could win and Landau had to bullet for himself. That is called politics 101. Baulis has been on the ballot so many times that she was able to get the blue dog vote, no one ever heard of the other guy so why not bullet ballot.?
    Now it is time which is long overdue to rebuild this party. I believe with only two choices I have to go with Landau.
    Campisi is just like Wilson. He has never asked me for a vote so why would I vote for someone that is a carbon copy of Wilson. Never!

    Come on Sunday it is a new day for the Democrat’s. I have been a Democrat my whole life and I am 63 but if Campisi should win, I am out of the whole mess. As Wilson has set us up for a loss in the fall, I will go with Landau, there is no other way to vote.
    Does this show that I am helping to elect Toomey or Corbett ? Not ! I am just tired of playing “team” politics. I must say, none of the above, they are both cut out of the sane cookie mold. Could it get any worse ?

  22. Lana

    Jun 7th, 2010

    Good thing

    I must say you are right ! Sad but true

  23. Lana

    Jun 7th, 2010

    So far Lentz is above the fray and he will make a good member of Congress that will serve both D’s and R’s. He should have been elected when Sestak came on the scene but he bowed out of the race for Rendell and the Clinton’s. Lentz has served his country with honor and he would do so as a Congressman. I don’t agree with him 100% but I will take the 98% that I do agree with him. If you don;t live in the 7th CD, please keep your mouth shut and worry about your own district.

  24. rplinpa

    Jun 7th, 2010

    The obvious point should be made: Had Sestak not given up his seat Lentz wouldn’t even have a chance to run for Congress. It’s not Joe’s responsibility to run Lentz’s campaign and anyone who runs for a high level office like Congress BETTER have a base from which to pull volunteers and money. If Lentz hadn’t buildt that base it’s his fault, not Sestak’s.

    As to DD’s continued bashing of Sestak and Sestak’s willingness to help down ticket candidates, I can tell you he’s already been to my Republican district to support our fledging Democrat running for Congress. Sestak continues to play with those who will play with him. Spit in his face, and chances are you’ve soiled your own bed.

  25. David Diano

    Jun 7th, 2010

    Delco Blue Dog-
    Didn’t run for committee and wasn’t interested in it. I’ve got more freedom to support non-endorsed candidates by being a non-committee member.
    As for my system, it’s been free to Delco committee since I developed it, and I’m the one giving them data, not the other way around.

    I’m not advocating for Campisi, because he supported Sestak and would do a good job for him. He and I don’t get along at all and Tony is very different than Cliff. I wouldn’t really consider Tony to be a continuation of Cliff’s legacy (though many others do). Tony worked for Cliff, but has a different way of doing things. The anti-Cliff crowd makes the mistake of equating them and won’t cooperate if Tony gets in.

    I think the party (and Sestak) deserve 4 years of Landau for several reasons. 1) When Landau does a bad job, people will realize how good Cliff was. 2) It will hurt Sestak. 3) Sestak might finally realize how much Cliff actually did for him. 4) With Landau in, Sestak will need to rely upon (and value) Lentz more.

    I’ve already chalked up the Senate race as a loss, so if Landau is chair, he’ll take the blame in Delco along with the anti-Cliff crowd he’d put on the council. So, I’m hoping Landau gets in so the anti-Cliff crowd gets enough rope to hang themselves. Up till now, they’ve been like the GOP in that they’ve been the party-of-NO (no ideas and no help).

    Lana-
    There is NO chance that Cliff or any of his people were supporting Republicans. Quite the contrary actually, as Cliff made a point of getting GOP collaborators thrown out of committees and such.

    There was no way the other two could win and Landau had to bullet for himself. That is called politics 101.
    This statement shows a complete lack of understanding of math and voting. Voting for ALL three doesn’t take any votes away from Landau. And voting for just Landau does take votes away from his two Dem running mates.
    What REALLY went on was that Landau was trying to prevent his running mates from getting more votes than him, under the (idiotic) theory that if only one Dem was going to get in (in case one GOP was weak), he wanted to be the Dem with the most votes.
    Basically, if Landau couldn’t be that guy, then he didn’t want any other Dem winning.
    The proper strategy was to advocate for a united straight party ticket or to shut-up. But to actively tell your supporters, in a General election, not to vote for the two other Dems on the ticket is pure sabotage.
    But, since Sestak’s the kind of candidate who sabotaged down-ticket St. Reps in 2006, Landau is the perfect Chairman to sabotage Sestak for his own local interests.

    rplinpa-
    How about the “point” that Sestak deceptively collected over $3 million dollars from unwitting donors under the pretense of holding the seat? If Sestak had any honor (which he doesn’t), he would have offered to give the money back to donors who wanted it to go toward the 7th district race.

    “Sestak continues to play with those who will…” kiss his ass (but will still turn on them if it suits his interests).
    “Spit in his face…” and you never have sacrifice your self-esteem catering to his whims.

  26. David Diano

    Jun 7th, 2010

    BTW, it’s funny how Lana is one of the biggest anti-Sestak people and anti-Cliff people here and is supporting Landau. Doesn’t seem like a coincidence.

  27. Notsure

    Jun 7th, 2010

    David:
    Sounds like your “system” is overpriced at $zero.
    Your rationalization to Blue Dog sounds like plain old fashioned fear (probably well placed) of a public rejection of your harping and fixated troll goggled view of the Democratic party and its candidates.
    Easy to carp from the 700 level stands.

  28. David Diano

    Jun 7th, 2010

    Notsure-
    I’ve got season tickets on the floor at center-court. You aren’t even in the arena. Over 200 local Dem committee people in the SE PA used my system last month. I get emails all the time thanking me for my efforts.

    How many used your system?
    Oh.. right..you don’t have one.

    What contribution do you even make to the Democratic party, O Nameless and Unskilled One?

    If I had any fear, I could hide behind an anonymous handle like you do. What are YOU so afraid of?

  29. bill healy

    Jun 7th, 2010

    Dave your a joke, you couldn’t even get appointed as a committee person,as for Lara don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

  30. bill healy

    Jun 7th, 2010

    Lara maybe you can be a committee women for the Green party, the democrats don’t need committee people who don’t support the party.

  31. Notsure

    Jun 7th, 2010

    David:
    My skill, at a minimum is grounded in having a humble grip on reality, unlike yourself.
    A person like you with a reputation as a blog troll nacasisist nit-wit with delusions of grandure can try and self promote their “identiy” as if their delusional slobbering is validated by wearing the “President David Diano of Diano Fan Club” name tag.
    Dude, you have season tickets to the center court at the Spectrum. Ever wonder why nobody is there with you? (I may be wrong and there may be a full house of your imaginary friends).

  32. David Diano

    Jun 7th, 2010

    Bill-
    Not only could I have been appointed as a committee member, I’ve been asked to run for committee several times, and declined.

    Nosure-
    Few people have as much reason to be humble as you do. No wonder you hide behind an anonymous blog handle.

  33. Notsure

    Jun 7th, 2010

    David:
    Listening to you Púca does not count as someone asking you to run, nor does the imperial council of your imaginary fans constitute real voters or party leaders that would even consider you for block captain.These must be the same folks that stuck the Sestak bumper sticker on your back at a party function. Boy are you feared and respected.
    You childishly picked this site and this media to creep, slander and kartoon and then ape ignorance of the tradition of political speech in America and whine about internet blog “handles”.
    Twit.

  34. David Diano

    Jun 7th, 2010

    Notsure-
    You sound jealous because I’ve been asked and you haven’t. Boo Hoo for you.

    You just keep hiding behind your keyboard. It’s all you seem to be good at.

  35. Delco Blue Dog

    Jun 8th, 2010

    Yuck, yuck yuck yuck.
    David:
    You left out that notsure is a poopey head and his/her feet smell.
    Back to on topic, it would be dangerous for the Democratic ticket to take the summer off and just fund raise. The entire ticket has to show a plan for Pa’s recovery and not harp on partisan themes.
    Everybody is sick of the negative finger pointing and wonkie or hateful inside ball drek and talking points.
    I think the Pa Budget is going to be a nasty melt down and every race will be splashed with its toxic waste. On the national scene , the BP disaster will drive the news cycles and public psyche at least for the summer.
    The Dem’s have a shot in Pa (unless they go soft and far left) because they , for the most part in PA are not the party in power in the state and can credibly claim they are the reform non incumbents

  36. [...] Double-Edged-Sword: Is Sestak good or bad for Bryan Lentz? | pa2010.com [...]

  37. Aw, c'mon

    Jun 16th, 2010

    Geez, did I just stumble into the local kindergarten sandbox, or what?

  38. forex robot

    Jul 3rd, 2010

    My cousin recommended this blog and she was totally right keep up the fantastic work!

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