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Barletta, observers see little downside in two defeats

Lou Barletta hopes the third time will be the charm. Paul Kanjorski hopes his longtime foe is getting to three strikes and you’re out.

Kanjorski, the Democratic incumbent in the 11th Congressional District, has already dispatched two challenges from Barletta in the last eight years. Whether and how having already lost twice will play out for Barletta remains to be seen. But at least a couple political observers say voters have yet to render their final judgments. Echoing what Barletta himself notes, analysts say it was a large Democratic turnout in 2008 that pushed Kanjorski to a three-point win, in a year when he was widely considered the most vulnerable Democrat in Congress.

“Kanjorski won because Obama brought out [Democratic] voters in Lackawanna [County],” said Franklin & Marshall College pollster G. Terry Madonna, who closely followed the 2008 race.

“This year,” Madonna said, “Democrats might have some trouble with turnout.”

Tom Baldino, a political scientist at Wilkes University, agreed that turnout would be a different game this time around.

“We do have a competitive gubernatorial race and a competitive U.S. Senate race, so that might generate some voter interest,” Baldino said. “But we won’t see near the numbers we did in 2008.”

Kanjorski’s campaign declined to comment for this article, but it has previously said that after two rejections at the hands of voters, Barletta’s political appeal in the district is crystal clear. As Kanjorski campaign spokesman Ed Mitchell said late last year when Barletta declared his candidacy: “Hearing that Mr. Barletta is running for Congress again reminds me of what Yogi Berra said. ‘This is like deja vu all over again.’”

Changing voters’ minds when they’ve twice gone against you is indeed a tall task. But Barletta, the Hazleton mayor, doesn’t see it that way.

“I don’t really believe they voted the same way twice,” Barletta told pa2010.com during a recent interview in his Hazleton campaign headquarters. “This is a district that is 2-1 Democrats over Republicans, and the 2008 campaign was an election where Democrats were sweeping across the United States. And in this very strong Democratic district, Barack Obama won the presidency [by more than 17 points], while Kanjorski beat me by three percent in his own district. That was after they spent $7 million against me in the campaign.

“I see the 2002 campaign and the 2008 campaign as very different,” he added. “2008 was a year that was an Obama tsunami, and most people in this district believe that Paul Kanjorski didn’t beat me, Barack Obama did. Those voters, the Obama first-time, one-time voters, most likely will not be out in force as they were in 2008.”

In a political climate defined by anti-incumbency, Madonna said Barletta’s past defeats would play a limited role in the race.

“Congressional races are about the incumbent… how voters feel about health care, jobs, the economy,” Madonna said. “I don’t think voters will sit down and say ‘[Barletta] is a two-time loser.’”

Madonna pointed to the elder Bob Casey, who unsuccessfully ran for governor three times before being elected in 1986.

Added Baldino: “If anything, the two previous campaigns will give [Barletta] an advantage—voters in the 11th know almost everything there is to know about him. The race will be a referendum on Kanjorski, so Barletta just needs to focus on being a viable alternative.”

Dan Hirschhorn contributed reporting from Hazleton.

June 30, 2010 at 1:30 pm

--Donald Hoegg

Tags: Lou Barletta, PA-11, Paul Kanjorski

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