That $2MM edge will give Corbett a good head start on advertising in the southeast, where neither he nor Onorato are essentially unknown. With two Pittsburgh natives competing, neither of which being especially well-known in the other half of the state, that could make a big difference.

Philadelphia will likely not exhibit the type of massive turnout that was crucial to Rendell’s two victories, since nobody there will recognize either candidate. Maybe Phila will be a forgotten campaign ground this season?

Keep dreaming Matty Boy. When Tom Corbett goes to bed at night be has nightmares about how bad he is going to get whooped in Philadelphia come November. It’ll be a nasty deficit to over come. He better get some dead Republicans to the polls in the T.

TB, I’m not saying I prefer one candidate to another, I’m just commenting objectively. Why do you think Philadelphia will come out in such “whooping” numbers?

RE: Matt, Why do you think Philadelphia will come out in such “whooping” numbers?

In a word: Sestak. While both candidates for governor are from the west, Sestak isn’t. He will pull the progressive Dems (and most of the rest too.) to the polls. The whole Repub ticket is looking at a nightmare prospect of geographical suicide. Sestak voters will go for Onorato and vice-versa.

With Sestak and Onorato camps planning coordinated campaigns with local candidates and county committees, the base will be working hard. VERY smart move on their behalf. Our coordinated planning session is planned for Monday night.

It’s not as much that Philly will come out in huge numbers to vote for Onorato, it’s that of the numbers that do come out, they will overwhelmingly go Democrat.

Both because of Sestak, and because it’s Philly.

Boy what a mess PA is in now. Neither candidate for Gov should get anyone’s vote as well as the two losers for the US Senate. Toomey is a quack and Sestak is not qualified as you would know if you didn’t just play team politics. At least two of the candidates are under investigation, only one will somehow come out alive.

burghe 55

Why do you think that Sestak will get over whelming numbers in the fall. I live in his district in the 7th CD and know just how bad he really is and it is all about him ! I have always been a Democrat and have always voted for the Democrats but sure not this year. I will be voting Green. I will vote Democratic for the rest of the ticket and not worry a damn about the idiots at the top of the ticket.

I believe that Philadelphia Democrats will come out in big numbers for two key reasons.

1) The head of the City Party, Bob Brady, is out to prove himself. He fell on his sword to get his boy Saidel over the top and Saidel lost in a nail biter. I suspect that Brady’s endorsment of Williams was half hearted and was a result of Williams suggesting that if Brady didn’t him in the primary Williams would either challenge him in a primary for the House seat or challenge him for the leadership of the City Party. These two developments revealed slight cracks in Brady’s power not only in the City Party but in the State Party as well. To show potential rivals in the City Party and doubters in the State Party that he still wields power Brady wants to and will have the City Party working its tail off to have high turnout in Philadelphia to help put the Dems at the top of the tickets over the top. If Brady is able to get the high turnout he wants and the Democratic Party so desperately needs in Philadelphia in November he will have a United States Senator and a Governor that are eternally grateful and owe their victories to him.

2) The Democrats are scared to death of having the Repthugs in power in the State House, State Senate, and Governor’s mansion for reapportionment because they remember how bad the Republicans screwed them ten years ago. They will never forget it and it is a major motivator for party activists to get out the vote.

This site seems pretty partisan. A buch of sleaztak rats are crawling around here. Guys, I live in Philly and Sestak is not exciting anyone. Specter would have been a much better choice for democrats but they decided to go with the move on crowd. No one in Philly is excited about Onarato either. Toomey is running a good campaign. I’m not a republican but I can see that. As an independent, i’m less comfortable with sestak’s views which are pretty far left. He supports cap and trade and it will hurt my business.

TB, your two hypotheses are creative (at least the first one is), but ultimately a little too far-fetched.

First, formidable though he and his organization are, I doubt Bob Brady could single-handedly “make” Philadelphia turnout. He supported Specter, and we know how well that “turnout” worked out.

Second, Sestak will never, ever, ever attribute “his” political victories to anyone else, and will never consider himself to be in the position of “owing” anybody anything. We all owe Sestak, Sestak does not owe us.

At this point, there’s no way to read the turnout tea leaves and predict that any candidate has it in the bag. Following the money, at least, gives us some clue about how things may go, at least in the short run.