But the main reason Specter lost is because Specter is Specter and it finally caught up with him. Great op-eds today by Ruth Marcus in Washington Post painting him as a selfish toddler and by Linda Greenhouse in NY Times discussing his breathtaking and intellectually dishonest inconsistencies on legal issues. Good riddance!

Staff-
That’s a pretty good run-down of what happened.

However, I think there was an East-West element as well. Western PA is not really big on Philly candidates. Rendell is not as popular out West as he is in Philly area. Specter is very associated with Philly (which went 60-40 in his favor) since he started his career as DA. In the West, it went 40-60 (a 40-point swing from Philly).

I think you have a point with the Obama element. Liberals disappointed with Obama were not energized to support Specter. Conservative Dems, who “took a chance on Obama” and now disapprove of his policies, didn’t reward Obama by going with his pick.

The dynamics of the General election are going to be different. Sestak scorned the “establishment and Washington” endorsements of Specter. The attitude was not “I value them and wish I had them”, but rather “nobody cares who endorses you”. So, the endorsements that Sestak will inevitably get are going to be a little awkward and in need of spin adjustment. (I don’t think that will be Toomey’s main focus, but he’ll probably poke some fun at Joe and the Dems.)
Basically, as a challenger you can get away some some anti-party, anti-establishment stuff, but when it comes to the General election, Joe’s got to win over the 44% that voted (and worked) against him.

I’m not even going to predict a winner for November, because I simply don’t care for either candidate. I still think Specter would have done better against Toomey (especially if there had been NO Primary and Sestak had embraced Specter’s arrival in 2009), but we’ll never get to see that campaign, so no one will ever know for sure.

Joe’s got an uphill battle against Obama’s low approval numbers, Toomey with some wind at his back in a “change” year, and economic uncertainty.

Sestak may not be the “incumbent”, but he is a member of the party in power and a sitting US Congressman. That may still hit a few nerves.
Joe’s really going to NEED Philly. Delaware County isn’t going to go 70%-30% for him in a general election.

I’ve always disagreed with the political “expert” position that primaries are bad and leave the victorious person weakened and bloodied for the general election. Winning a tough primary was fantastic for Rendell in 2002, and even better for Obama in 2008.

The Democratic Senate primary in Pennsylvania was the number one watched election on Tuesday. The Republican House Caucus is blaming Tim Burns loss on the surge of support for Sestak. Sestak will be on the Sunday morning shows. Everyone, everywhere has been talking about nothing but Sestak, Sestak, Sestak.

There is no doubt that it will be a tough fight in the fall, particularly if Toomey can somehow manufacture a moderate veneer.

But this primary gave Sestak a huge boost. The excitement just wasn’t there for Specter, and that would have been fatal in the fall.

Specter is an arrogant Conceited asshole that’s why he lost Oh Yea and He has Alzheimer’s now

Sestak has it tough. A new Rasmussen poll shows that he is ahead but I believe that to be a bounce from the primaries. I think it will evaporate. Toomey should attack him on his anti- gun stance which could kill Sestak in PA. I just see Sestak running on a military record and sob stories about why we need UHC.
Plus, Critz ran as an anti-obama dem, so Sestak will lose a lot of conservative democrat votes because he is almost a pelosi voter.

Let’s understand that many of the points made reflect the opinions of each candidates’ supporters. And to be fair, there is merit on both sides of the Specter/Sestak race. More often than not, users who read and comment on PA2010 are politically astute. So please understand that PA will suffer from the lost of Specter’s seniority. You cannot count on Casey, because it just does not happen that way in DC. Bringing federal money to Pennsylvania is critical; always has been and is needed even more given the economy and the deterioration of the infrastructure in PA. So now Sestak is the Democratic nominee. Well I think it is fair to say that this election was more about retiring Specter than electing Sestak. I voted for Joe, but I did so reluctantly. He is considered a light weight on Capitol Hill. I have heard joe’s campaign speeches many, many times over the past two (2) years. What really concerns me is when he states that he is going to do what he wants to do as a Senator. What Joe, Arlen and many of the elected officials fail to understand is that they represent the people in their districts and their votes must be made on behalf of his or her constituents; it is not a personal bank account. For those of us who know Joe, the Admiral is use to doing what he wants to do and that is not necessarily good. Finally, the comments and discussions on this page are very relevant and on point. I truly believe that the Democratic Ticket will fail this November. The West versus the East nonsense has become an ALL OUT WAR! It has been brewing for years and Philly IS DETERMINED to show the West just what it can do when they are double crossed and insulted. I am friends with a few of their reliable, insiders and Onorato has made a serious mistake by not having a balanced East- West ticket. Saidel’s numbers were huge in Philadelphia and the 5 counties surrounding it. Conklin and Ribner Smith both contributed to killing the Democratic Party’s opportunity to keep the Governor’s seat in the fall. The fact that goes unnoticed to the average person is that Onorato is Rendell’s hand picked successor. He aligned Estey with Dan and they have been raising money and working for a few years to get Dan elected. Problem was is that Dan tried to be a king before he was elected and actively worked against Saidel in the early going. By the time Dan came to his senses, he had alienated himself with Brady back East and that will be the contributing factor to Onorato’s loss in the fall.Don’t be fooled by the “soundbites”about “family squabbles” and party unity in the General election. It is now personal and Brady has to show his muscle behind the scenes, and defeat Onorato. There is talk about challenging him for hie seat and Chairmanship. This is due to the failure of Brady to hold the West to keeping their word. Jim Burn who is seeking the chair of Democratic State Committee is also being held responsible for not delivering Saidel out West. Objectively, Jim Burn either screwed Brady or has no clout or control; and either way Burn is going to get bloodied. Finally, Obama has lost his credibility. He deserted Specter and since his election, his organization has gotten fat with their spoils from winning; and that is very disappointing. Obama is getting the crap knocked out of him and Pennsylvania is returning to the Republicans. And to think that it could have been avoided…

PS -I checked out Democrats for Tom Corbett via a college friend back East who is very active and he confirmed that some of the people committing to Corbett are real get out the vote operative in Philadelphia’s Democratic Party.

I am still mystified about Brady and the Williams campaign. I watched that whole group huddle during the state committee meeting when the endorsements were done and wondered then what their objective was. Did Brady really think
Williams had a shot? Was it an opportunity to help Onorato by taking votes away from Hoeffel? Was it an effort to help Specter in an effort to boost the African American vote in Philly? Or, as Adam suggests, is there a grudge between Onorato and himself?

Brady is getting long in the tooth and I don’t see how he gains by a Corbett win. More and more people are noting his “machine” is a paper tiger. This year they blamed the rain. Last year they blamed that there were no major countywide races. (2008 was the Obama team’s doing, not Brady’s) Every year a new excuse. Every year thy are becoming less relevant.

Adams’ assessment of Burn is interesting. I don’t like his attitude, but my understanding is the candidate for governor gets to pick his own team and I assume Burn is that guy. I am with Marcel Groen myself.

As to Seidel: seriously flawed candidate. Someone high up with state committee dropped word of a September indictment that would cripple the ticket if Seidel got picked. Very serious charge and of course, it was hush hush. I got it 3rd or 4th hand.

I think we have a great chance this year. With Corbett’s “Twitter-gate” and other over reaching abuse of office, I think he’s a little full of himself and opening the door to lots of criticism. Toomey… ha…. that guy will be exposed for who he is. Obama is doing a great job steering our country – especially with what he was left with. By November we will be well on the road to recovery and the Dems will look like heros.

IMHO.

Adam-
Pretty good analysis.
Sestak’s light-weight status is not going to be helped by his opposition to the party leadership. He can crow that he doesn’t own them any favors, but they don’t own him any either.

Saidel just ran a half-ass campaign. I saw him at several events and I could not get him to engage in a serious conversation. He was completely cocky and more interested in his stand-up comedian act. He was just kind of dismissive, as though he had the whole thing sewn up.
You are dead on about Onorato being Rendell’s boy. The stench of corruption and pay-for-play makes Dan seem like Rendell and Fumo had a love-child when they were teenagers.
With his pro-life, pro-gun, anti-gay views, I really don’t find Onorato worthy of my vote (and not Corbett either). I couldn’t bring myself to vote for Bob Casey, Sr. back in 1990, and I can’t imagine what Onorato has to offer to overcome his obvious defects.

Out of 4 four races on the ballot, only Lentz (CD-7) and Vitali (St. Leg 166) are worthy of my vote.

Adam-

Dont come after me, I am out west and voted for Arlen and Saidel and supported both. They were the better candidates. However, i do acknowledge the loser “homer” mentality that exists out here. I could care less where the candidates are from and ive proudly supported candidates from the east and west the same. I am predicting a “Red November” myself.

Problem with Saidel is that he campaigned as “Rendell’s guy,” or “Brady’s guy,” and I voted against him precisely for that reason. I don’t think that I am alone in that. I am sick of these so-called “bosses,” largely career politicians like Rendell, Brady, and others of that ilk, trying to dictate their choices. When people follow these self-interested politicans like lemmings, that’s how you end up with bad choices like Specter. Don’t know if Saidel was in the same class, but I wasn’t taking any chances. If Rendell and Brady were for him, he was not going to be my choice, at least in a year when they also were trying to shove Specter down everyone’s throat.

David Snarlin Alen LOST Get over it already

Two words: Jared. Solomon.

With his military background, I think Sestak should have the cover to address the “gun” issue with common-sense ideas that would not threaten any legitimate firearm owner or hunter. One handgun a month, gun-show loophole. Frame it in the deamage done to families, the cost to taxpayers of prosecution, incarceration and medical treatment of (generally) uninsured victims of gun violence.

NRA F. Sestak’s F will be for Fife, as in Barney Fife and his one bullet w these voters.

http://wtpotus.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/barney_fife.jpg

“Hunter Joe” would be a phony, like John Kerry in the waning days of 04. If so, i want to see him shoot some pidgeons or something (j/k)

Richard-
I was talking to a friend of mine who’s a “gun enthusiast”, but not some crazy militia type. He likes picking up interesting guns, trading them for others, etc. He treats the buying, selling, trading like you might treat comic books, star trek souvenirs, or bottles of fine wine.
As a law-abiding guy, my friend thinks limiting his purchases would ruin his “legitimate” gun show experience. So, he’s not going to be swayed by the argument you suggest for Sestak.
Also, I don’t see that argument playing West where they tend to look at the gun violence problem as a “big city” issue.

I don’t know if Toomey has ever been out hunting in the woods or is a regular hunter. If he is a legitimate hunter, then he’ll probably do even better on the issue.

Just as the discussion gets good, the “future potential hacks” get online and rub insults into people who seriously care about effective government. What are you going to do? Some people don’t get it… Just a brief note, over the past two (2) years I have had the pleasure of meeting people from both Sestak and Specter’s campaigns and I can say that they were passionate, forceful and informed. But most important is that they were all loyal; for various reasons, but loyal nonetheless.
I understand how people feel that Saidel is Brady’s guy or Rendell’s guy, but the truth is that he is not really close to either of them from a political view, but at least in Brady’s case, it would be near impossible to be independent of Brady, at least on the surface, and get the support he would need from Philadelphia- now that’s the conundrum with which Saidel is saddled. Brady’s chairmanship has always been fragile and relies on the support of many African American ward leaders, who are then fragmented into even more coalitions, that are only worried about their special interest$ and need$. The white South Philadelphia river ward and Northeast leaders have been fragmented as well from the uber-testosterone rampages between John Dougherty, Brady and Fumo. Dougherty has made things in these areas an Irish-Italian war that really exists only in his mind. However, it has severely discounted the actual voting value of these areas. Rendell has never given anything to Saidel, but he has given everything to Ballard Spahr and its friends. Check out the past 8 years and you can see the actual connections, and John Estey is Rendell’s conduit for all things given in one way or another. Of course, they will deny it. DO you really expect them to tell the truth? What has Rendell done for Philadelphia in the past 8 years as Governor? ZERO If anyone can tell us anything of substance please let us know. And then there is the problem with Central and Western PA. They are really good people just like those back East. But we in the West and Central think that Philadelphia is receiving everything from Rendell and that is just not the case. Rather than argue what we think we know, how about some people getting together and researching the past 8 years? Make no mistake about it my friends -THERE IS AN EAST-WEST WAR in the Democratic Party and it will not be resolved for the good of the party this November. Oh there may be nice words and hugs, but I can assure you that the Philadelphia Democratic Party will be gunning for Onorato this November and no amount of money can make it work. Onorato should have known that he needed Saidel from the very beginning. You just cannot say enough about the need for candidates with professional CPA backgrounds. Onorato’s obstinence is a Rendell trademark “I AM KING OF THE WORLD” attitude. And Dan’s arrogance from the beginning created this war. Jim Burn will get picked if Dan would have won. But crunch the numbers and factor in the fact that many of the black voters will not be voting this November and the white voters in Philadelphia will be voting for Corbett. Even in the best of circumstances, it is difficult to get Philly voters to come out for statewide races, but the voters that come out will be voting for Corbett. Obama has failed his own party and the result this November will enable “the 8 year cycle” to be realized. Our only shot is if the recount puts Saidel back in this race and that is not likely, although I know that there are shenanigans aplenty in our area in the West.

Toomey is anti-choice, and that’s a huge issue. Most don’t want to go back to the dark Santorum days.

pro gun and pro life here in western pa!!!!!!

I think you’re all making this way more complicated and involved than it needs to be. And there are some accepted truths in many of these posts that I completely disagree with — for example, from Adam: “Obama has lost his credibility.” I don’t believe that’s even remotely true, and when we get to next November, we’ll see it proved out.

Much of the discussion, especially from Adam, seems to assume that the governor’s race is going to drive the turnout and the results this November. I do not buy into that for a second. Just as Sestak-Specter sucked all the air out of the Governor’s primary this spring, Sestak-Toomey will overwhelm much of the Onorato-Corbett race in November. And unlike with Specter, Obama will get himself involved and will drive turnout among African American voters in Philly. Where the East-West balance works in Democrats favor is that Sestak will especially motivate SE PA Democrats, and Onorato will motivate Western Dems. With their 1.2 million registration advantage, both races should go Democratic with fairly comfortable margins.

Bruce-
I think the pro-life, pro-gun Western Dems (like Onorato is one of) will go for pro-life pro-gun Toomey.

Adam,
Obviously, the voters of Philadelphia couldn’t be bothered to show up and vote for Saidel in the primary – what makes you think his absence from the ticket (or presence) will impact turnout in the General? Saidel is an absolute clown.

If Philly fails to show up again in the General, it won’t be because they listened to Bob Brady; that’s what they do every election. If there’s one thing they’re good at in Philadelphia, it’s NOT voting.

Diano and Westpadems if I had gotten my clock as cleaned as you two did with your predictions about how the Senate primary would play out I’d have the good sense to just shut up till I had a clue…lol,good luck with that Toomey thing in Nov. with you two pushing his candidicy here Joe Sestak should win by 12 pts at least. Maybe you guys can share a Ouige board,or consult a palm reader.I’ll leave you two armchair political consultants to your own devices,maybe you can contact “hatesestak” and get his opinion after he’s done wetting his pants over Joe winning.

Bill-
Here in the “normal” part of the state ( ) Joe lost. WestDem’s got a right to be pissed because 60% of his team ran down the wrong end of the field and scored a victory for the GOP.

I’m not “pushing Toomey’s candidacy”. I don’t like Toomey, but I don’t like Sestak either. Both are unfit to serve in the Senate.
I wish a better candidate would run as an independent instead of those two turkeys. Would state election law prevent someone like Jack Wagner from running for Senate?

As for predictions, pretty much everybody had the race too close to call. Rasmussen’s poll was 12 days before the election, and was past it’s shelf-life. The final average of the various polls had the race around Sestak +2 or +3. The 8-point final result was well outside the margin of error for the averaged-poll.
The “pros” got it wrong, so don’t get so cocky about your own Kool-aid fueled amateur predictions. You’ve won a battle, but you haven’t won the war.

For November, unless a third candidate emerges, I’ve got no one to root for in the Senate race, as both candidates represent a loss for Pennsylvania.

simple in november…straight dem carries it cause republicans are the party that wants to repeal the civil rigvhts act, trample on first amendment freedoms by using grand jury subpoenas, deregulate drilling and say not to anything that this president porposes that is good bad or indifferent…in short GOP has no ideas other than saying NO or just bad ideas…PA is not that dumb. Corbett is an empty suit and toomey is a radical republican. Philly will vote because it is needed. Western and middle PA will vote D bc Sestak and Onorato are much better choices that Toomey and Corbett.

How about we wait until the election gets closer. I do not expect everyone to understand the EAST-WEST War. But I stand firmly on my information and we shall see what develops, but you can save my prediction that Onorato will lose as I stated.

Regarding Obama losing his credibility – perhaps my point could have been better stated. My point is that Obama deserted Specter and turned his back on him. He was used by Obama and people who like Specter despise Obama for deserting him and people who hate Specter could care less what Obama did.They are just happy that Specter lost. But it does not sit well with party leaders who were forced to support Specter because of Obama. And Allegheny County & Philadelphia were pressured big time by the White House. The real loser is Pennsylvania. The money and seniority that Specter brought to PA cannot and will not be replaced. You think Obama is going to make up the losses for PA? Do not hold your breath my friends!

Dave figure you would consider the only 3 counties Sestak didn’t carry as normal. You most definatly give Charles Krauthammer a run for the money in being consistantly wrong. Your perceptions are clouded you assume Toomey is a strong candidate because of your PERSONAL dislike of Sestak. Your personal feelings are not shared by a majority of Pennsylvania democrats,Joe Sestak by 12 at least.

Some of us are just sick and tired of the Democratic Leadership thinking they are king makers who can choose the candidate they want and then clear the primary field so the voters have no choice but to vote for the “anointed one.”
I am grateful to Joe Sestak for standing up to these undemocratic power brokers. Let’s hope they got the message, but frankly I doubt it.

Adam, based on your further comments I have to assume you are either part of the PA Democratic leadership or closely tied to it. Your lingering bitterness over the outcome of Sestak-Specter drips from every word.

Free advice is worth what you pay for it, but here’s mine to you and PA Democratic leadership: instead of being bitter, learn from this and make changes.

End the practice of state committee endorsements and allow each county the freedom to endorse in every race, including judges.

Forbid state party leaders from making statements for or against primary candidates.

Open state committee operations to some fresh air by expanding and strengthening communications with ALL Democrats.

Make this a party that listens, instead of a party that orders.

Now about your Obama comments: I still say you’re dead wrong. Obama did not turn his back on Specter; instead he strongly supported the Specter campaign, appearing here on Arlen’s behalf earlier in the campaign, helping to raise funds and lending his image and his voice to late-campaign ads for Specter.

Still, it was apparent that Specter was going to crash and burn. When Joe Biden made a late-campaign trip to appear with Specter in Scranton, the appearance drew just 300 or so people, most of them party leaders and hangers-on. The President didn’t turn his back on Specter – Specter was a goner, his campaign was a failure, and there was no way Obama should have been expected to tie himself to that in the final agonizing days.

I’m sure you’re right – Obama likely did pressure national and state leaders to support Specter in return for his party switch. But ultimately, it was also part of the bargain that Specter would make a convincing case for himself with voters. He never did that. And maybe he never could, given the circumstances. But the failure can’t be pinned to Obama in any way. The failure is all Arlen’s.

As I said, Specter is now history. He is gone. And lingering on his attempts to hang onto power will just prolong the pain. Let it go, learn from it, and start working to win in the fall. Both the Governor and Senate races are there for the taking over the next six months.

Or we can whine about Obama.

To me, that’s a pretty easy choice to make.

David – Please don’t keep repeating something you know is not true. “The pros” most certainly did NOT get Sestak-Specter wrong – in fact, they were all pretty much right on the mark.

How can that be if their margins didn’t match the final outcome?

Easy – look at the Undecideds. Most final polls had Undecided in double digits, which gives an incredibly wide range of outcomes. Still, conventional wisdom (which almost certainly held true in this race) said that undecided voters would overwhelmingly choose Sestak.

And that’s exactly what happened.

Take a look at the final DK/Decision 2000:

Specter: 43; Sestak: 45; Undecided: 12
(would mean Undecideds broke 3-1 for Sestak)

Or the final Muhlenberg poll:
Specter: 44; Sestak: 44; Undecided: 11
(pretty much the same thing)

Or the final Quinnipiac:
Specter: 41; Sestak 42; Undecided 16
(again, a 3-1 break of Undecideds gives the final outcome)

So just stop trying to say that the outcome was a surprise. It wasn’t, and the polling should have told you what was going to happen.

Bill-
I considered the 7 counties of the southeast as “normal”: philly, bucks, chester, delco, montco, lancaster and lehigh.
Specter won this combined block. It was outside the SE region where Joe was less known that Specter was rejected.
Toomey’s got a $4-$5 million lead on Sestak and the GOP is hungry for a win. Obama’s poll numbers are down, especially in Western PA. The Philly doesn’t have a horse in the race, so they aren’t going to have big turnout.
I’m not saying that Sestak won’t or can’t win, but rather he’s going to have a tough time of it. The primary was a referendum against Specter, not as solid of an endorsement of Sestak, as you would like to believe.
Toomey vs. Sestak, I don’t think either deserves to be Senator, so I won’t be advocating for either one.

JP-
Sestak didn’t complain when Rendell and others pushed Lentz out of the race and played kingmaker. And Sestak wasn’t particularly interested in letting the people decide when he pushed VodVarka off the ballot. That’s the pot calling the kettle undemocratic.

Bruce-
What’s the point of State committee and the leadership if they aren’t going to make recommendations and decide where to allocate resources? Do you want to do away with the super-voters for the Presidential primary as well?
You seem to confuse analyzing how Obama will play among voters with “whining” about Obama.

The EAST-WEST dynamic is real.

Casey Jr. beat Santorum, but he neutralized Santorum on the pro-life issue. I’ve got a friend who votes straight Republican. But he’s an ardent pro-lifer and the only Dem vote he ever cast was for Bob Casey Sr. With an Allegheny pro-lifer like Onorato on the ballot, you aren’t going to excite Philly voters. The pro-life, pro-gun Dems that live out West, who are one or two issue voters, are going to view Toomey as an “alternative” to a liberal agenda.

Bruce-
8 points was WELL outside the 95% margin of error for all the polls you cites. So, even though they did suggest a Sestak win, they “got it wrong” because the outcome was off in the tail of their prediction.
For Q-poll, 95% of the probability was in the range: Sestak +4 to Sestak -2.
Sestak +8 was so far outside the range that it had less than 1% chance, according to the poll.
The Muhlenberg poll had it Sestak +5 to Sestak -5. With 2.5% in each tail, Sestak +8 was pretty far into the tail as well.

So, I stand by my statement that the pros “got it wrong”, because they missed the SIZE of the win.

That the undecideds would break 3-1 is an after-the-fact empirical observation by you. The pros didn’t predict the undecideds, even with leaners factored into the results.
Also, Specter won overall in SE PA. The margin was 60-40 in the rest of the state, beyond the size of the undecideds.
Bruce, face it, the voting was regional and a rejection of Specter outside of Philly.
Sestak has made the point himself, numerous times, that it was Specter’s low reelect numbers which made him feel he could win.

My point is that Sestak could win or lose to Toomey, but it’s a mistake to conclude that the defeat/rejection of Specter is an overwhelming endorsement of Sestak. My uncle is registered as a Dem in Philly but votes Republican (a DINO, like the RINOs in Delco). He loves George Bush, McCain and Palin, hates Obama, is pro-life, very religious, etc. He voted for Sestak, but there’s little chance he’s doing anything other than straight GOP in the fall. And he’s in Philly, not the West which hates Philly candidates.

David, another faulty piece of logic that needs correcting: Specter was rejected outside of Philadelphia, not SE PA. If you take the Philly results out of the SE PA equation, Sestak won every other county with a combined margin of about 42,000 votes.

You simply cannot spin Specter’s loss as an East-West verdict. Didn’t happen that way and won’t fit into that box any way you try to shove it.

No, David, the pros did not predict how the undecideds would vote. That’s why they were listed as Undecided.

But they did tell us they were out there. And that they would vote one way or the other.

Or did you think all the Undecideds would just stay home?

Oh Dave those supposed western Pa. Dems who are supposedly pro-life (who isn’t) and pro-gun, will look at Toomey and see the guy who helped Wall Street loot thier 401(k) destroyed thier hopes of retirement security all while making himself wealthy and looking out for the welfare of the top 1% of taxpayers.

Bruce-
Philly is like the size of two or three counties in the SE. Sestak had a 40-point blowout win in Delco, but Montco was within a few points. Overall, Specter won the region. I think regional politics played into Sestak’s win outside of the SE region.

In 1984, Reagan beat Monday in 49 out of 50 states, but he didn’t win 49 to 1 of the overall vote.
If you take Philly as a collection of 1684 precincts, and Delco and Montco each as 430 precincts, then you don’t get your “Specter won one thing” in the region.
Specter did much better in Montco, where people knew both candidates, than he did out West, where Sestak was less well know and Specter’s and Rendell’s SE regional affiliation was a deficit.

Actually, I expected the undecideds to vote for some of the other races on the ballot, but then either undervote the Senate race or split 50-50.

Bill-
I don’t think that Wall St. will trump gays, God, and guns, out West especially when Toomey ties Sestak to the Wall St. TARP bailout, the stimulus, health care and other spending. Even though Joe made the right votes, they are not viewed that way in Western PA. Toomey is going to use the bad job numbers to claim (falsely) that the money was wasted and Sestak is a big old tax and spend liberal with no fiscal discipline.
Of course the stimulus saved the country, but the job recovery might not be visible enough until after November.

It’s going to be a classic ideological battle, and “pro-life, pro-gun, anti-Obama” work toward Toomey’s advantage out West. The Philly machine that Sestak scorned is going to have a tough time overcoming that with the worsening turnout trends.

BUT, you know what? I’m enjoying watching you guys get cocky and overconfidence.
I don’t want Toomey, but I’m not going to shed a tear if Sestak loses. His victory speech was like arrogance on Red Bull and steroids, not a genuine call for unity. You guys are still sowing. The reaping comes in November.

What do you think the reaction will be when Sestak ties Toomey to the big casino that lost their retirements and sent the economy down the tubes. This pro=life,pro-gun anti Obama feeling you get is coming almost excusivly from republicans,I don’t think Joe expects to win the republicans over. the econ is getting better I think Toomey needs to win the support of moderate repubs (who have mostly left that party since 2000 in Pa.) and independents who won’t support a radical right wingers like him. His victory speech was well recieved by true democrats who rejected the party’s top down selection of Arlen to be our nominee. Sestak will have the full support of the democratic party in Nov. I have no doubt that the Phila. machine will be completely behind the Admiral come election day. Sestak by 12.

Bill-
The “true” democrats voted for Specter, because they were smart enough to look past the rhetoric. Please don’t claim you, or Joe, are a true Democrats.

If there is a big uptick in the economy Joe could win. But, without that, every Dem is going to be in trouble.

DD–I am a lifelong Democrat and can say I never voted for a Republican, including this past primary. As for “true” democrats all voting for Specter, guess there are not enough of them…but when you add Arlen’s votes to Joe’s, Toomey is toast! Anymore cheetos?

sick-
I’m a life long Dem too, who have never voted for a Republican. What else have you done.

As for adding Specter’s votes to Sestak’s?

1) Not every Dem that voted in May will vote for Sestak in November. (I can think of at least one vote that Specter got that Sestak won’t.)

2) The difference between total Dem and total GOP vote was only 230,000. About 2 million additional voters will show up in November. Over 230,000 of which will be independents associated with neither party.

Bruce, I agree with you on all points. All the pundits keep missing the key reason that Specter lost: the rank and file Dems across the state are sick and tired of the party elite doing the hand picking of people for state office. There is trouble brewing in the county committees across the state that are closely aligned with Rendell & Co. The rank and file are tired of the party elite and their anti-democratic ways.
The June meeting will be a lively one. People are tired of TJ Rooney, Rendell, and the PA & DC elites. It’s time for Rooney to go, he’s an elite who has been in that position way too long.

Jim Burn is a big time loser – watch this bullshit artist!

Dan’s first reason, “It’s the party stupid” more or less describes how I felt going to the polls last Tuesday. As a very young, but life long Democrat, I could not vote for a man that has been kicking the Democratic Party for the past 30 years.

@DD-I have done more for the Democratic Party with little to no fanfare than glory hounds like yourself who crave to be noticed and the center and focus of attention. I ma just happy to have my role and do my job advancing the party’s interests, anonymously, but very effectively. Keep playing with your atari set, tighten the tinfoil in your ears and everything will be alright.

sick-
Wow. That’s some serious BS you are slinging. But, (buzzer sound), sorry you lose.

You can’t claim to be some big-deal, anonymous benefactor, and hide behind a blog alias, and then expect to have any credibility (not that you had any before).

Staff and David D.

Great article and David D
I couldn’t have said it better !
My feeling is that the voters didn’t think about the fall and went with some guy that thy had no clue about. The voters have spoken and I do hope we don’t pay the price in the fall. !

Sestak is way too liberal. People forget that Specter was always endorsed by the NRA. Toomey will snag the support of gun owners now. PA typically likes GOP senators, notwithstanding Casey’s defeat Santorum. In a week, the polls will show the race even or Toomey slightly up, as Toomey is flexing his fundraising edge right now with a powerful ad highlighting just how far left SaysTax is.

C YA-
Sestak isn’t actually liberal at all. He just plays one on TV for votes.

Casey neutralized Santorum on the pro-life issue, which is a TOP priority for some one-issue voters, overriding all other concerns. For those dedicated pro-lifers, Toomey will be the only candidate in consideration.
I don’t know the number of these pro-lifers (in both parties) who will vote in November, but they are irretrievably in the Toomey camp.

Here’s what “the pro’s” know: Senator Specter never got above a 46 anywhere (internal, public, tracking). Incumbents who never break 50 can’t win. Undecideds break at least 2-1 against a well know incumbent; with almost double digit undecideds, the Senator never had a shot. Why do you think O blew him off?

Sestak there is something wrong about him like he has mental issues plus he comes off as a phoney