A compelling and well-reasoned argument, Adam. You have stated the case thoroughly and completely. I only hope that there are enough clear-thinking Democrats across PA who have also reached the same conclusion.

Not to be mean, but who the hell are you?

He’s obviously a Democrat who’s been blogging about this race for over a year, knows how to figure things out…and signs his own name to his opinions.

How about you, Mr. “NE Philly Union Guy”?

I am voting for Sestak but with deep reservations and little enthusiasm. I’m going with him for two reasons. One, Sestak has more room to maneuver in the middle in the general election. Two, Arlen Specter has been kicking the Democratic Party of Pennsylvania every 6 years for the past thirty. It is fitting that he will finally go down in defeat at our hands once and for all. Good riddance Snarlin’ Arlen. Enjoy retirement.

NE Philly Union Guy – he’s a columnist on this website.

Great article and reasoning.

Adam-
It’s “Whom can we trust?”
But, I have a larger point to disagree with you on.
First, Specter had been under enormous pressure by the GOP for many of “bad” votes. But, he also frequently overcame that pressure for core issues like a woman’s right to choose, minimum wage increases, stem-cell research, funding NIH, and of course the stimulus package. Without the GOP pressure pulling him, I think Specter can be a reasonable reliable Dem vote. Look how much arm twisting we have to do on those conservative Blue Dogs Dem, who are to the right of Specter.

Second of all, Toomey can’t “attack” Specter for being endorsed by Bush/Santorum.

Third, Toomey will have a hard time stealing Independents and capturing the middle from Specter, and Joe’s “I’m the real Democrat” doesn’t help him with Independents and moderates. In 2004, Specter beat Toomey by 17,000 within the GOP. Specter’s still can get many of the moderate Republicans turned off by Toomey, and Specter’s got the Dems behind him now.

Fourth, Joe’s got no message beyond “31-years in the Navy”. How many more months can Joe dodge questions about his record from reporters?

Fifth, do Joe’s “few” votes that you might “quibble” about include his two votes to give Bush a blank check on Iraq (without timetables), his vote to fund Cheney’s office, his support for warrantless wiretaps, and his vote for Telecom immunity?

Sixth, and this is really critical, Joe is going to exit the primary with a tremendous financial disadvantage relative to Toomey. Joe was able to capitalize on a lot of mistrust of Specter (even though that mistrust is based on the GOP dislike that Specter wasn’t a reliable Republican, which is pretty ironic).

Hopefully, Joe won’t win the primary and we won’t have to take a risk on his bigger unknowns.

NE philly Union Guy who the hell are you? Are you one of those union guys who voted for RR, republicans hate labor unions and their members,they rely on dupes like you to vote against their own interests. Arlen Specter is a 45 year member of the party of Union busting.

I know plenty of Union members who have been instructed to campaign for Specter, but will be casting their own vote for Sestak. The old establishment Democrat machine is no better than the Republican one and hopefully this primary will serve as a reminder. BTW, Sestak is the only concrete vote for EFCA, but that won’t stop SEIU, etc from falling in line for Specter. Why you do that?

Protest the Protest, dont give me that nonsense. The unions are with me. Just because rank and file voted for Joe Sestak when their union backed Curt Weldon doesnt mean they are going to vote for him now. And I am sure they are more than willing to continue to wait for me to even bother to lift a finger for EFCA. Dont you remember, I told them I would make sure it would pass, but I still have problems with the watered down language of the bill. In 5 years when I get back to this I am sure they will be thrilled with the even more watered down bill that I will purpose, which wont have any of the stuff they want, but it will be called EFCA.

Snarlin-
Don’t forget that Sestak was working on the watered down version of the bill behind the scenes while pretending to protest your support for the same proposal, since the original wasn’t getting past the Blue Dog Dems anyway.
Joe wants his cake and to eat it, too. I hope Joe loses and we can finally shut his double-talking pie-hole.

I keep coming back to this: The GOP wants to run against Sestak. They will paint him as a left-wing liberal (which he is not), and they will hammer him on whatever happened to him in the military that causes him to refuse to release his records.

Against Specter, Toomey’s only tactic is to say that Arlen is not conservative enough. That sure won’t win Toomey support from moderates.

There are lots of great arguments for each of our candidates: Sestak and Specter. I just want to support whomever will beat Toomey in November.

This really isn’t a surprise. Adam has been in the tank for Sestak for months and months now, and has done a poor job of disguising his bias towards him.

His last post “Hang a Lantern,” was campaign advice for his man.

I disagree with Adam, but I don’t think he’s “in the tank” for Sestak.

I do think he’s failing to recognize Sestak’s shortcomings, especially financial (and beyond).

Diano=”in the tank” for Specter!

As a suburban Philly mom…who left the Dem party this year due to Obama, Pelosi, and Reid’s fiscally irresponsible leadership…go ahead and vote for Sestak. It won’t matter in November. I doubt I could ever vote for a DEM until DNC returns from the FAR LEFT.

Watch the women vote in 2010! I doubt it will be the same as 2008!

Meg

Oh I see. So youve never had a problem with your government p*ssing away over $700 billion a year on our joke of a military that cant catch Osama bin Laden but you complain about spending $800 billion over ten years to reform health insurance and set up an insurance program for 30 million uninsured Americans? Right, I see. Makes sense. Go join a Tea Party.

A well-thought out piece, but I’m afraid it’ll probably be a moot point come November for three reasons:

1) Follow the pre-primary money: the GOP has outraised the Dems in all of the major and swing races in the state. As a measure of “voter pulse,” this is clearly not a good sign for Dems.

2) On the whole, Pennsylvania follows the national mood, which is presently anti-incumbent and anti-establishment. Pat Toomey represents both of thosequalities more than either Sestak or Specter. Massachusetts elected a Republican to replace Ted Kennedy – WHAT?

3) As crucial as it is, this is a midterm election, which means lower turnout, which means the bases matter most. Maybe the Dems won’t be as bruised as they would be if Specter were a lifelong party member, but it’ll still be nasty, especially given the arctic relationship between Sestak and the WH.

May 18 will be revealing, but it won’t be decisive. It was nice having a blue tripartite for a year or so, but I fear the curtain has already begun its descent.

I think we can all rely on Joe Sestak to continue to spend our money on the Military/Industrial Complex that has grown and GROWN. Well my vote goes to Specter–at least he is being honest and has been a moderate voice in the Senate. If we wanted a rubber stamp, we could just send a rubber stamp–vote Specter.

David Diano, how about watching your own grammar before pointing out others’ mistakes?

“Specter’s still can get many of the moderate Republicans turned off by Toomey, and Specter’s got the Dems behind him now.”

Specter’s still can?

I’m sorry, but you know your likability is low when Snarlin’ Arlen is the likable one!

“Attorney General Eric Holder a few moments ago was asked by Republican Rep. Darrell Issa if the Justice Department had appointed someone to look into whether the White House offered Rep. Joe Sestak a job in exchange for dropping out of the Senate race against Sen. Arlen Specter,” one news source revealed. So – PA Democrats should cast their ballots for a self-serving demagogue who makes unsubstantiated allegations against the incumbent Democratic President in an election year?! A demagogue who has knowingly put the incumbent Democratic President in jeopardy? A demagogue who made these baseless accusations at a critical juncture, when the Democratic President was desperately attempting to promote a much-needed health care reform package?!

Sestak’s actions are not those of a Democrat – they are those of a self-important megalomaniac who will go to any lengths to satisfy his already inflated ego.

Matt M –

1) Not much of a history student, are you? Up until two developments happened at roughly the same time — refinement of online grassroots fundraising and the polarizing Presidency of George W. Bush — Republicans always outraised Democrats at virtually every campaign level. That happens because Republicans tend to be richer than Democrats on an individual basis, and Republicans tend to attract a lot more support from business owners, well-funded advocacy groups and corporate PACs.

The election of 2008 probably was the high-water mark for Democratic net-roots fundraising, and with majorities in both houses of Congress plus the Presidency, the sense of urgency Democrats felt seems to be gone. But that urgency will be back with a passion once we get past this contested primary and are finally in a mano-a-mano battle with a truly symbolic wingnut in Pat Toomey.

Money is not going to be a problem in this election and Democratic & independent voters will be highly energized.

2) Pennsylvania does not elect radicals, and Pat Toomey is as radical as they come. Sestak’s success this fall will hinge on his campaign’s ability to make people understand how dangerous the real Toomey is.

Sestak is just finishing up a campaign that he will win because he showed voters who the Real Arlen Specter is. Now it’s time for him to do the exact same thing to Toomey.

3) And I’m pretty confident that once the dust settles after May 18, the White House and the state committee will be anxious to give Sestak all the love they would have given Arlen, just like everybody got in line to help Obama after he beat Hillary.

Joe has been very careful to tell anyone who asked that he’s planning to be President Obama’s Number 1 fan once he’s elected. Obama and the rest of the party will be there through November for Joe.

Bill Bailey —

Not much of a fan of arithmetic, are you?

1) Obama won the primary in 2008 because he had more money and, ergo, could mount a better grassroots operation. He also outspent John McCain by a factor of 2. Don’t get me wrong, he also had an outstanding and vastly superior message, but money makes all the difference.

2) Pennsylvania elected Rick Santorum in 1994 in an anti-incumbent fervor that swept the entire country. Harris Wofford was a fine candidate, but he didn’t stand a chance against a dissatisfied electorate that holds no firm party allegiances. Santorum, to borrow your parlance, was a nut that not even Nurse Ratchet would want to touch on the worst of days.

3) I’m willing to concede this point, but there are lot of wounds that will need to heal, and fast, which go all the way back to 2007/2008.