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What we’ve learned

Well time to put the soggy lawn signs away, console the losing candidates, and watch the TV crews pack off for warmer climates. A few lessons as another Pennsylvania primary passes into history/

1. The anti-incumbent mood—It’s almost a commonplace by now, but the elections confirmed that this an anti-incumbent year rather than a liberal or a conservative one. Arlen Specter lost to a candidate largely perceived as being to his left, while favored candidates in Kentucky and (earlier on) Massachusetts lost to challengers from their right. Since Democrats control most of the federal government, the mood still helps Republicans most of the time, but it can turn against them, as well.

2. The dubious role of endorsements—The support of party organizations helps in a relatively low-profile election, like congressional primaries. It doesn’t help, and may even hurt, in a high-profile race like the Sestak-Specter contest. The political influence of the national Democratic Party, as represented by President Obama and Gov. Ed Rendell Rendell, is especially low.

3. Watch where the wave carries you—The GOP has been relying on an anti-Obama wave to carry it to victory in the fall. Maybe it will, but the results in the 12th Congressional District and elsewhere suggest it is a perilous journey. Outside Pennsylvania, the Kentucky primary in particular raises the question whether the Republicans are moving so far right as to lose elections they might otherwise win. Waves can carry one to shore, but they can also swamp the boat or carry it to the wrong destination; one has to know how to ride them.

And with respect to the 12th District: I think the Democratic spin here is vastly overstated (see here and here for others who agree).   This is a district that hasn’t gone Republican in almost 40 years, and the voters appear to have seen it as a referendum on Jack Murtha, whom they like, rather than President Obama, whom they don’t. Nevertheless it shows the danger of relying on a simplistic anti-Obama appeal in races that voters perceive as local in nature.

As I’ve said before, Pennsylvania is a typical state—except when it isn’t.

May 21, 2010 at 12:15 pm

--Michael Livingston

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