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Welcome to Pennsylvania: Don’t get carried away

It’s a great time to write about Pennsylvania politics. National media focus on local congressional races. Joe Sestak vs. Arlen Specter is all over the networks. Even Gov. Ed Rendell’s comments on the Tea Party movement get coverage… and it isn’t even November.

With all that  happening, it’s hard to keep things in perspective. But here are a few things to keep in mind.

1. It’s very hard to predict national or even state trends from off-cycle elections. The 12th District special election, for example, might predict who takes the House in November. But it might not. Turnout will be affected by various factors, notably the Democratic Senate primary and the vagaries of local politics. It’s difficult to say.

2. Pennsylvania is a typical state—except when it isn’t. It tends to be more liberal fiscally, but less so culturally, than the rest of the country. Remember how Hillary Clinton clobbered Barack Obama in presidential primary, but lost the nomination?

3. A lot can change between now and November. Rendell’s rhetoric aside, the Tea Party still has a lot of momentum right now, and the Democrats are still on the defensive. Both these things  might, or might not, be true in the fall, let alone in 2012.

So enjoy the show, and don’t forget to vote. But don’t get carried away.

We’re  not a microcosm of anything here.

We’re simply Pennsylvania.

May 16, 2010 at 5:08 pm

--Michael Livingston

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