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Two surveys show Onorato up big in guv race

Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato has opened up at least a 20-point lead over his Democratic rivals for governor a week in the closing days before the primary election, according to two new polls.

The surveys released Wednesday echoed a body of polling data that has showed Onorato pulling away from the pack, and their results differed little from other recent polls. In a Quinnipiac University poll, Onorato garnered 38 percent of the vote, compared to 11 percent for Auditor General Jack Wagner, 10 percent for state Senator Anthony Williams and 9 percent for Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel. Almost a third of voters are still undecided.

And a Franklin & Marshall College survey found Onorato winning 27 percent of registered Democrats, a 22-point lead over his closest opponents. His edge was similar among a sample of likely primary voters, with whom he captures 34 percent of the vote, compared to 8 percent for Wagner, 6 percent for Williams and 5 percent for Hoeffel. Forty-four percent of likely voters are still undecided, according to the poll.

In both polls, Onorato performs about as well as he has in other public surveys, but Williams, who has been spending heavily on a statewide TV blitz, has lower numbers than in other recent polls. The Muhlenberg College tracking poll on Wednesday showed Williams winning 15 percent of the vote, and a recent Rasmussen poll had him at 17 percent.

Republican Tom Corbett holds a wide lead over Sam Rohrer in the GOP primary, both polls found. But the Franklin & Marshall survey found that almost half of likely primary voters were still undecided.

In the latest indication that Williams’ massive statewide advertising blitz isn’t having the effect his campaign might have hoped, 72 percent of likely primary voters still haven’t heard enough about him, according to the Quinnipiac poll. By contrast, only 44 percent say the same about Onorato, and the race is undoubtedly his to lose.

“Dan Onorato’s lead over the Democratic field hasn’t really grown over the past week, but with only seven days until the actual voting, his chances of winning the Democratic nomination for Governor certainly are better than the rest,” Quinnipiac’s assistant polling director Peter Brown said. “Although more than half of likely voters say they might change their mind, the odds that enough of them do, and all go to the same candidate other than Onorato seem very, very small.”

Click here to see the Quinnipiac poll.

Click here to see the Franklin & Marshall poll.

May 12, 2010 at 9:09 am

--Dan Hirschhorn

Tags: Anthony Williams, Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, Joe Hoeffel, Sam Rohrer, Tom Corbett

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