I think it’s time to put the “Sestak’s ads started too late” mantra to bed. I believe that the Campaign Group knew exactly what it was doing.

Too early, and people tune out. Or the excitement of upsetting the establishment wanes. Or the opposition hits on an effective counter-strategy.

Given Sestak’s bankroll and story they wanted to tell, I think they timed it just right. Even though most others here, for and against Sestak, have complained loud and long that this was the wrong way to go.

One other thing I’m pretty sure of: with less than two weeks to go, I don’t think the excitement is going to wane now.

Here, Here! Specter’s campaign tricks and attack ads try to disguise his real issue, his true voting record and his actual political beliefs. If Specter could have run on them, he would have… Instead he has to try and take a page out of his Republican playbook by smearing Sestak and slinging as much mud as possible. PA voters dont like it and PA voters see through it. If the establishment wants to put their stamp of approval on ads like that, congrats…that’s their choice…but the truth is I have just as much voting power in PA as Fast Eddie does…we each get one vote and mine (and yours) counts just as much as his does!

Vote for someone because they represent your interests, not because someone else tells you to. If you wouldn’t have voted for Arlen when he had and R next to his name, why would you vote for him now just because he switched parties? His track record is exactly the same as every year we went out and campaigned against him… So why should the endorsement of Boss Rendell change anything? Sestak closing the gap is just the start, Democrats in this State want someone who really represents them and their interests, not a career politician who only cares about his re-electability…

A week ago, it was unnerving, but in a 24 hour news cycle, a week is a lifetime and how things have changed. At this point, it comes down to this:

TV is doing its job in building Sestak’s recognition among the electorate, but the next step is turning out the vote. That can only be with a huge turnout of volunteer help. If you want the real Democratic candidate, Joe Sestak, to be the 2010 PA US Senate nominee, drop by any of the following Sestak campaign offices and volunteer for an hour (or even better a day, a week, or for the next 12 days.)

Ed Rendell and TJ Rooney think they know what’s best for us. Let them know the best way possible them that it’s our choice – volunteer to help nominate Joe Sestak!

Here’s where to go or call:

HQ – Delaware County
Office: Sestak For Senate
428 E. Baltimore Avenue
Media, PA 19063
Phone: (610) 891-8956
E-mail: info@JoeSestak.com

Philadelphia County

Office: 2013 Sansom Street
Philadelphia, PA 19103
Phone: (215) 352-6213
E-mail: info@JoeSestak.com

Allegheny County

Office: 4326 Butler Street
Pittsburgh, PA 15201
Phone: (412) 533-1200
E-mail: info@JoeSestak.com

Bucks County
Office: 573 North Main Street, Suite 107
Doylestown, PA 18901
Phone: (267) 337-6225
E-mail: info@JoeSestak.com

Centre County

Office: 224 South Allen Street
State College, PA 16801
Phone: (267) 728-4110
E-mail: info@JoeSestak.com

Dauphin County

Office: 105 Locust Street
Harrisburg, PA 17101
Phone: (717) 609-1392
E-mail: info@JoeSestak.com

Erie County

Office: 3409 State Street
Erie, PA 16508
Phone: (814) 746-4766
E-mail: info@JoeSestak.com

Lehigh Valley

Office: One E. Broad Street, Suite 130
Bethlehem, PA 18018
Phone: (484) 895-1649
E-mail: info@JoeSestak.com

Montgomery County

Office: 115 Yorktown Plaza
Elkins Park, PA 19027
Phone: (267) 622-4502
E-mail: info@JoeSestak.com

Mario Cimino
D – Morton Borough Council

FH-
I did vote for Arlen when he had an R next to his name and I will vote for him now. Specter has a long-standing history of helping people in this state.

It is Sestak who only represents himself and his own interest. He doesn’t give a rat’s #$@ about anyone else.

BTW, I’m still waiting for the little admiral to release his military record. But he won’t – because I’ve heard that there is a lot to hide in there.

Arlen Specter only cares about himself. Joe Sestak cares deeply about middle class families.

Adam’s right that Sestak started defining himself late. The blow back on Specter’s ads is more than I would have expected, but that’s more a question of Specter’s strategy, rather than Sestak’s.
However, the press hasn’t let this issue go away, and it still haunts the Sestak campaign.

Some Democrats are willing to throw the baby out with the bath water. Don’t be so eager to get Sestak and lose to Toomey.

See, I dont see it as throwing the baby out with the bathwater. I mean lets think logically about what happens if Arlen Specter wins against Sestak… Do PA voters even hear one single iota of actual debate on issues that matter to them? Nope, the campaign is going to be about the switch and not about issues. The right-wing tea partiers are gonna descend on this state to yell and scream at Arlen, and chief cheerleader is gonna be Toomey. Its gonna get ugly and its gonna get dirty and its gonna have nothing to do with real issues. Specter’s already shown that he doesnt have a real platform to stand on, or else he would be using that instead of speaking in platitudes about himself and attacking Sestak (which even David admits is causing a backlash).

How about a shot at beating Toomey? Not really gonna happen in my estimation. I mean do you really think one single Republican voter is gonna cast their lot in with Specter again? How about all those conservative leaning independents? Sure, Dems enjoy a voter registration edge in PA, but you’re gonna have to win them all over to fight against the storm of hate that will flock Specter’s way. He’s just not gonna win in a general election from where I sit. Any voter who ever gave money to him as a Republican is gonna be motivated to get out there and vote, and not only that, but get their neighbors to vote and their family to vote. They’re pissed off as hell and even if Arlen Specter could solve every problem in PA, they’d never vote for him.

With Sestak those independents are in play, they’ll be able to listen to the policies…I dont think anyone on this site (or at least this part of the site) will argue that when the issues are heard between a progressive agenda and Toomey’s Ultra-Right Wing trash, the progressive agenda doesnt win out every time. Its just a matter of which candidate can get people to listen, and Arlen just makes a majority of people just turn off and tune out.

FH

I agree with a lot of what you said here, I think you may have given Specter an easier road than he would have. Based on the most recent Gallup Poll on voter enthusiasm the GOP has a 10% edge (43-33). Specter would need a huge percentage of the I’s to win.

Bruce-

I still believe I’m correct about the mantra, but I definitely underestimated the strength of the distrust and dislike people have for Arlen. I think Joe could have made it much easier on himself and it still may prove to be a fatal error. For now, we’ll give it a rest and think positively. The latest Sestak ad is great.

Don’t want to get raked over the coals – but you should have seen the Delco Dems event tonight!
David Diano had a Sestak sticker plastered on his back, which generated quite a few chuckles.
Joe was running late – on his way from Philly to Delco, and will then be heading to Pittsburgh tonight.
Almost all attendees stayed to hear
Joe, who told a new story (tough with this crowd) and was cheered with a standing ovation at the end. The only guy with a bigger fan club in Delco is Lentz. Joe looks energized, and ready for the rest of this fortnight. I have a feeling he has a few more cards up his sleeve. (Or clips in the video archive.) Look for an upset in this primary!

FH-
Isn’t Sestak’s campaign about the “switch” and his claim that Arlen can’t be trusted? Isn’t Sestak’s campaign about “I was in the Navy for 31 years.”? Joe isn’t running on the issues. He’s running on his biography.

I’m not denying there’s been backlash, but the ad was still dead-on accurate. Sestak’s managed to whine and play the victim, and used old 2006 photos of his ill daughter to garner sympathy, but it’s still putting a fresh coat of paint on an empty warehouse and pretending it’s filled with something valuable.

FH, where you get your ideas about the motivations of Republicans that gave money to Specter? Specter gave back money to those “motivated” enough to ask. I don’t recall Sestak offering to give back money to his donors who believed their money was for keeping the seat in the 7th.

If Joe wins the primary, Lentz will have a tougher time winning the seat because Joe will take all the volunteers that would otherwise be available to Lentz. There are only so many volunteers in Delco, and Joe will monopolize them. Joe will drive up turnout, but he will target split-ticket Republicans who will vote for Joe, then the GOP for down-ticket races like Congress.

“Logically”, if Joe wins the primary, he’s slapped the faces of Obama, Biden, Rendell, the state committee, etc. You can BET that Republicans will pursue Sestak’s claim that the Obama WH offered him a bribe. Joe will have made NO friends in the party infrastructure, and they will likely devote their efforts to other candidates (like Governor, and St. Leg.) and leave Joe to fend for himself (aka throw him to the wolves).

FH, you are spouting a lot of supposed “wisdom” for a kid right out of college waiting to go into law school. I understand why you are remaining anonymous, so you don’t have to be accountable for your predictions.

Haverford Dem-
Specter always gets a huge percentage of the I’s. That’s how he’s won for 30 years. With Specter, they’re not “in play” as FH suggests, but rather “in the bag”.

George-
I you think Sestak cares “deeply” about middle class families (whose last name is not Sestak) then you should take a breathalyzer test before you post.

Lee-
It ain’t over til the Fat Lady sings. Don’t abandon your months of conviction about how badly prepared Joe is over a few poll numbers.

Diano,

The state party will do what it always does when it picks the wrong horse in the primary: they will tuck their tail between their legs and play ball (see Casey vs Rendell and Clinton vs Obama) with the winner in November. Oh, and I think Rendell and Obama each won in November too.

You are a one trick pony who is arrogant beyond imagination. For you to lecture and belittle others the way you do shows how pathetic you really are.

Joe is not perfect, and certainly his campaign isn’t. But neither is Arlen’s and I’m pretty good friends with some of his staff.

Independents are in no mood for incumbents. Don’t you read the news? The only “bag” they are in this year is a tea bag.

It’s too bad you had such a bad experience when you were associated with Sestak, but I think we all see you are a big mouth, arrogant punk. I’d fire you too. Or is the term “ask you to step aside?”

Joe Sestak has played this just right. He’s showing Specter to be a career politician who has been in office too long. Arlen’s not a specter, he’s a vampire.

David you can hold me accountable to every single one of my predictions…I’ll still be here from May 19th through to election day, so you can talk to me then…

First of all, just as the party elites eventually converged around Obama after he defeated Hillary, so too will they do after Sestak beats Specter. Where you say Sestak will have no friends in the party, I say Sestak will be beholden to no man or party. He can be free from the dirty backroom dealing that has plagued politics, and wont owe anything to anyone. If the party wants to close ranks and shoot themselves in the foot by not supporting him, thats their right, but believe me, if Sestak wins there’s gonna be a lot of establishment Dems looking to hitch their wagon to him.

Secondly, volunteers are just that, volunteers. If they wanted to go out for Brian Lentz, Sestak doesnt own them. But if theyre more energized for Sestak, well I can’t help you there, they’re allowed to have free will.

Thirdly, you never really addressed any of my “wisdom” other than to dismiss it because you are the great and powerful DIANO, and you make all decisions and know all! The charge isnt against Sestak about being offered something to drop out… so I dont see how Republicans keying into that would do anything other than show Sestak as a scrupulous and dedicated politician who would turn down an offer to advance himself on principle. The logic in my analysis is sound, deal with it instead of trying to delegitimize what I say by painting me as young. The election becomes solely a referendum on Specter and the party switch if he wins this primary… Toomey and the Republican leadership have their ads lined up for Specter, they’ve been previewing them for weeks on this site! Its all about the party switch, its all about ‘benedict arlen’, and none of it have anything to do with real Pennsylvanians. Sestak has a chance to beat Toomey. He’s proven he can take out a 20 year Republican incumbent and not only convince independent voters to go his way, but Republicans as well. Specter has proven that he can switch parties to avoid having to take on Pat Toomey (before he even knew what the Tea Party was or why he would become their target numero uno)…oh wait a second…

rplinpa
See Casey in the 2006 primary. They picked the guy that could beat Santorum.
Obama won Delaware county. If he wasn’t black, the state party might have picked him over Hillary.

It’s pretty arrogant of you to criticize me from behind an alias. I’ve been in the disinfecting sunshine all this time. Come clean.

However, when it comes to arrogance, NOBODY beats Joe on that score.

I read the news. Probably a lot more than you do. Read about how “Republican Voter Enthusiasm Advantage Halved In Past Month: Gallup”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/05/06/republican-voter-enthusia_n_565793.html

Specter knows how to appeal to Independents. He’s the only one who can expose Toomey as worse than Santorum and capture that middle.

I was neither “fired”, “asked to step aside” nor anything remotely similar. I had a day-job so had no interest in the day-to-day workings. Once they staffed up, I told them they had to get an on-site tech person to maintain the office computers because I couldn’t run over to the office and miss work whenever Joe called me because his laptop wouldn’t print (one time it was a bad Ethernet cable).

Captain America-
Joe doesn’t have your starred-shield.

FH-
I’d like to hold you accountable now. Put your name where your mouth is. I have.
Sestak owes plenty to the Delco Dems and never repaid it. So him “owing” people doesn’t really carry a lot of weight. And, btw, Sestak’s preferred mode of operation is behind the scenes.

Hogging and poaching volunteers, while pretending you are going to help the party and all the candidates doesn’t help the rest of the ticket. The military is about “leave no man behind”, but politically, Sestak’s motto has been to leave everyone behind. He’s got ZERO appreciation for what it means to be a united party. He thinks it only means united behind him.

If Sestak was scrupulous, he would have been obligated to report the bribery attempt when he alleges it occurred. There is no “principle” here. So, there is a charge against him too for not reporting it. As for the alleged offer, my guess is that it wasn’t big enough, or he would have taken it.

Did it ever occur to you that Toomey expects to go up against Specter, but is hoping to go up against Sestak? Sestak is just a means for Toomey to drain money from Specter.

Specter made that Stimulus vote, and the Republicans decided they had enough of his non-conservative ways. Toomey wasn’t even in the Senate race until Specter made that vote.
Joe wasn’t 8 points behind Weldon 2 weeks out. It wasn’t a primary. And Sestak brought out those split-ticket Republicans to vote for him, and the GOP State Rep candidates.

Joe still has to get past Arlen for a shot at Toomey.

So, who are you the not-great and not-powerful Fat Ho? I’ve already dismantled your so-called “logic”. But, your lack of legitimacy is from your anonymity.

For all we know, you could be a Republican operative working on Toomey’s campaign trying to promote Sestak.

Without a real name behind your postings, your flawed arguments lack context.

Dave-

It’s hardly a “conviction”. It has nothing to do with principle. It’s my opinion. Even if I am correct about how he could have run a better campaign, it doesn’t mean a thing if Sestak is successful on May 18th, as it seems he has a good chance to be. Sometimes the better candidiate overcomes a less than pefect campaign strategy. And I clearly underestimated how much people (regular people who aren’t poitical activists) dislike and distrust Specter. Hope you didn’t bet the farm on Arlen.

David-

Why cant you ever deal with issues? Why does Sestak owe anything to any specific candidate in Delco…because you say he does? He’s not beholden to you or anyone else specifically because the establishment has time and again thumbed their noses at him…so why would you ever expect him to help the establishment. You’re a sore loser who cant debate issues. Oh and Sestak tied with Specter in the latest Muhlenberg poll…better start reworking your sine graph!

HaverfordDemocrat wrote:

“Based on the most recent Gallup Poll on voter enthusiasm the GOP has a 10% edge (43-33). Specter would need a huge percentage of the I’s to win.”

Ugh – the stereotypical old-school glass-half-empty sky-is-falling inferiority complex Delco Democrat. You’ve conveniently forgotten the 1.2 million – no that’s not a misprint – 1.2 million advantage in Democratic voter registration in Pennsylvania.

And somehow I’ve ended up defending Specter here. I’ll admit that myself before Diano jumps on me for it.

Mario Cimino
D – Morton Borough Council

Dave, using the Huffington Post to dissect Republican Voting Prospects is akin to having Barney Frank evaluate the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit issue. There is no validity in either.