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Suffolk poll shows Onorato, Sestak with largest leads so far
Democratic Senate candidate Joe Sestak holds a nine-point lead over incumbent Arlen Specter in Tuesday’s primary, according to a new poll. The survey from Suffolk University also showed Democrat Dan Onorato holding a larger lead over his gubernatorial primary opponents than any other public poll has shown to date.
The survey of 400 likely primary voters showed Sestak topping Specter 49 percent to 40 percent, with 12 percent undecided. It found Onorato garnering 46 percent of the vote, followed by Anthony Williams at 13 percent, Jack Wagner at 9 percent and Joe Hoeffel at 8 percent. Other public polls have shown Sestak and Onorato in front, but not by margins as wide as Suffolk’s findings.
The poll, conducted May 11 to May 13, had a margin of error of 4.9 percent.
May 13, 2010 at 1:51 pm
Tags: Anthony Williams, Arlen Specter, Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, Joe Hoeffel, Joe Sestak













bill healy
May 13th, 2010
Nothing builds momentum like momentum Go Joe. Arlen you know where you can go too, down the shore to your home on LBI.
David Diano
May 13th, 2010
This poll has a clear example of how Sestak has damaged the PA Democratic party:
Divided Loyalties
Only 50 percent of Specter voters said they would support Sestak in the November General Election; while 6 percent said they would support the Republican; 5 percent will vote for one of the independents; 4 percent said they will not vote; and 34 percent were undecided.
Sestak voters were even less loyal. Forty-five percent of Sestak voters planned to vote for Specter if he were the nominee; while 14 percent would vote for the Republican; 9 percent would choose one of the independents; 5 percent will not vote; and 28 percent were undecided.
This contrasts sharply with the Suffolk University Ohio Primary poll, which showed that at least 70 percent of supporters for either Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate would support the Democratic nominee in November against the Republican.
“This finding is even more powerful given that, unlike Ohio, the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary is closed and only allows registered Democrats to cast Democratic ballots,” said Paleologos.
BLB
May 13th, 2010
Dave,
You’re totally clueless if you think an unopposed politician in an election is good for democracy. Let the voters decide who they want to represent them in their party and D.C.
bill healy
May 13th, 2010
Dave it’s not a matter of disloyalty the party tried to ram the 80 year old 45 year republican down out throats,rank and file Democrats want no part of it. Let fast Eddie and TJ Rooney vote for this turd I won’t ever under any circumstances. The only difference between Arlen and Toomey is that Toomey is at least honest about what he is a shill for the republican agenda.
David Diano
May 13th, 2010
BLB-
You are clueless if you think a divisive primary like this is the best thing for winning the General.
$10 million has been wasted and is not available to attack Toomey.
Sestak has played into Toomey’s hands.
By going for Sestak, they are effectively deciding to sent Toomey to D.C.
bill healy
May 13th, 2010
Dave thinks we should all vote for Arlen because he has a personal beef with the only Democrat in the race Joe Sestak. Take everything he posts with a huge grain of salt.
bill healy
May 13th, 2010
For all the talk Dave and Hated do about how the party establishment supports Arlen that same party establihment doesn’t seem to be campaigning to hard for him do they. His support in the party is about a yard wide and an inch thick.
bill healy
May 13th, 2010
GTG Off to give Joe a few more hours of my labor.
JoeMontco
May 13th, 2010
The Campaign Group does it again. This approaches their victory in the 2007 Philadelphia Mayoral Primary. They hold their fire until the last minute, and then blast the opponent out of the water.
The winner of this primary wins the general. Pennsylvania will never elect Toomey statewide.
Bill C.
May 13th, 2010
The Toomey camp is loving this. Every dollar Sestak forces the DSCC waste on defending this seat in this needless primary is another earning interest for Toomey in the bank. Sestak’s also an incumbent “in the clutches of Pelosi,” and don’t think for a moment that Toomey won’t use that against him.
If Sestak wins the primary, Toomey will defeat him (although it may be close) in the general election, the only benefit of which will be that the Don of Delco will lose his crown and will take his posse family with him to the wilds of political obscurity.
Matt M.
May 13th, 2010
400 voters? Out of how many registered Democrats?
As far as sample sizes and basic statistics go, I’d be highly suspicious of taking any of these polls to deeply to heart. Suffice it to say it’s close and the game-changer will be turnout.
Jim F
May 13th, 2010
Diano=Delusional
TheMortonMagician
May 13th, 2010
David:
Sestak beat the “unbeatable” Weldon. Now he’s poised to beat the “unbeatable” Specter. If he does, what exactly is your argument that he can’t beat Toomey, the right-wingnut fatcat-apologist with little name recognition outside northeast PA, the Club for Greed boardroom, and the tinfoil hat convention?
Mario Cimino
D – Morton Borough Council
HateSestak
May 13th, 2010
Jim F: If Mr. Diano is delusional as you claim, why are you investing considerable time and effort trying to deter him? You actions are contrary to logic – the hallmark of a Sestak flunkey (and, of course, Sestak himself).
HateSestak
May 13th, 2010
Matt M: Again, sound observations on your part. 400 prospective voters is indeed a small sample, and this certainly raises questions about the legitimacy of the poll in question.
HateSestak
May 13th, 2010
Cimino: Sestak prevailed in 2006 becuase of the timely intervention of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) during the latter stages of the campaign. Unfortunately for Sestak, the FBI is targeting another incumbent congressman now…
Lee Levan
May 13th, 2010
David, David, David-
How soon you forget, or is it selective memory?
How can anyone forget the doomsayers who were adament that Hillary’s supporters would never vote for Obama in the general election? Well, we all know how that turned out, don’t we?
Are you claiming that Specter, or Specter’s supporters, are less loyal Democrats or progressives than Hillary or hers were? Dems are famous for pulling together after a hard fought primary fight. A poll on that subject now is completely meaningless.
Jim F
May 13th, 2010
Diano=HateSestak (alias)
David Diano
May 13th, 2010
Mario-
1) Sestak was able to match Weldon dollar for dollar. That is isn’t the case here. Toomey raised $1 million last month (twice the combined Specter + Sestak) and Sestak will have a $4 million deficit relative to Toomey at the end of the primary.
2) 2006 was a Dem “take-back Congress” year. The wind was at Joe’s back, and he was running with Rendell and Casey ticket against Lynn Swann and Santorum. Rendell won by 20 points. Casey won by 17.4 points.
3) There was a lot of Weldon fatigue and anti-Iraq War sentiment. That year it was “any Dem will do” for a vote if they looked viable.
4) Joe was able to effectively lie about his objections and opposition to Iraq, before his support wasn’t revealed until he got in office and voted twice to give Bush a blank check.
5) Weldon’s offices got raided by the FBI just before the election.
None of those factors (a perfect storm for Sestak) are in play here.
Mario, why do you think that Club for Growth and GOP advocate and cash cow Richard Mellon Scaife gave the Max $4,800 endorsement to both Sestak and Toomey?
Matt-
Good catch on the 400 being Dem and Republicans. So the margin of error is probably double for the Dem primary stats.
HateSestak
May 13th, 2010
“Attorney General Eric Holder a few moments ago was asked by Republican Rep. Darrell Issa if the Justice Department had appointed someone to look into whether the White House offered Rep. Joe Sestak a job in exchange for dropping out of the Senate race against Sen. Arlen Specter,” a news source disclosed earlier. Holder refused to answer. “It is the Department’s policy not to comment on pending matters to say there is or isn’t an investigation,” Holder said. “That is not what we do. And that’s the way I can answer the question.”
Joe Sestak – loyal, ardent Democrat? Obviously not. A loyal, ardent Democrat would not make unsubstantiated allegations against the incumbent Democratic President of the United States, inviting GOP scrutiny and calls for inquiries. But a self-interested, self-admiring, narcissistic demagogue masquerading as a Democrat would.
BLB
May 13th, 2010
Dave,
Remember that divisive Democratic primary in 2008? Oh, yeah… that worked out OK for Democrats in November.
David Diano
May 14th, 2010
BLB-
That was with two completely stellar candidates. Here we have two “cellar” candidates.
Voter registration for the first 5 months of 2010 is LESS than the voter registration for the first 5 months of 2009.
Unlike Obama/Clinton there hasn’t been a massive effort to built the party, and get the resulting benefits.
Dem Voter
May 14th, 2010
All Sestak has done is waste good money that should have spent defeating Toomey. If Sestak wins the primary, Toomey will blow Sestak out of the water. I’ve spoken with a few Toomey campaign staffers and they’re praying that Sestak wins.
Toomey’s people know that they can crush Sestak in the general election. It’s Specter that they’re worried about. That would be a tough race.
Clearly, Specter is our best bet to beat Toomey!
Bruce Bailey
May 14th, 2010
Dem Voter — Your lies and propaganda just don’t cut it. You need to get rid of that old claptrap and come up with something new(“old claptrap” does not mean Arlen…I’m talking about your tired prose).
Sestak runs better against Toomey and beats him by a much more decisive margin in November. Arlen Specter can’t even remember what party he belongs to, and if he is the candidate this fall many Democrats will simply sit on their hands instead of helping, and a good percentage will not even be motivated to vote. We can’t afford that.
By the time we get to Labor Day with Joe Sestak as our candidate, the money will be pouring in and there will be plenty of funds to run a fully competitive battle.
TB
May 14th, 2010
Toomey’s people are too busy watching their stocks on the DOW and NASDAQ to be concerned about the Democratic primary.
Anyone who believes that this primary will fracture the Democratic Party come November has a very short term memory. In March and April 2008 Hillary supporters were saying that Pennsylvania would not be reliably Democrat if Obama was the nominee. Obama won Pennsylvania 55% to 44%. If the divisive Pennsylvania primary between Hillary and Obama had one effect on the general it was to remind Democrats that either Democrat was a far superior candidate than the Republican.
Democratic Primary voters in Pennsylvania will not jump ship, or sit out the general if their horse loses the primary. They know the price of defeat come November . . . A radical Republican named Pat Toomey that believes in supply side economics, tax cuts for the wealthy, disdain for minorities, the under privileged, and other vulnerable citizens of our Commonwealth.
Notsure
May 14th, 2010
the only poll that matters this close to the election is the polling place and the voters,
Give your mouths a rest and gotv for your candidates.
PS all of this blog vitrol will creep out the voters -so put on your big girl faces and try and be nice to strangers.
Bruce Bailey
May 14th, 2010
Notsure – Only partisans and war correspondents hang out here. Most voters wouldn’t know what to make of it.