Dan-
When Sestak was +5 in Muhlenberg poll, it was the headline.
I would think: Sestak slips by 7 in Muhlenberg would be an appropriate headline to balance the trumpet sound of Sestak’s previous +5.
Just looking for a little “Fair and Balanced” on the headlines.

At least say: Polls split on Specter/Sestak.

But to tout the Sestak +2 without acknowledging the slip in the other…. eh?

Dave, does it really matter who wins in the Dem Primary? Incumbency is out of favor, Liberalism is out of favor, Inside DC Beltway is out of favor. But Dave, YOU are still in favor with me as my Favorite Liberal Lefty on our Beloved PA 2010.

Put all the polls together and what do you get? A race too close to call. We’ll find out Tuesday night (and maybe even Wednesday morning) who won.

Put all the polls together and you get the RCP average, which shoes Sestak up by 3 points.

DD–thought you said the Muhlenberg was suspect anyway and were waiting for the Daily KOS poll to set us all straight…oh well…the Citizens Voice in NEPA has endorsed Sestak. The link is below:
http://citizensvoice.com/news/election/endorsement-joe-sestak-1.786874

haverforddemocrat-
If you’d come out from hiding, I might lay a little math and education on you.

RCP incorrectly averaged the polls without weighting it by the size of the poll. They average a 150 LV poll with a 900-LV poll.
So, they effectively make the F&M and Quinnipiac polls “cancel” each other.

It doesn’t work that way.

Sick-
Daily KOS should the poll a statistical Dead heat. The Muhlenberg poll has already slid back 7 points.

From a polling perspective, the race is pretty much 50/50 and within the margin of error. However the polling does not take into account the ground game, where Specter has the advantage.

No worries, Matey!

Ultimately, turnout in the major urban areas will determine the outcome. And Specter has a solid hold on the major urban areas. These polls (with their very small statewide samplings) do not reflect this. Specter is going to win, and he’s going to win easily.

CD – I think it was Satchel Paige who quipped “Sayin’ it don’t make it so.” You should take that one to heart.

And Specter should have remembered another gem from Satchel: “Don’t look back, somebody may be gainin’ on you.”

Specter’s fatal mistake was that he led off his ad campaign with a huge smear. And the smear backfired terribly – Democratic voters didn’t like it, and it also served to alert many Dems about Sestak’s amazing 31-year service record. Lesson for future campaigns: if voters don’t know your opponent, don’t introduce them to him.

Muhlenberg suggests that Senator Specter has recaptured the lead, this poll indicates otherwise. Unfortunately for Representative Sestak, these polls (with their limited samplings)are insignificant. What is paramount on primary day is who commands support in Pennsylvania’s two major urban centers, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. This will invariably determine the outcome. Why do you think Sestak is becoming reacquainted with the city of Philadelphia today? Senator Specter has an overwhelming advantage in these two pivotal urban centers. The two most notable newspapers in these two urban centers (The Philadelphia Inquirer and The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette) enthusiastically endorsed the Senator, as did every influential public figure in these two urban areas. Specter’s victory is all but assured.

HateSestak, I agree. The poll showing Specter up by two was *slightly* larger than the poll showing Sestak ahead, but both are still using extremely small sample sizes. These numbers say it’s tied, but that’s really not conclusive.

The message is turnout, turnout, turnout. Specter has a reputation and a sophisticated ground operation that’s been in place for years, and has defeated every challenger from this area who’s gone against him (Yeakel, Hoeffel, etc.). We’ll just have to see on Tues. night.

There seems to be a consensus building on both sides that the outcome of the Specter-Sestak race will depend on the ground game, particularly in Philadelphia.

However, the blind assumption that the turnout machine will work there for Specter is very shortsighted.

First, lets look at the Ward Leader-based Democratic turnout machine in Philadelphia. Old fashioned neighborhood machine politics is extinct in most other places, and there is there is more rot within the Philly machine than anyone is willing to admit. The most glaring case was Congressman Bob Brady’s failed mayoral primary campaign in 2007. Non-local observers may recognize Brady as the guy PA Dem Chairman TJ Rooney touted yesterday as holding the keys to a Specter victory via his Philadelphia machine. However, when the machine was supposed to deliver the mayoral nomination to Brady himself, it failed miserably and a “brash upstart” (Sound familiar?) named Michael Nutter ran away with the nomination instead. A repeat of that failure on Tuesday will really create an “emperor has no clothes” situation for the Philadelphia Dem Machine, hence the near-hysterical fear emanating from the top Phila and PA Dem establishment leaders.

Compounding this problem for Specter, I’m sure he does indeed have his own formidable ground machine, but that was honed for winning a General Election on the GOP ballot line, most recently in 2004. That is a very different universe than a Democratic primary electorate in 2010.

Finally, Philadelphia Democratic politics are heavily tied to the building trade unions in the city. Most locals have lined up with Specter, but with some significant politically-potent exceptions who will be working for Sestak, including IBEW Local 98, Ironworkers Local 401, and the Bricklayers.

How this will all add up it far from clear, but in a year and a race when the electorate is already very much in flux, depending on the Philadelphia Democratic machine that couldn’t save their leader Brady in 2007 to singlehandedly save the 45-year-GOP-pol-turned-Johnny-come-lately-Democratic-ally Specter is probably desperate wishful thinking at this point.

Mario Cimino
D – Morton Borough Council

Correction:

Sestak apparently has the IBEW national or another Local, but not 98.

Joe Biden just said this: “Have you met anyone in the world who said Arlen Specter yielded under pressure? Have you ever heard that? Never. Never. Never.”

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hRLeivXVE_840fD7Tlr0coHPlE1QD9FMQJ100

Well, actually Mr. Vice President..yes. How about CNN’s Jack Cafferty, after Specter promised to hold hearings on government wiretapping in 2006 and then renegged when the Bush Administration put pressure on him:

“In the end, Senator Specter has turned out to be yet another gutless Republican worm cowering in the face of pressure from the administration and fellow Republicans. There are not going to be any hearings. Americans won’t find out if their privacy is being illegally invaded.

“You know what the Senate Judiciary Committee settled for instead? Senator Orrin Hatch said he has won assurances from Vice President Dick Cheney that the White House will review proposed changes to the law that would restrict certain aspects of the NSA program.

“Dick Cheney is going to decide if it’s OK to spy on American citizens without a warrant. And this worthless bunch of senators has agreed to let him do it. It’s a disgrace.”

Diano=In need of therapy!

As to Specter yielding under pressure…we are here because of that…he failed as a republican..yielded to pressure…left that party and is trying to ruin the democratic party.

I guess I don’t really care anymore about the polls … it WILL come down to a) whose voters turnout on Tuesday and b) the integrity of the voting process. The polls are so close now that it could easily go either way.

What I do care about, to the point of being utterly sick of, is the Dem establishment rolling over for the guy who put the current extreme activist right wing nutjob Supreme Court together. Specter is a conservative at heart and if he succeeds on Tuesday, the betrayal of the left by the Democratic party will hurt the party for a very long time, AT LEAST in the critical state of PA, if not more widely. So Specter not only keeps his job but gets what he really wants anyway – harming the democratic party. And even if Sestak wins, it will take a while (and a few leadership replacements) to heal the wounds.

I think that’s the real reason Specter switched.

But I have faith in the Democratic voters of PA – I’ve been talking to a lot lately, and finding a lot more who are as disgusted with Specter as I am, than supporting him. If those people show up on Tuesday, Specter is toast.

Now I am beginng to think Arlen is going to do cameos on TRUE BLOOD.

We Will finally be rid of the US Senator who never ever washes his Hair when he has hair that is Specter is soooooooooooooooo Gross His Hair needs an Oil Change so does his skin Specter have you ever heard of Soap and Shampoo they are new Inventions They Get That Oil slick off of your Hair Bye Bye Arlen you have taken advantage of the Good people of Pennsylvania for far to long Its time for you to GO away and be put out to pasture and it is going to happen This Coming Tuesday You never even tried to bring the Bacon home to US in Pennsylvania

Mario-
You make a rational argument. (There I said it.)

However, I don’t think this race is analogous. Specter is the endorsed candidate on the ballots. Specter has deep roots in Philly, and Sestak is a bit of an outsider. Both candidates are the same race. The one black governor candidate in the governor’s race is from Philly and likely to increase Philly turnout to Specter’s inadvertent/indirect advantage.

I think Specter has the edge on ground game. The people supporting Specter (both Nutter and Brady combined with Rendell) know how to do a ground operation. The rest of the state isn’t like the 7th CD. Even when you payoff people with street money, you need the experience to know which ones deliver, and which ones pocket the money and do nothing, support the other candidate or collect from both candidates.

Mario, there’s not a lot of Joe worship outside of Delco. That’s why Joe’s got to ship you guys out for events.

How many people from Delco can you spot in this Philly photo?
http://joesestak.ning.com/photo/mothers-day-rally-in-philly-32?context=user

Oh, look, Mario…here you are at that “Obama supporters for Sestak rally”
http://joesestak.ning.com/photo/obama-supporters-for-sestak-9?context=user

(I recognize Abu standing behind you)
Bill Healy took the pictures. And his wife Gail can be seen in one from a different angle.

How many Delco people are at these events, instead of actual locals?

Mario-
Tonight’s Rendell rally for Specter is at the IBEW hall.

Jim F: As mentioned previously, if Mr. Diano is truly deranged, it is unlikely that you and other Sestak flunkeys would commit so much time in a futile effort to deter him. You are attempting to deter him because his arguments are compelling, not because his arguments are invalid. Of course, you already knew that.

Specter Must Go: And you want to supplant Senator Specter with Representative Sestak, a charlatan would lodged baseless allegations against the incumbent Democratic President of the United States at the height of the nation’s health care debate (allegations he refuses to substantiate), pays his staff below minimum wage, and was endorsed by an ex-congressman (Eric Massa) who fondled the genitals of his male comrades in the Navy? Sestak, obviously, would be an embarrassment to the Democratic Party, and would be trounced by Toomey. Toomey would demand that Sestak corroborate his unfounded accusations against the White House, stirring a controversy that would only undermine the Democratic Party. Toomey would denounce Sestak’s hypocrisy – i.e., purporting to be a progressive while simultaneously paying his staff below miminum wage. Eric Massa boasted that he served in the Navy with Sestak. Toomey would pose the question of whether Sestak was aware of Massa’s illicit conduct. And Toomey would call for Sestak to disclose his military records, something Sestak is apparently reluctant to do. In sum, if Sestak were the Democratic nominee, his defeat in the fall would be all but certain.

SPECTER IS DISMISSED: Senator Specter has been enthusiastically endorsed by every major newspaper in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (The Philadelphia Inquirer, The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, The Patriot-News, etc., etc.), every major Democratic office-holder in PA, and every key Democratic interest group in PA. Apparently, rational people do not attach much importance to how a candidate grooms his/her hair.

David Diano – if Sestak wins the primary that means all your b.s. attacks didn’t work for Specter, and they won’t work for Toomey either. The Obama thing – too inside baseball; staff pay, no one cares or if they do, they’re happy to have a ‘fiscally responsible’ guy to vote for; Massa – another no one cares; miltary records – Toomey already forfeited that card, he berated Specter for that line of attack. Guess you weren’t paying attention.

I should add, all those attacks Diano mentions are complete b.s. anyway.

(just saw specter’s “just another politician” ad again. I LMAO whenever I see that … everyone I know thinks that’s just a pot/kettle thing. It reminds them what an opportunist Specter is. Talk about hypocrisy.)

suburban dem: As mentioned previously, the outcome of this primary hinges on the two major urban centers in the Commonwealth of PA. And Senator Specter has an unbreakable stranglehold on these two crucially important urban centers. The overemphasis on insignificant polls with neglible samples has truly been laughable (to a social scientist like myself, that is). These polls reflect the attitudes of a (very, very) limited number of people from across the state; unfortunately for Sestak, most Democratic primary voters are heavily concentrated in the two all-important urban areas. And Sestak has made no inroads in these areas in terms of newspaper endorsements, the support of popular public officials and interest groups, etc.

In sum, whether some ill-informed primary voter in Lock Haven, PA voices support for Sestak in a poll is of no consequence. It is what primary voters in the two critical urban centers think that is paramount. And primary voters in these heavily populated urban centers overwhelmingly support Senator Specter. The outcome has never truly been in doubt, folks. And Sestak knows it.

Bruce – It pains me to see Joe Biden’s gleaming pearly whites in the service of such a rotten cause!

Mario Cimino
D – Morton Borough Council

Dave, when you mention the “Ground Game” we all know it means the criminality, especially by the Democratic Ward Leaders from the city, that will occur. However, I do like your attempt to sanatize that activity.

95 South,

I suppose you feel it’s less criminal for a man to present himself as the representative of an entire district in the U.S. Congress, while not even maintaining a domicile in that district, where his WIFE allowed her registration to drop?

Such an action is an affront to our entire concept of REPRESENTATIVE government. But I suppose you Sestak loyalists have ingested so much cool aid you can’t separate day from night, right from wrong, black from white anymore.

I used to be one of you. I love Delaware County, and I care about its future. The Sestaks are a mafioso team whose long-term goals serve only their own interests.

Actually, George, even if what you said is true, it’s not against the law, and most voters don’t care about those things, IF the representative DOES represent their issues. (which Sestak hss done very well, that is why he cake-walked to re-election in 2008) It’s called self-interest.

Anyway since it’s not illegal AND what 95 South refers to actually IS illegal, yes the ward leader corruption would be ‘more criminal’ by definition.

Specter Must Go: Specter, a newcomer to the Democratic Party, had to exercise some measure of restraint during this primary. Making references to the Eric Massa debacle, for example, was an impossibility for Specter, inasmuch as Massa was a Democratic congressman. Toomey would not have to reckon with such constraints. He would lambaste Sestak on this – no question. The only other major political endorsement that Sestak recieved was from congressman Barney Frank. Frank (whom I have the utmost respect for) was chastised by the House Ethics Committee when it was discovered that his male lover was operating a prostituion ring in the apartment they shared. Imagine a Toomey ad focusing solely on Sestak’s allies. His two key supporters in Congress were both embroiled in embarrasing sex scandals involving other men! I am not condoning the possible use of such deplorable tactics; I merely forewarning you that they likely will be employed by Toomey. Such tactics undoubtedly would galvanize the GOP base in PA.

Dave, I am always amazed by your injecting Sestak’s family into the debate. And Dave, by the way, I AM NOT A DEM. So unless you are saying that you used to be a “R”, I do not understand. Please do not forget, I am all in for Pat Toomey Finally, illegal election practices may be rationalized by you folks on the left, but the criminal activity that occurs, every election day within the city, is overlooked, and applauded. The Black Panthers physically intimated voters, and got away with it. Each Election Day in the Largest City in the Commonwealth becomes a Banana Republic.

George Brendt: “Mafioso team,” indeed. And the FBI has enjoyed tremendous success with respect to the mafia in recent decades…

Specter Must Go:

I suppose you would endorse the practice, dating back to Reconstruction, of mendacious parties reaping the rewards of political opportunities. As a lifelong member of an esteemed community, I truly abhor such a practice and have absolutely no desire to see it perpetuated in my hometown.

This man is, as HS and DD have aptly pointed out with abundant FACTUAL content, a charlatan. If you’re going to represent me and my community in my national legislature, be a PART OF my community. Send your children to school with my children. Vote in the same local elections as I vote. Don’t call yourself my advocate but call your true home three states and countless zipcodes away.

Specter is not perfect. I give you that. But he has always looked out for the people of this state. Joe Sestak can’t even hope to add that to his paltry and inflated list of credentials.

95,

Sestak’s family incorporated THEMSELVES into this debate. They perpetuate the myth that he resides in Delaware County. They account for 40%+ of his campaign payroll. Because Sestak can’t keep a campaign manager, they run ALL of his affairs – from Richie his manager to Liz his treasurer. Nobody else can get near him. Why?

This, 95, I posit to you is not a man we want representing us in our national legislature. His credentials are suspicious, and personal practices alarming. Nobody wanted a muddy campaign. But that’s what it’s come down to, because it’s simply the truth. It’s heartbreaking that our county’s politics have devolved into this, but if it keeps Sestak the Demagogue out of the Senate and out of our national politics, it’s worth it.

95-
1) When I mean ground-game, I mean the unions, the committee people, etc.
2) If you are talking about “street money” and paying people, what do you think goes on in the Delco GOP? 99% of the courthouse staff are political appointees, and are “expected” at the polls. Some even get the day off to work the polls.
So, please don’t pretend it’s a strictly Dem-party practice.

3) I’ve never thought you were a Dem. But, were you the one who got a call for Sestak’s telephone town meeting, and I asked you had Dems in the house. You are clearly a right-wing Palin-loving, Toomey-following, John Birch-joining Republican.

If you want your sleezy guy to win, may I suggest that you get off your butts and go do to door.

Specter has the ground force for Tuesday so don’t count your chickens.

Must I tell you again that the only poll that counts is on Tuesday and then we will know. If you go with the little Admiral, we will lose in November but that probably means nothing to you.

It is rather funny how Democrats only care about the general but seem to always lose the general. Look at the big picture if you can. Winning the general is all that matters and the horrible little admiral can’t.

Talk away kids, I signed out the hospital just for the primary and now I am out knocking on doors for Specter !

Dave, I have never read a treatise on the DELCO GOP, like I have read about the open air cesspool practices of the Dems in the City over a period of 30 years of the Bulletin(the original AND the new) and the Inquirer. Count Labor and the committee people in that also.

Dave, I am not a Dem, anymore, and again, I know that you read these posts thoroughly, I left the DEMS as a REAGAN Dem, after the Ultra Left wacko’s refused to let Bob Casey Sr. Speak at the national convention. I now, lol,live in a mixed political marriage!

Dave, what I am, as an individual, is a believer in the rights and strength of the individual, and of limited government on the FEDERAL level.

John Birch, no. Toomey follower, yes. Sarah Palin? I really enjoy the way she elicits the rabid response from the left. And I would also submit that in general, you guys have ugly broads, we have attractive ladies!!!

95 South-
I submit you were never a real Dem (even if you had a D in your registration).
Casey Sr. was the whacko. They could have let him speak, but let’s not pretend he wasn’t on the edge.

Palin? She’s a poster child for what is wrong with the right-wing. It’s hard to get mad at her, because she is such a joke. She’s soaking up speaking fees and distracting substantive discussions/planning by the GOP.

Toomey is a right-wing, John Birch loving, nut.

Actually, there are plenty of hot young Dems. You’ve got the Stepford wives.

Dave, thank you for finally curing me of my latent guilt at ever having been a “D”

Knocking Bob Casey? Wow Dave, only the most popular governor since William Penn.

Dave it is my hope to politically seduce as many hot young female dems as I can!