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Senate primary too close to call in final hours
After a year of campaigning, bitter attacks and counter-attacks, and millions of dollars worth of TV advertising, the Senate Democratic primary is pretty much as close as it gets.
Joe Sestak holds a statistically insignificant one-point lead over incumbent Arlen Specter, 42 percent to 41 percent, according to a new poll. The Quinnipiac University survey released Monday morning showed 16 percent undecided, and was consistent with a host of recent polls that have depicted a dead-heat race in the lead up to Tuesday’s primary.
Of those likely voters who are backing a candidate, a full quarter say they still might change their minds, setting up a down-to-the-wire finish in which anything can happen.
“The Sestak-Specter race is a dead heat and could go either way,” Quinnipiac’s assistant polling director Peter Brown said in a statement. “[Specter] has the party organization behind him, which should help with turnout. But [Sestak] could benefit from the relatively large group of undecided voters. Generally, incumbents don’t do all that well with undecideds, who are more likely to vote for the challenger or not vote.
“And slightly more of Specter’s voters than Sestak’s say they might change their minds,” Brown added.
Specter wins men by a five-point margin, according to the poll, while women are evenly split between the two candidates. Half of likely Democratic voters still view Specter favorably, and 45 percent of respondents say they still haven’t heard enough about Sestak. But in the closing hours of the race, it’s increasingly clear that Specter’s efforts to define Sestak in negative terms have been largely unsuccessful: 42 percent of Democrats view him favorably, compared to only 11 percent who view him unfavorably.
The survey of 951 likely primary voters, conducted from Wednesday through Sunday nights, had a margin of error of 3.2 percent.
May 17, 2010 at 8:56 am
Tags: Arlen Specter, Joe Sestak













Bill M.
May 17th, 2010
Who are you voting for, Dan? I am really struggling to decide this one.
Bruce Bailey
May 17th, 2010
More idiotic tripe from the leader of the state Democratic Party, TJ Rooney in today’s Inquirer:
“[Sestak's] been calling Arlen Specter all sorts of names suggesting he’s a better Democrat, but the one true-blue Democrat is Arlen Specter,” Rooney said in an interview Sunday. “If Joe Sestak can’t be counted on to support his opponent if he loses, what can we count on him for?”
1-Other than calling Specter what he really is –a five-term Republican – what name-calling has Sestak done? None that I know of. But Rooney, they guy who’s ordering Democrats to vote for Specter, seems to have no trouble at all throwing a lie like this.
2-Rooney sets up the twisted lie that journalists ran with, that “Sestak can’t be counted on to support his opponent.” Of course, Joe said nothing like that. What he said was that he wouldn’t consider losing, which is very, very different.
One great side benefit of Sestak winning tomorrow will be the real message of this campaign: the Democratic leadership has completely lost touch with the grassroots voters of this party. It’s not just time for new blood in our Senate nominee, it’s time to clean house in our leadership, too.
David Diano
May 17th, 2010
Bruce-
I saw the interview. Sestak went out of way to dodge the question. It may look like discipline to act like losing isn’t an option. But, we usually call that living in a state of denial.
What would it have cost Sestak to say, “Of course I’d support Arlen, but I’m not going to have to.”??
Has Sestak previous claimed there was no difference between Specter and Toomey?
Dan Hirschhorn
May 17th, 2010
Hey Bill M.,
I am not registered with any political party, therefore I cannot vote in party primaries under Pennsylvania law.
And even though I can vote in November, I will not be doing so.
I know objectivity is impossible at a purely human level. But it’s a worthy aspiration, one to which I have decided to devote my life (incredibly corny sounding, I know).
So I’m not picking any horses in any of these races.
As to your vote, I only have one position: You should vote.
Good luck making your decision. Should be a close race.
And thanks for reading.
Dan Hirschhorn
Senator Sestak
May 17th, 2010
This race is over. Sestak wins.
sick of it all
May 17th, 2010
Very happy tomorrow night to know that the rendell-rooney era is over…maybe we can back ot having real democrats in charge and not oportunists like rendell and rooney.
Bruce Bailey
May 17th, 2010
David, he could have said anything in response.
But this is what he did say. And it wasn’t reported accurately. Instead, it was interpreted (incorrectly, in my opinion) as part of a news story. It was interpreted in the way that most benefits Arlen Specter and TJ Rooney. And that’s just flat wrong.
Riley
May 17th, 2010
The party establishment has it right- the party should WELCOME moderates who leave the other side, not push them out because they havent always been a Democrat.
Perhaps for the true betterment of the state we should be especially welcoming to someone with seniority who sits on the appropriations committee and brings billions to PA.
Take a moment and think about the state without Specter and the funding he brings.
David Diano
May 17th, 2010
Dan-
I respect your neutrality, but I’m surprised you don’t plan to vote in November. You get to interview a lot of these candidates face-to-face and have access to information that you can’t always print. Your vote is probably a lot more informed than most.
Certainly some candidates must represent your views closer than other candidates. If a candidate was running with a record of trying to stifle the press vs more transparency, I would expect you to have an opinion on that.
So, I’ll give some advise I just read recently from a very wise man:
“As to your vote, I only have one position: You should vote.”
I love irony.
TheMortonMagician
May 17th, 2010
Dan:
I totally respect and agree with your stance on objectivity as a journalist. However, I am HORRIFIED that you do not intend to vote in November. That is the most basic and fundamental part of this democratic process we are all so concerned about. Journalists in most cases are best off keeping their opinions to themselves, but to refuse to vote out of some misguided need for editorial purity is a ridiculous and offensive conceit. Vote for Mickey Mouse. Vote for yourself. But the act of not voting, even for a supposedly “principled” reason, cheapens the process, and gives aid and comfort to those who don’t vote because maintaining a democratic society is someone else’s problem, not theirs.
Mario Cimino
D – Morton Borough Council
Lee Levan
May 17th, 2010
Dan-
Not attacking; but wondering how your voting in the general and keeping it secret, as we all have the right to do, hinders your objectivity, or even the perception of your objectivity.
p.s. You know that you’ll be accused of favoritism no matter what you do or don’t do.
Dan Hirschhorn
May 17th, 2010
Hey David, Mario and Lee,
All of you make good points, and alas, I’ve heard them all before from friends of mine who are similarly horrified when they hear that I decline to vote in these situations.
I don’t expect to be able to convince you that this makes sense, but nonetheless, here’s just a brief window into my thinking on the matter.
Yes, voting is the core of our participatory democracy. It is a right we all enjoy. It is the glue that holds this system together. All that patriotic stuff
Now, as corny as it sounds, I see myself as having chosen to exercise a different role in that democracy, one of informing you fantastic people, rather than exercising the right myself. Just as I have the right to vote, I also have the right not to vote. It is my right, to do with it what I please.
Would voting completely ruin my credibility and destroy any semblance of objectivity? Of course not. But that’s not the point. I do ANYTHING and EVERYTHING I possibly can to attain the greatest, most dispassionate level of objectivity possible.
I see consciously avoiding having a horse in the race as part and parcel to that effort.
So there it is, a little look inside my neurosis.
Hope you enjoyed.
And thanks as always for getting involved in the conversation.
Dan Hirschhorn