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Poll: Senate race ‘too close to call’

Senator Arlen Specter holds a statistically insignificant two-point lead in the final days before his primary election showdown with Congressman Joe Sestak (D-7), according to a new poll.

The Quinnipiac University survey released Wednesday echoed what has now become an overwhelming body of polling data that shows Specter double-digit lead over his challenger having completely evaporated. In the poll, Specter wins 44 percent of the vote, compared to 42 for Sestak. And in an indication that the race is still very much up in the air, 14 percent of likely primary voters are undecided and 29 percent of respondents who do pick a candidate say they might change their mind.

“[Specter] has a history of winning close elections and he’ll need that to continue, because his once commanding lead is gone,” Quinnipiac University Polling Institute Assistant Director Peter Brown said in a statement. “His margin over Sestak is too close to call.”

The results amount to a sea change over the last month. Quinnipiac found Specter leading by 21 points on April 7—just as Sestak’s clearly effective statewide advertising blitz began—and by 8 points just over a week ago.

“The intangibles are clearly on Sestak’s side,” Brown said. “He has the momentum and the anti-incumbent wave sweeping the country is a good omen for the challenger.”

Sestak has risen simultaneously to a fall in Specter’s numbers, according to the poll. Fifty percent of likely Democratic voters now view Specter favorably, down from 60 percent a month ago. Sestak’s favorability ratings have jumped about 10 points, and the proportion of voters who haven’t heard enough about him to form an opinion has dropped by 12 points. Any effort to define Sestak in a negative light appears to have had a relatively minimal impact; only 10 percent of likely voters view him unfavorably, compared to 42 percent who view him favorably.

Specter still holds a 7-point lead when respondents are asked who they “trust more to do in office what they say they will during the campaign.” But the two are virtually tied when respondents are asked which candidate most shares their values and which candidates is most consistently liberal. Specter’s best hope, it seems, continues to be that voters will pull the level strategically, with Republican Pat Toomey in mind: 54 percent say he’s more likely to win in November, compared to 29 percent who say the same about Sestak. Recent polling data has cut against the perception—on paper, at least—that Specter matches up better with Toomey.

The poll was also one of the first surveys to include Republican Peg Luksik, and it found Toomey, the presumptive nominee, easily topping her 60 percent to 9 percent, with 31 percent of likely Republican voters undecided.

The poll did not gauge potential general election matchups.

The survey of 945 likely Democratic, conducted May 5-10, had a margin of error of 3.2 percent.

Click here to see the poll.

share001btn Poll: Senate race too close to call

May 12, 2010 at 8:25 am

--Dan Hirschhorn

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comments [21] | post a comment

  1. Lee Levan

    May 12th, 2010

    Today’s F & M poll has Sestak up by 2; so, with the Morning Call tracking poll being a tie, it’s about as dead a heat as can be. In large part, it’s now about which campaign can get its vote out on Tuesday.

  2. Senator Sestak

    May 12th, 2010

    All of the movement in the polls over the last few weeks has favored the Admiral. Democrats are now focusing on the race and are deciding not to support the Bush Republican Specter. Joe Sestak has all the momentum he needs to pull off a stunning upset on Tuesday.

  3. Get it RIGHT

    May 12th, 2010

    Congressman Sestak is a victum of Global Warming!

    He is a FALLEN STAR due to “POOR COMMAND CLIMATE”

    Which reduced him to “RETIRED 2 Star REAR ADMIRAL”

    When will this fallen star RELEASE HIS MILITARY RECORD!

  4. HateSestak

    May 12th, 2010

    Get it RIGHT: Unfortunately for Representative Sestak, the subject you have broached continues to stir discussion. The question persists: why the reluctance to disclose this information?

  5. HateSestak

    May 12th, 2010

    Lee Levan: Turnout, obviously, is vitally important. Another pivotal issue: the endorsements the candidates have recieved. As I prognosticated, Senator Specter has begun to tout the endorsements he recieved from The Philadelphia Inquirer, The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, and institutions. These endorsements carry considerable weight – and undoubtedly influence primary voters. Representative Sestak, of course, has not received any notable endorsements. This is a major liability, given that Sestak is an unknown commodity to many.

  6. David Diano

    May 12th, 2010

    Dan-
    While Specter’s double-digit lead of a few weeks ago has disappeared, the buried/missing headline is that Sestak’s 5-point lead that was being heralded has also evaporated.

    Specter has the advantage in the ground game, and the recent polls don’t factor in the effects Specter’s new Obama ad.

    Specter should have the advantage in the ground-game.

  7. bill healy

    May 12th, 2010

    lol what ground game. he may have the endorsements of the AFL-CIO but the workers aren’t buying it,they haven’t turned out for phone banking. must really be discourging when Democrats laugh at the idea of voting for Arlen. Give it a try dave,you have the data base,call some women and ask them to vote for Arlen but be prepared for thier scorn. Anita Hill may be anchient history to you but it’s not to over half of the Democratic voters in the state of Pa.

  8. @Snarlin_Arlen

    May 12th, 2010

    Bill, Bill, Bill, come on, Anita Hill is ancient history. Now still being a raging sexist and tell Rep. Bachman to act like a lady, that is whats in now.

  9. David Diano

    May 12th, 2010

    Bill-
    The unions don’t want to see Toomey win, and Arlen’s their best defense against that. The unions realize Joe’s not the real deal.
    Then, it looks like half the Democratic voters are fools trapped in the last century. If people like you prevail next week, you’ll be able to transfer your hate over the next 6 years to Senator Toomey and long for the days of Arlen.

  10. HateSestak

    May 12th, 2010

    Healy: The head of the PA Democratic Party recently asserted that a Sestak primary victory would be a “cataclysmic” outcome. Given that Sestak has diminished resources (under $3 million), minimal fundraising capability (as demonstrated by recently disclosed numbers), no significant newspaper endorsements, no support from notable Dems, and lingering questions concerning his background, one can understand why he made that assertion. Toomey would undoubtedly welcome a Sestak victory – because the 7th District demagogue would pose no threat whatsoever.

  11. David Diano

    May 12th, 2010

    Hater-
    If Sestak had only $2.9 million at the end of April, what’s he going to have left after May 18th? Less than $1 million.
    Sestak’s bankroll for the primary started with the $3 million he had left from his 2008 re-election. He raised another $1 million by the time he announced in Aug 2009. Most of that is earmarked for the primary. (Though there is $2,400 reserved for the General from Richard Mellon Scaife. That’s enough for 6 staffers for a month, or 4/5 of a sibling.)
    Joe’s fundraising pace slowed down in April.

    There is probably very little “General Election” money in Sestak’s coffers, and Joe has made it clear he’s going to spend every penny of his Primary funds and not save any for a rainy day in the Fall.

    HEY BILL.. How much does Joe have in his General Election fund?

    Does Toomey send you guys thank you letters for making his job easier?

  12. bill healy

    May 12th, 2010

    hater does anyone other than you care what the dying Inquirer has to say? I used to read it before it became a platform for the right wing of the Republican party, couldn’t stomach the war criminal John Yoo, the moron Santorum or the always wrong Krauthamer. The endorsement by such a paper should be the kiss of death for any Democratic candidate.

  13. bill healy

    May 12th, 2010

    Hater you don’t really teach poli-sci do you? Can’t imagine that any student gets their moneys worth out of your class. When Joe Sestak wins on May 18th the cataclysm will be for the Repubs, a specter candidicy will only energize repubs and depress democratic turnout. Toomey will slaughter arlen specter. The only way Democrats can prevail in Nov. is with a REAL DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE that’s Joe Sestak.

  14. bill healy

    May 12th, 2010

    Dave the so called Union leaders seem to be more concrned with currying favor with the so called Democratic leadership (Rooney & Rendell) than with who is the better challange against Toomey,Arlen will get eaten alive by Repubs in Nov. They already have their campaign stragey mapped out to expose him as the unreliable Senator he is, unreliable as a Republican and Democrat. He can’t win when over 60% of his new party doesn’t support him. Independents won’t come to his rescue in today’s political climate.

  15. GB

    May 12th, 2010

    Specter’s team should run an add reminding everyone that for most of his first race in 2006 in the 7th district, Sestak rented a home in Springfield because his domicile was in Virginia. I wonder if he even paid PA taxes that year.

    Sestak is a shameless opportunist who sold out the 7th district the moment we elected him to the house. He has a pitiful attendance record, has a horrible reputation amongst his House colleagues, and never misses an opportunity to plug himself.

    The fact that he’s forcing the party to expend needless resources in a primary match-up that accomplishes NOTHING for the party strategically is the epitome of selfishness.

    Hopefully it will also be the climactic political achievement of a man whose vanity runs second only to the likes of John Edwards. Perhaps they can bunk-up in the Land for Misfit Democrats and leave the rest of us well enough alone.

  16. bill healy

    May 12th, 2010

    I thought it was that slimeball specter that is forcing the Democrats to waste money ousting a republican that never should have been allowed on the ballot. Imagine that a Republican slimeball on the Democratic ticket and you blame the Democrat. Crawl back under your GOP rock GB.

  17. David Diano

    May 12th, 2010

    GB-
    It was an apartment in Nether Providence. His parents’ house is in Springfield, which is where he was registered until he and his got the apartment.
    The wife dropped her PA registration after the Nov 2006 election.
    Rumor has it she FINALLY re-registered in PA for this election. I’ll know tomorrow evening when I get the final voter file, and what date is on her records.

    Bill-
    Why don’t YOU ask Joe why his wife dropped her PA registration one he got elected? I’m dying to hear that story.

    Anyway, Specter was a great “get” for the Dems. We’ve been trying to recruit him for years.

  18. GB

    May 12th, 2010

    Here here, DD.

    bill healy – I’ve never been a Republican, and therefore have no rock to crawl out from.

    I would also advise you that in the interest of Democratic Party principles and the advancement of the nation, you crawl out from beneath your Sestak Boulder of Oblivion and embrace the truth about “the Admiral” whom you so blithely admire.

  19. bill healy

    May 12th, 2010

    Anyone who supports Arlen Specter,can’t expect to be taken seriously on the priciples or interest of the Democratic party. Joe Sestak will do more to advance those priciples and the advancment of the nation in his first term than the Republican Specter ever has. He is without priciples or integrity, Arlen has always put Arlen first.

  20. David Diano

    May 13th, 2010

    Bill-
    priciples or interest of the Democratic party? Joe?
    You’ve got to be f*cking kidding.

    When has Joe failed to put himself (and his overpaid siblings) first since he got into politics? One of the biggest complaints I hear from former volunteers is that “it’s all about Joe” and “Joe is more interested in what Delaware county can do for him, rather than what he can do for Delaware county.”
    Bill, I get that you like Joe, and his votes. Fine. But don’t come here and pretend that Joe gives a rat’s ass about the Democratic party or anybody else in it. You know better than that.

  21. Lana

    May 13th, 2010

    Bill H

    As a woman and a pro choice person, I will vote for Specter so what are you talking about.? Specter is the only one that can win in the fall and that is what it is all about in the end. Thanks to people like you we will have a Republican Senator. Maybe you are a real republican at heart. If you are not working the polls all day on Tuesday then maybe you should just shut up as you have no room to talk.
    I will be at the polls all day and I will be pushing Specter all the way. Other than your one little vote, what will you be doing if you care so much. Sestak is a loser and would be in the fall, is that what you want????

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