Poll finds Holden vulnerable; large undecided bloc in GOP primary

Congressman Tim Holden (D-17) is suffering from the same low electability ratings afflicting many incumbent members of Congress, but the perceived Republican front-runner in the primary to face him has hardly sealed the nomination, according to a new poll.

The survey to be released Wednesday by the GOP firm Susquehanna Polling & Research found 42 percent of likely voters saying Holden doesn’t deserve reelection, while only 38 percent say he does deserve another term in the 17th District; 20 percent are undecided. The results, first obtained and published by GrassrootsPA, come with Republicans eager to unseat Holden despite the fact that he may have given himself political cover by voting against health care reform legislation.

Holden should have an easy path to renomination next week—he has twice the support of underdog primary challenger Sheila Dow-Ford, an education policy advocate against whom the incumbent spearheaded an unsuccessful ballot challenge.

But the candidate facing the most immediate concern may be state Senator Dave Argall (R-Schuylkill), who high-level GOP leaders are hoping will take a strong fight to Holden in the fall. A plurality of voters in the looming primary are undecided, according to the poll, and Argall is barely outperforming retired Marine Frank Ryan, who has run in the central Pennsylvania district before. In the four-way contest, Argall garners 21 percent of the vote, compared 17 percent for Ryan, a difference within the margin of error for the sample of Republicans. Forty-seven percent of Republicans are undecided, according to the poll.

The automated telephone survey of 1,000 likely voters, including 530 Republicans and 400 Democrats, was conducted May 7-8. It had a margin of error of 3.1 percent for the general election sample, and margin of error 4.2 percent for the Republican primary.

Click here to see the poll, as published by GrassrootsPA.