This is the next-to-last Muhlenberg poll.

Sestak’s vaporous 5-point lead is gone.

Will Quinnipiac release one last poll?

Again, such polls are unimportant at this juncture. The outcome hinges on the Commonwealth’s two heavily populated metropolitan areas – metro areas that overwhelmingly support Senator Specter. Specter was endorsed by the major newspapers in these metro areas (The Philadelphia Inquirer and The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette), the preeminent public figures in these metro areas, and the high-profile interest groups in these metro areas. Residents of these two densely populated metro areas will dictate the outcome. The opinions voiced by a handful of prospective voters from across the state are of no consequence.

Omitted the monicker again. Sorry.

As mentioned previously, the outcome of this primary hinges on turnout in the two heavily populated metropolitan areas in the Commonwealth, areas where Senator Specter enjoys a tremendous advantage. Had the polls (with their negligible samplings from across the state)continued to show Senator Specter with a commanding lead, turnout in these two metro areas might have been lowered, and an upset could have been a remote possibility. But the furor and tumult surrounding these polls all but ensures that turnout (for example, among the elderly, ethnic minorities and union members) in the two major metro areas will be considerable, and this obviously favors Senator Specter. Close polls = high turnout in densely popluated metro areas. High turnout in densely populated metro areas = Specter victory.

The logic is irrefutable, folks. Specter was endorsed by The Philadelphia Inquirer and The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette; city dwellers are influenced by such endorsements. Specter enjoys the support of crucially important public officials, interest groups, etc., in the two key metro areas; this, too, carries much weight with city dwellers. The polls have ensured that turnout will be considerable in the densely populated metro areas – areas dominated by Senator Specter. Game over.

And, it’s supposed to rain on Tuesday.

I’m not sure who that hurts or helps the most.

Depressed turnout in Philly hurts Specter. Depressed turnout in Delco hurts Sestak.

In Philly, you’ve got Williams pushing turnout.
In Pittsburgh, you’ve got Onorato pushing turnout.

Sestak is endorsed by only one ward in each of the two biggest cities.
He’s got only 5 of the 67 county endorsements.

This means that Specter’s name will appear on most of the county party sample ballots.

Mr. Diano: In actuality, Sestak has no built-in constituencies in the two critical metro areas that he can depend on. There is no particular interest group, no demographic, no segment of the population in these two metro areas that is fully committed to him. Anti-incumbent fervor is insufficient in this context (i.e., a Commonwealth where turnout in two heavily populated areas determines the outcome). Senator Specter has bodies of voters in the two major metropolitian areas who steadfastly support him (labor union members, ethnic minorities, senior citizens, etc., etc.) and will participate in large numbers on primary day.

Would-be pundits and observers have overestimated the importance of these polls, and have wholly ignored the empirical facts. Endorsements (such as the endorsements Senator Specter recently recieved from The Philadelphia Daily News, The Philadelphia Gay News, etc.), the support of critical interest groups and public officials, reliable constituencies, turnout – these are the keys to victory in the two pivotal metro areas. Specter has all of the ingredients necessary to victory. Sestak has none of them.

Specter is a disgusting Slimeball He does not deserve to be eleted to anything ever again

Why does the Republican Party put at The Head of the Party Convicted Felon Robet ( Asher’s Candies ) Asher ?

Final Muhlenberg shows race tied at 44%.

Here is my Google-Spreadsheet that combines the various polls, based on their margins of error. Enjoy!

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Ah5h1gW0CSv4dHg0LWdBSkpDUHVqckt0eFpXbXFHU3c&hl=en

I used 1/2 the margin of error as the standard deviation. I used Excel function NORMDIST to compute the normal distribution probabilities form Specter -10 to Specter +6.
I did not include the Suffolk Specter -9 column because it was far outside the range of the other polls. Rasmussen is 10 days old and an outlier as well, but I left it in.

The “Charts” sheet shows 3 charts. The first one shows all the different polls. The Quinnipiac poll is thinner and higher because of its smaller margin of error. The F&M poll is lower and wider due its large margin of error.
All the curves have the same area under them corresponding to a full 100% probability (though there is a slight cut-off on the edges).

The second chart is the average probabilities of the values of the first chart.

The third chart is the cumulative probabilities. The 50% mark occurs around Specter -1. But it would be around zero, without the Rasmussen number.

My point is this is showing a more weighted approach to adding up the polls. You can’t average Quinnipiac +2 (900LV) and F&M -2 (150LV) and get Zero=tie.

Anyway, the spreadsheet is read only. Feel free to download to your own computers as Excel and play around. I did include the Suffolk poll to the side. You could copy it from column N to G.
You can remove (clear) the RAS poll and see how that changes the results. Or, if Ras puts out one last poll, you can just change the Mean value.

The GOP candidate is the convicted felon Asher hack to be sure. Asher’sother candidate in the race, Joe Hoeffel, thought he would get a boost from Asher for marrying upf the GOP traitor Jim Matthews. Sorry Joe: Asher lied. Get back to Montco before Matthews gets arrested for looting the placeblind while you were out campainging to end up with 18% of the statewide primary vote.

Snarlin Arlen Is Not Up I thought they were gonna poll everyday till election day This poll is ancient History already

HateSpecter: “Slimeball” – that is how I would characterize someone who cavorts with nefarious labor racketeers like Wendell Young IV. “Slimeball” – that is how I would characterize someone who touts their stellar military career, but adamantly refuses to substantiate their lofty claims. “Slimeball” – that is how I would characterize someone who makes baseless accusations against the incumbent Democratic President of the United States at the height of the all-important healthcare debate, giving fodder to right-wing Republicans. Yes, Representative Sestak is indeed a “slimeball.”

I don’t blame youfor staying anon. hater,you would be in court for slander and defamation of character if you posted such lies under your name. Cowards like you lacking in conscience always lurk in the shadows. Crawl back under your rock you slimeball, are your Curt Weldon or Charlie Sexton?

Has anyone noticed that Bill Healy is getting more unhinged, angry, desperate?

On Facebook, I challenged that Sestak has hidden his records, and Bill responded with:
“Where are your service records Dave? you 4f fuck” Really classy, Bill.

Bill followed it up with: “Were you mentally or morally unfit for service?” Which is the reason they used to expel gays from the military.
Again, classy.

I’m not the kind of order-following robot that Bill and the rest of Sestak’s followers are. (Shoot first, think never.)
I would have been on permanent latrine duty for my tendency to mouth off to “authority figures” (like Sestak) who command by rank and not by leadership. Joe’s career advancement seems equal portions ability and kissing the right asses. Now, he expects everyone to kiss his.

However, I proudly did my part for my country by putting my math, science and computer skills to work for a Navy defense contractor specializing in multi-million dollar ASW (anti-submarine warfare) projects.