Its May 5, 2010. Do you know where your Sestak advertisements are?

This is all within the margin of error on both races except for the interesting Onorato downward trend in vote and favorability. I’d be interested in the take of my esteemed opponent Mr. Diano on the Senate primary. Is he surprised at the sub fifty percent for his fresh hatched Democratic junior Senator?

Running on television,don’t you watch? They are doing a great job eroding the fake democrat Specters soft support. soon it will just be RJ Rooney and Rendell who will still admit backing him. Specter nowhere to go but down,Sestak starting to soar. You should invest in some of those adult pampers,you’ll need them on election night,don’t want you to soil your pants

Every poll still shows Sen Specter still ahead. There hasn’t been a single poll that has ever shown Sestak ahead. As expected, Sestak got a small bump in the polls coming off the debate…however, a 8% lead is still a landslide in politics.

BTW, I’m still waiting for the much anticipated Sestak “media blitz.” I see numerous ads by Sen Specter every day, but barely have seen a Sestak ad. What’s the man waiting for?!?

Specter by double digits!

Dem Voter: Indeed. If Sestak is truly committed to victory, he should be prepared to invest sizable sums in TV advertising. Thus far, he has refrained from doing so. How does one account for this? Those who have rejected the notion that Sestak is conserving his resources for a much-needed Legal Defense Fund must obviously reconsider.

Bill-
Gee, what happened to that momentum and traction you were chirping about yesterday when the poll went from +9 to +4?
Now Sestak slid back 4 points.

If you look at the last 4 Sestak numbers, not the spread, you have… 42% 40% 42% 40%
That means Sestak is stuck at 41%

Specter’s numbers are: 48% 49% 46% 48%
That means Specter is around 48%

So, the race is at 7-points, Joe has no momentum. However, yesterday, his campaign sent out an email touting momentum and used “*BIG MO*“. I guess the didn’t realize that Big Mo is slang for something else.

Sestak “soaring” rhymes with “boring”. The voters are “snoring” and the lemmings are “whoring”.

GOPHawk-
It’s a competitive race with 10%-12% undecided. Of the remaining 90%, Specter’s 48% number is 53% of the undecideds. The undecideds might not bother to show up, or feel that Sestak hasn’t make a good case as an alternative who can beat Toomey, then go with Arlen by default.

Sestak was expecting everybody to buy his “you can’t trust Arlen” mantra. Not only hasn’t it worked, but Specter polls HIGHER than Sestak on the question of “whom do you trust more to vote as he campaigns?”.

Specter came in and has worked hard to be a member of the team. The more the GOP trashes him, the more he looks like a Dem.

Healy: Your obsession with defecation and fecal matter is quite troubling. Of course, given the bull@#! you are disseminating, it comes as no surprise. Continue to engage in wishful thinking if you wish. Senator Specter commands a sizable lead – and his resources easily eclipse those of Representative Sestak. Sestak will soon be relagated to the ash heap of history – where he so rightfully belongs.

Healy: Oh – and Rendell is most assuredly not alone, as you know. Specter enjoys the enthusiastic support of The Philadelphia Inquirer, The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the President of the United States, and every eminent Democrat in PA. And the Senator can tout this in forthcoming ads. Meanwhile, Sestak has attracted endorsements from a genitals-fondling ex-congressman and a corrupt labor racketeer. Stark contrast, is it not?

David, your posts are sounding increasingly desperate and out of touch. Sort of like the Specter campaign.

You are misrepresenting the Muhlenberg poll. And since I believe you actually understand it, I have to assume you misrepresenting it on purpose.

I would agree with your conclusion, that the race now stands somewhere between 5-7 points. I think you’re on the high side, but within reason.

But as to your comment that “Joe has no momentum” – that’s not just wrong, it’s obviously foolish. Momentum is not measured over four days, it’s measured in weeks. The gap as of a month ago was coming in at somewhere around 20 points. If we take your number, it is now 7. So Joe has closed the gap, in face of fierce negative advertising, to within the margin of error for a dead heat.

That’s not just a little momentum, that’s huge. And there are still lots and lots of undecided Democratic voters waiting until closer to Primary Day to decide. Experience shows that the vast majority of undecideds in a primary where the incumbent is a party switcher will vote for the challenger.

I expect that somebody in the Specter camp has now decided that treacly piano music in their ads must be to blame, so now we’ll be hearing jazz saxophone to show us how hip the old man is.

It really looks like they have no clue and no direction at all, now that the smears have failed.

Dave, I’m still chirping, when I get 70 year old voters on the phone and tell them the choice is between Joe Sestak or Specter,they lol and say “I could never vote for Specter!!” these are voters who vote in EVERY election.

Honest polling assessments make it clear that the Admiral has momentum and has remarkably closed the gap in a few short weeks. The Bush Republican Specter will not win undecideds in our Democratic primary. The Admiral is now at the helm in this race.

Bruce-
When Quinnipiac came out with the race at Specter +21 and Rasmussen had +2 a week later, the Ras poll was the only poll you heard the Sestak campaign talk about.
What I am misrepresenting in the daily poll? Joe’s number are fluctuating at 41% +/- 1% and Specter is around 48%. That’s a gap of 7. This is consistent with the latest Q-poll of +8.

I’m not denying that Joe has improved, since last month. However, we’ve seen this pattern before where Sestak has a temporary surge, but gets no lasting traction. Therefore, I say that, based on past history, I expect this pattern to repeat over the next two weeks and that Sestak has already peaked.

Bruce, where do you get the 5 in your 5-7?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_democratic_primary-1050.html

The only time’s Joe has ever been under +6 are:
Oct 09 Rasmussen +4 (one day automated poll of 469 LV)
Apr 10 Rasmussen +2 (one day, automated, 435 LV)

And a +4 blip yesterday from Muhlenberg, which is now back to +8.

I’m sure the next Republican skewed Ras poll will show Joe close (or ahead), but even my Mom, who is solidly for Joe, places no stock in the Ras poll.

Bruce, the Sestak message is still “31-years in the Navy. I’m not Arlen. Sick daughter. I’m going to change Washington.” The “change Washington” empty platitude is a hollow ‘promise’.

Specter has: “I’ve done x, y and z for PA, run out of letters, and I’m ready to loop around and do a, b and c as a Dem. I’m endorsed by everybody you ever heard of and the labor unions. I’ve got the experience to beat Toomey.”

The undecideds are at 11%-12%. Sestak needs to win over 70%-75% of them and get them to show up at the polls. The undecideds are not going to break 70%-30% for Sestak. More likely, they’ll stay home.

Bruce, think back to the Weldon election. Sestak had REAL momentum then. But, two-weeks out, Joe was a lot closer than 8 points. It was already about dead even, and Joe had the full weight of the party and the Rendell-Casey ticket running the ground operations.

Bill-
When you get 70-year old voters on the phone, do they say “Speak up, Sonny.”?

Of course, “never voting for Specter” is not the same as “voting for Sestak”.

I’m glad to see you and Team Sestak wasting your time calling the 100% turnout voters who have already decided. Basically, you wasted a call on someone who you didn’t alter.

However, if you asked those same 70-year old voters: “Who do you think has the better shot at beating Toomey?” I doubt you will get as enthusiastic support for Sestak. The Q-poll shows that 60% of likely Dem voters think Specter has the better shot if winning in November.

While Sestak has fooled many into thinking he’s the “real” Dem in the race, Arlen Specter is the “read-deal” when it comes to defeating Toomey.

Where do I get the 5%?

You have to extend the line: If you graph the falling margin over the past month, and note that all of today’s polls are based all or in-part on numbers compiled last week, you need to make your best guess about where the number stands today.

My best guess is that the margin is still falling and stands somewhere around 5%, with probably about 8-10% still undecided. That just continues the trend that has already been established.

On what do you base your assumption that the momentum has stalled? Where can you possibly find any statistical evidence of that? And don’t dare give me the Muhlenberg poll, since we’ve already discussed how that isn’t a good daily snapshot due to its margin of error.

We probably have one more poll to come this week — DK/Research 2000 — and we’ll probably get another round of all of them next week. Plus we’ll have daily Muhlenbergs from now until Primary Day. By the time votes are cast, I’ll be very surprised if anybody has this outside 5 points either way.

Mr. Diano: Fascinating how much importance Sestak’s flunkeys are suddenly attaching to the primary election outcome. Too bad the primary election outcome won’t influence the House Ethics Committee the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), or other increasingly impatient entities huh? Such a terrible shame. At any rate, your arguments are sound. Senator Specter, as mentioned previously, can tout his recent endorsements from The Philadelphia Inquirer, The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and others in any forthcoming advertisements. Representative Sestak will simply regurgitate the same (hyperbolic) claims concerning his background. Senator Specter will cite his many contributions to the state of PA throughout his distinguished tenure, and emphasize that he enjoys the support of most reputable public figures in PA. Representative Sestak will call attention to…uh…er…his daughter’s recurrent bouts with illness? In actuality, there is little, if any, substance to either Representative Sestak or his ill-starred Senate bid. Sestak must demonstrate that he committed to addressing burning issues, and that he is motivated by something other than megalomania and delusions of grandeur.

Sestak is getting a temporary bump in the polls from the debate. It won’t last very long. Sestak’s ads are bio/resume ads. When is he going to run an ad outlining what he’s actually accomplished for anyone?!?

Vote for the Democrat in the Democratic Primary

Vote for Joe Sestak on May 18

http://www.joesestak.com

Bruce-
Ah.. extend the line…
I guess you never heard of a sine-wave or other non-linear fluctuating data.
By your reasoning, President McCain and VP Sarah Palin beat Obama/Biden in 2008.
I found the graph:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

You are living in the McCain dream world of early Sept 2008.

The thing about “bounce” is that it bounces back.

Bruce, the Quinnipiac poll spanned the debate, but most of it was “pre-debate”. Sestak was at 39%. The latest Muhlenberg covers May 1 through May 4 and is mostly post-debate. Both cover 4 days. Sestak is at 40% in Muhlenberg.
The debate certainly wasn’t a “knock-out” for Sestak that would add to his momentum. If anything it could be a momentum killer, because Sestak’s didn’t offer up much to people waiting to hear a deal-maker.

Like I said, we’ve seen this pattern before where Sestak gets a bump, then it fades.
You also act like Specter won’t have response, and doesn’t have the newspaper endorsements and his name on most of the endorsement sample ballots.

Bruce, you are the one with no statistical evidence. The trend-line argument is a little shaky and neglects saturation, feedback loops, baseline support, etc.

Specter’s been polling between the upper 40′s and low 50′s all 2010. Sestak’s gone from the high 20′s and low 30′s to the low 40′s. However, he’s not really eroding into Specter’s support. He’s picking up some undecided, but Specter’s not seeing big losses to match Sestak’s gains.
So, Joe’s “momentum” is limited to some gains, but few inroads.

As for who has the race, within 5 points. I’m calling it at 12.5% +/- 2.5% (so 10% to 15%) with Specter winning.

Geez, David, it gets really, really tiresome deconstructing this nonsense.

So what you’re saying here is that there’s some parallel between where we sit, two weeks from Primary Day, and where the Presidential race was immediately following the Republican Convention, two months before Election Day in 2008? Really, you’re trying to say that?

I really don’t expect any bump at all from the debate, because I doubt that it even registered with most Democrats in the state. The thing that’s moving the polls and the thing that is going to decide this Primary is advertising, and that battle is being won overwhelmingly by Sestak.

By the way, where do you get this talking point of yours that “we’ve seen this pattern before where Sestak gets a bump, then it fades.” You’ve seen that before, have you? Can you document that?
Because as far as I know, Joe has never been in a statewide race, never been in a contested primary and never run in a race that was being polled this closely. But I suppose you know differently.

Bruce-
The only parallel is your improper use of a straight trend line to say the race is at 5%, when the data clearly doesn’t support it.

I expected Joe to get a bump from the debate because people got to see him and might have found something they liked. People want to see the challenger stand toe-to-toe with the incumbent.

Bruce, we’ve seen the pattern in THIS statewide race. I gave you the link earlier:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_democratic_primary-1050.html
Sestak’s gaps have fluctuated from the 20′s to the teens and back again. Team Sestak jumped on Rasmussen’s numbers like a life raft as proof of Joe’s momentum and their effect on the RCP average.

Primary Election Day is Tuesday, May 18, 2010. Vote for Congressman Joe Sestak, our true Democrat, for the United States Senate. Thank you and have a great day.

Primary Election Day is Tuesday, May 18, 2010.

Vote for Senator Arlen Specter, the choice of our President Obama, for the United States Senate. Thank you and have a great day.
And and a better one in November, when Specter beats Toomey.

(see, George, two can play at that game. However, if the Sestak campaign is just looking to advertise here, they should buy advertising space on PA2010, rather than cheap-out)