Joe wins this race. Arlen being in office for decades and ending up in a dead heat days before the election does not bode well for him. There is no doubt that the Democrat will win the Democratic primary while Arlen will lose because of his longtime love affair with the GOP.

I copied this from my post last night in the other thread.

Final Muhlenberg shows race tied at 44%.

Here is my Google-Spreadsheet that combines the various polls, based on their margins of error. Enjoy!

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Ah5h1gW0CSv4dHg0LWdBSkpDUHVqckt0eFpXbXFHU3c&hl=en

I used 1/2 the margin of error as the standard deviation. I used Excel function NORMDIST to compute the normal distribution probabilities form Specter -10 to Specter +6.
I did not include the Suffolk Specter -9 column because it was far outside the range of the other polls. Rasmussen is 10 days old and an outlier as well, but I left it in.

The “Charts” sheet shows 3 charts. The first one shows all the different polls. The Quinnipiac poll is thinner and higher because of its smaller margin of error. The F&M poll is lower and wider due its large margin of error.
All the curves have the same area under them corresponding to a full 100% probability (though there is a slight cut-off on the edges).

The second chart is the average probabilities of the values of the first chart.

The third chart is the cumulative probabilities. The 50% mark occurs around Specter -1. But it would be around zero, without the Rasmussen number.

My point is this is showing a more weighted approach to adding up the polls. You can’t average Quinnipiac +2 (900LV) and F&M -2 (150LV) and get Zero=tie.

Anyway, the spreadsheet is read only. Feel free to download to your own computers as Excel and play around. I did include the Suffolk poll to the side. You could copy it from column N to G.
You can remove (clear) the RAS poll and see how that changes the results. Or, if Ras puts out one last poll, you can just change the Mean value.

I honestly wouldn’t be surprised by either result. I hate to make predictions on a close race like this, but I think Specter will probably pull it out. He will likely have a slight edge among seniors (the most reliable voters). He could get a boost from higher turnout in Philly for Anthony Williams. And, I also think Sestak is still too much of an unknown among Democratic voters across the state. I wouldn’t be shocked if Sestak won, either. But, Arlen just seems like the guy that refuses to go away (until November, that is).

Senator Sestak: At the risk of belaboring the obvious, allow me to observe that the outcome of this primary hinges on the two pivotal metropolitian areas in the Commonwealth. Senator Specter enjoys the support of major newspapers, high-ranking public officials, powerful interest groups and crucial demographic segments in these two heavily populated metro areas. Sestak has not made any inroads in the two vitally important and densely populated metro areas. There is no constituency in either of these metro areas that is fully committed to Sestak; by contrast, Senator Specter has bodies of voters (particularly ethnic minorities, senior citizens and labor union members) in these metro areas that are unwavering in their support of his candidacy. These polls (with their negligible samplings) reflect sentiments from across the state. But ultimately, the sentiments of the residents of the two chief metro areas will determine the outcome. Senator Specter has a commanding lead in these two metro areas, and more ballots will be cast for him as a result. What someone in Lock Haven, PA thinks is of no consequence in this instance.

Clamor about anti-incumbent fervor all you wish -Representative Sestak cannot prevail here.

joe sestak wins by 2 and wagner pulls off a long shot and wins

also mercer county will be a true battle ground this county will very much be a big part for sestak and wagner in there wins

Brent Wingard: You are indeed correct. Does anti-incumbent fervor exist? Perhaps. But this fervor does not necessarily signal a Sestak victory. Sestak has not articulated a clear vision for the future, and has not put forward any agenda whatsoever. Sestak is an unknown commodity to most primary voters – voters who are undoubtedly wondering aloud why no major newspaper, public official, interest group, etc., has endorsed him. If he is such a promising candidate, the typical primary voter will no doubt ask, why has he not be able to muster any support whatsoever among prominent people? If Specter is not truly committed to the Democratic Party, the primary voter will reason, would he really have been able to capture the overwhelming support of every crucial Democratic constituency?

The demographics of the Commonwealth – and common sense – dictate that Senator Specter will emerge victorious. And probably by a far greater margin than many suspect.

Justin: According to the 2000 Census, there were a mere 120,293 people residing in Mercer County, PA. That’s all.

THE POPULATION OF THE GREATER PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA IN 2008 WAS 5.8 MILLION – THE FIFTH LARGEST METRO AREA IN THE U.S.

I reiterate – what someone in Lock Haven, PA thinks is of no consequence. Senator Specter commands overwhelming support in the two densely populated metro areas, and he will win easily as a result.

It is quite amusing and entertaining to watch the angry haters continue spinning victory scenarios for the sinking Bushie Specter. They claim Joe is a bad candidate, an unknown candidate, and a loser in metropolitan areas. Meanwhile, he has surged in the polls to tie the Republican Specter.

Perhaps Democratic voters are more informed than the obsessive haters think.

JOE SESTAK IS A SUIT, NOTHING MORE. HE HAS NO RECORD OF SUBSTANCE, AND HE IS NOT TOO BRIGHT BASED ON DECISIONS IN THE HOUSE.

Light-n-Airy: What decisions in the House? Sestak was absent so frequently, he seldom was able to cast any votes, let alone implement legislation!

Senator Sestak: I concur – primary voters are more astute than pundits think. Precisely why they will cast their ballots for the venerable incumbent Senator Specter, and will reject Sestak, a charlatan who has accomplished nothing during his brief, undistinguished, unremarkable tenure in office. Pundits assume that anti-incumbent fervor is prevalent, and that it alone will determine the outcome. Primary voters, they reckon, will simply ignore endorsements from major newspapers, public officials, ward leaders, interest groups, etc., and thoughtlessly cast their ballots for a relative newcomer who has achieved nothing and adamantly refuses to disclose his military records. In other words, pundits (and perhaps Sestak himself) assume that primary voters will mindlessly turn a blind eye to the empirical facts. But they will not. Residents in the two densely populated metro areas do take heed when The Philadelphia Inquirer, The Philadelphia Daily News, etc., endorse a candidate. And they wonder aloud about the candidate who did not recieve such an endorsement. Residents in the two densely populated metro areas do take heed when office-holders and interest groups endorse a candidate. And they wonder aloud about the worthiness of the candidate who failed to recieve such an endorsement.

Senator Specter has pivotal constituencies (ethnic minorities, senior citizens, union members, etc.) in the two densely populated metro areas he can rely upon. Sestak has no constituencies in these densely populated areas that are fully committed to him. None whatsoever. He has not made any inroads in these urban areas (largely because he lacks the support of critical public officials and interest groups). The anti-incumbent fervor (which in not a compelling force in PA’s urban areas) being cited by pundits is simply not enough to ensure victory. It must be accompanied by enthusiastic support among key demographics in the two major urban centers (particularly when the weather is inclement).

These polls are illusory; they reflect the sentiments of prospective primary voters scattered across the state. Even if Sestak narrowly won every county in PA outside of the two major urban centers (which he obviously will not), he would still lose if Specter won by overwhelming margins in those urban areas (which Specter likely will). Again, the sentiments of an ill-informed primary voter in Lock Haven, PA are of no consequence here. It is what the denizens of the two densely populated metro areas think that is paramount. And Senator Specter commands overwhelming support in these two densely populated urban areas.

Specter wins by 3

Phily turn out<8%
David: Wear your galoshes and creepy guy rain coat.

Philadelphia turnout will be similar to other midterm primaries. This will hurt Williams.

As for Specter, there is no enthusiasm for him with core Democrats in Philly or anywhere else. Light turnout with a disproportionate number of Democratic base voters (as opposed to casual general election Democrats) hurts Specter all across the state. The thought that Democrats are excited by Specter and can’t wait to vote for him is pure political fantasy.

PREDICTIONS:

* May 18th, 2010: Arlen Specter wins the Democratic Senatorial nomination by 4 points.

* May 19th, 2010, early morning: Joe Sestak bitterly concedes, and complains that the entire “machine” was against him from the start, even though they “asked me to run.”

* Summer 2010: Joe Sestak still has not endorsed Arlen Specter, nor is he campaigning for any of the state rep candidates in the 7th district. He’s also ignoring Bryan Lentz, whom he’d just as soon throw off the stage if he thought it could get him the slot for his old seat back.

* October 2010: Joe’s “house” in Edgemont goes on the market. He’s notably missing from the district in all respects, and hasn’t extended any assistance to anyone running for office there on the Democratic ticket.

* November 2010: Arlen Specter defeats Pat Toomey by 5 points, and Bryan Lentz defeats Pat Meehan by 3 points.

* January 2011: ex-congressman Joe Sestak accepts a job as a defense consultant, sells his house in Edgemont, and nobody from the 7th congressional district ever hears from him or his mafioso posse again.

George you left out the part where joe and rick santorum become bffs…

Lots of hate and absurd charges posted here, as opposed to rational discussion about the issues or the election. Welcome to the last weekend before the primary.

One thing is beyond debate. This is a close race. The polls are consistent in finding that.

Very few, including myself, believed that Sestak could rise so rapidly in the polls. I am convinced that his rise is due at least as much to distrust/dislike of Specter as to voters embracing Sestak.

If that is true, then it seems unlikely that the undecideds will break in Specter’s favor. What new is there to learn about a 30 year incumbent?

If that’s so, then Specter has to get a higher proportion of his vote out than does Sestak.

Lee,

I’m curious, as a Sestak supporter, how do you rationalize his refusal to endorse (as Specter did) whomever wins the primary to beat Pat Toomey? I’m not engaging in name-calling, but this seems to validate what others have been saying about Sestak’s political machinations.

I understand the strategy of not conceding that you could possibly be defeated, but ultimately, Sestak and Specter are on the same team. (And yes, they are, they’re both Democrats now – Specter since 2009, Sestak since 2006.) It’s more than a little disturbing that Sestak seems unwilling to see the fight through the finish if he doesn’t win this battle.

I’d be interested to hear how you or other Sestak supporters would explain this.

Senator Sestak: Turnout in the two densely populated metropolitan areas does not have to be prodigious or unprecedented for Senator Specter to prevail. Specter commands overwhelming support among key demographics in the two densely populated areas – where most of the prospective primary voters reside. Sestak simply does not. There is no constituency in the two urban centers upon which Sestak can rely. Sestak does not enjoy support among senior citizens (who vote in large numbers) – Specter does. Sestak does not enjoy support among ethnic minorities (who will participate to a much greater extent than in times past, mobilized by the first ethnic minority Democratic President of the United States) – Specter does. Sestak does not enjoy widespread support among labor union members – Specter does. Sestak has no key demographic in the two densely populated metro areas that is fiercely loyal to his candidacy. And this will be his undoing. There is no ardor or enthusiasm for Sestak’s candidacy; precisely why there are no notable public figures or interest groups canvassing the two densely populated metro areas urging people to cast their ballots for him. Specter, on the other hand, has illustrious public figures and influential interest groups doing their utmost to marshal support in these two urban centers.

Earlier in Ambler, PA, Senator Specter approached a Sestak supporter who was protesting nearby. Many then looked on, taken aback, as the Sestak supporter warmly embraced the Senator. This microcosmic example demonstrates that the supposed anti-incumbent fervor upon which Sestak is depending is not particularly all-consuming or intense. Not enough to enable Sestak to prevail.

Matt M.: A burning question indeed. If Sestak is the so-called “true Democrat,” then why is he unprepared to make a commitment to the eventual nominee of the Democratic Party? Wouldn’t a staunch Democrat be prepared to make such a commitment? Yes – but a self-interested, self-serving charlatan would not.

George Brendt: Believe it or not, Sestak and his siblings would probably be tremendously relieved if events unfolded as you have predicted. Because the (political and legal) fate that actually awaits them in the aftermath of the primary (win or lose) will likely be far, far, less kind.

Hater: So Democrat seniors who have been voting against Specter for a very long time will now embrace him in large numbers? Urban turnout will miraculously surge in a midterm primary because of excitement for the Republican Specter? And union members will suddenly take marching orders from their bosses?

Enjoy your political wet dream while you can.

Senator Sestak – how do you explain Sestak’s refusal to take a position? I really would like to know how Sestak supporters rationalize this.

Didnt you guys Hear Specter Cancer is back and it is Terminal Why would anyone elect DEADMAN WALKING ?????????????

Matt-

Let’s be clear. Sestak didn’t refuse to endorse Specter if Specter wins. He said that he is not willing to contemplate losing the primary.

On the other hand, given Specter’s tenuous Democratic credentials, he HAD to say that he’d endorse the party nominee.

OMSCiB-

I find your comment to be offensive and ask that Dan remove it.

Lee – I’m sorry, but that’s just not a satisfying answer, and it really doesn’t address the elephant in the room.

What Sestak did in his response to Candy Crowley’s twice-asked question was refuse to commit himself to supporting Specter in the event that Specter wins on Tuesday. Even if Specter “HAD” to say it as you suggest (and I concede that), Sestak could have called his bluff and done the same thing. It would have earned him points, especially among undecided Democratic voters.

Lee-
Sestak himself referred to Specter as “a dead man walking”.

So, if want to condemn that kind of rhetoric, condemn Sestak.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hRLeivXVE_840fD7Tlr0coHPlE1QD9FO7TEO0
“We can’t have a dead man walking,” Sestak told reporters after the rally attended by dozens of supporters.

Patient SESTAK #8

The Diagnosis: Poor Command Climate!
: Uncontrolable LIEING!
: TEA PARTY MEMBER!

Causes: Slept every day within 30 feet of an
aircraft carriers NUCLEAR REACTER for one
too many years!
: OUT TO SEA TOO LONG!

Symptoms: Severely damaged DNA (you can figure
that out)
: Severe Chromosome DAMAGE!
; BRAIN DAMAGE!
: DNA and Chromosome of offspring damaged!
: Does not tend to constituents as
he claims he does!
: Two terms in Congress and going for
more = CAREER POLITICIAN!
: They say Section 8 = SIGMOID COLON!
: Constantly referrs to the military
way when speaking and must be reminded
on an hourly basis he is a civilian on
behalf of civilians, AND YES SENATOR
ARLEN SPECTER OUT RANKS HIM NOW!
: Condition worsening because he can not
COMPETE OR COMPARE to Senator Specter.

PROTOCHOL: Prozac, Wellbutrin & Olanzapine to be
all taken together at the same time,
but he is probaly already taking them!
: Not fit for office, Walmart workers
are treated better than his!
: Plenty of rest and he is going to
get it TUESDAY and be politically
permantly DRYDOCKED!
* I’ll bet Sestak has toy boats in his bath tub!

It looks like the MILITARY RECORDS have been partially compromised!

WAGNER FOR GOVERNOR!