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In Pike vs. Trivedi, who’s really more electable?
Even as they agree their contentious 6th District primary is all about beating Jim Gerlach, Democrats Doug Pike and Manan Trivedi have increasingly been making the argument that each of them is more electable against the incumbent. So who really is the better candidate to carry the Democratic banner into November?
It’s a good question, political insiders and analysts say.
“Who is going to be able to mount a better campaign against Jim Gerlach is really tough to say,” West Chester University political science professor John J. Kennedy said. “Both candidates are big question marks.”
In conversations with party insiders, the candidates have made their pitches clear. Pike, a former Inquirer editorial writer has the resources and political organization, having already poured a million bucks into his own campaign. Trivedi has the profile, as a doctor and Iraq War veteran who hails from the Berks County part of the district where Democrats have lost the district for years. It’s partly that profile that eventually led so much of the local Democratic Party to line up behind Trivedi when he got into the race months after Pike, even as Pike has retained the vast majority of the labor support and a $1-million financial advantage that will be difficult to overcome.
Though several observers hesitated to say definitively who is the better candidate—each has strengths and weaknesses—Republicans are almost unanimous in saying they’d rather face Pike. In interviews and informal conversations over the last few months, GOP insiders have said Pike, a former Inquirer editorial writer, would be much easier to paint as a liberal out of touch with the suburban Philadelphia district. Trivedi, these Republicans say, is a more complete package.
“That’s the kind of guy you don’t want to run against,” one GOP insider told pa2010.com. “It’s plain to me to see why he’s come from nowhere.”
A Republican close to Gerlach said Pike would be an easy target as the son of a former Long Island congressman who only moved to the district months before declaring his candidacy—not to mention the potential treasure trove of opposition research to be found within his years of opinion writing.
“The baggage that he brings is pretty obvious,” the Republican said.
Republicans are hardly fretting either way, as even some Democrats doubt the seat in which they’ve been stymied for years is truly winnable in a harsh political climate for Democrats. Gerlach’s campaign recently called the Democratic primary “a MoveOn.org beauty pageant.”
In interviews, both candidates pitched their November potential. Trivedi emphasized his Berks County base and the fact that he’s a veteran in a district with 60,000 veterans.
“All polling data show that veterans will vote for veterans, regardless of party,” Trivedi said.
“We need to electrify the base,” he added. “Getting Democrats to vote is the problem.”
Pike talked about his public policy expertise, continuing to position himself as an advocate for change while at The Inquirer.
“On the editorial page, we were fighting for people who’ve gotten the short end of the stick,” he said.
Pike also cited his experience as president and chairman of the board at South Oaks Hospital, a Long Island psychiatric hospital.
“I have led a business and balanced budgets,” he said.
And Pike downplayed the idea that his body of writing would be vulnerability.
“[Gerlach] will smear me, no question, but we will have the resources to explain how he’s distorting me and my record,” he said.
Those “resources”—read, money—are a key factor, one Pike has emphasized to Democrats who are still on the fence. In the interview, Pike did not say how much more of his own money he would put into the race. Republicans at the national level are expected to spend heavily in the district to defend Gerlach, as they have in previous cycles. And despite emptying his campaign coffers to fund his aborted run for governor, Gerlach is quickly rebuilding them, having raised half-a-million dollars in the first three months of this year.
State AFL-CIO secretary-treasurer Rick Bloomingdale, the organization’s incoming president, acknowledged that Pike’s financial edge is part of the reason the umbrella labor group endorsed him. He also said Pike showed his willingness and ability to reach out to voters all over the diverse district, which includes parts of Berks, Chester and Montgomery counties.
“He had a real understanding of a field operation,” Bloomingdale said. “Even if he didn’t have as much money as he does, what we don’t want to see is someone getting beat because he doesn’t understand how to run a better field operation.”
Trivedi campaign manager Ed Niles said money doesn’t concern him. The campaign, he said, is reaching out to groups that aren’t likely to contribute cash until after the primary, include doctors’ groups, veterans; groups and the Indian-American community, which isn’t represented in Congress.
“We worry very little about raising money after the primary,” Niles said. “Let’s face it. Doug’s not Michael Bloomberg rich.”
Franklin & Marshall College pollster G. Terry Madonna said that no matter who wins the May 18 primary, the victor is going to have a tough road against Gerlach. The incumbent prevailed the past two cycles during wave years for the Democrats, surviving the worst Republican climates since Watergate.
Kathi Cozzone, a Chester County commissioner who is supporting Trivedi, said he would overcome the money gap after the primary and win over the public with his personal history.
“Manan has an incredible story that really appeals to people and he’s done a lot in his young life,” Cozzone said. “I think once voters have a chance to get to know him, that’s when they’ll make their decision.”
Dan Hirschhorn contributed reporting.
May 3, 2010 at 9:45 am
Tags: Doug Pike, Jim Gerlach, Manan Trivedi, PA-6
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Bruce Bailey
May 3rd, 2010
Bottom line: Trivedi is going to win the primary, so it really doesn’t matter what kind of organization or how much money Pike has. Trivedi is the endorsed candidate in Montgomery & Chester counties, and he comes from Berks. No matter how savvy his organization may be, Pike simply can’t make up for not being on sample ballots in more than 2/3 of the district.
Gerlach may have to go as negative as Arlen Specter in order to re-win this seat. I’m sure he’s capable of it, too.
idiots
May 3rd, 2010
except no one knows who Trivedi is…
mannyt
May 3rd, 2010
t-minus 5….4….3….2….1.. until Adam B comes on here and kisses Trivedi’s ass for an hour and slanders Pike.
Shawn
May 3rd, 2010
Bruce,
Two quick points, Pike won’t be left off the ballots. And it is sad to say, but in the end Pike will be on TV, he will have name ID and Chester County won’t vote for someone they don’t know named Manan Trivedi, sad, but true.
That all being said County endorsements are so insignificant and I wish you people would realize that.
Shawn
May 3rd, 2010
Oh and Dan Hirschhorn .. Why don’t you just endorse Trivedi or better yet you should be the baby’s godfather! Way to blatantly not be unbiased.
Bruce Bailey
May 3rd, 2010
Idi – And people know who Pike is? If people know Pike they know Trivedi and vice versa. Otherwise, they know neither.
Shawn – Pike will most certainly be left off the sample ballots that are distributed by committee members and volunteers at all polls in Montco and Chester. Don’t know how Berks is working it. That’s why county endorsements are significant.
And your racist argument about Manan’s name? They said that about a candidate named Barack Obama, too.
mannyt
May 3rd, 2010
Shawn- Dan didn’t write this, just to be fair.
Bruce- and that name was a factor to an extent, until Obama used his resources “read-money” to explain who he was. How is Manan Trivedi going to do that? And while Pike won’t be on the sample ballot I can’t imagine he won’t have people out handing out his info. He has loads of dough and can get people out working for him. And of course the GOP is going to say Pike is the one they want to face, this is total gamesmanship. THEY KNOW they’ll walk allllll over Trivedi. He has 100,000 on hand and will spend over half on the primary. That means he goes head to head with Gerlach with something like 40-50k. Come on….no way do the GOP believe Pike is the easier path.
Bruce Bailey
May 3rd, 2010
As I think I’ve said before, I’m not in the 6th but many of the towns in Montco Area 4 are, so I’ve had a chance to meet both men, listen to them on the stump and form an opinion.
I’ve never seen such a difference between two candidates. Trivedi has the ability to connect and to make his standard “who I am and what I believe” speech come off more like a conversation. He is a powerful and magnetic speaker.
Pike, on the other hand, comes off as who he is – a very smart journalist. Not to generalize, but journalists tend to present their best personalities in print. In person, they can be tough to get to know, a little lacking in charm. And frankly, even though he’s a good guy from what I can see and hear, Doug Pike never looks comfortable talking to people. And for a politician, that’s a problem.
There is no doubt that Manan is the better candidate for Dems in the 6th. And once the primary is over, the money is going to come pouring in. Everybody wants to see Jim Gerlach get beat.
the straight talk
May 3rd, 2010
Both are losers. If Democrats couldn’t beat Gerlach in very heavy DEMOCRAT years – including outspending him in 2006 – remember Lois Murphy had 3 times what Doug Pike has now, they won’t come close this year.
This is all a stupid exercise.
Dan Hirschhorn
May 3rd, 2010
Hey Shawn (and everyone else),
I really try to avoid chiming in here on charges of bias since refuting them is so often an impossible, lost cause. But today I can’t resist.
Partisans on all sides of this race will surely find it difficult to believe, but at various times during this campaign, I have been accused of being biased in favor of Jim Gerlach, Doug Pike, Curt Schroder, Manan Trivedi and Steven Welch.
Obviously all of those can’t be true, and the fact is none of them are.
And yes, as mannyt points out, this story was written by our excellent new correspondent Rebecca VanderMeullen. Between reporting from the two of us, it’s far more deeply sourced than just the number of quotes would indicate. She did a great job with it.
I don’t have a horse in this race, and neither does Rebecca or any of our other reporters.
But hey, being called biased comes with the territory here. So I’ll live.
Thanks for reading.
Dan Hirschhorn
Bruce Bailey
May 3rd, 2010
Incidentally, re: committee members & the Montgomery Co. endorsement —
I hope that Trivedi supporters in Montco are keeping track of committee members who still support or actively work for Pike.
Under Montco rules, those committee people should be taking a leave of absence until after the primary. Same goes for anyone on the committee actively supporting or working for Onorato, Wagner or Williams in the gov’s race.
This rule is the reason we didn’t get to vote for a Senate endorsement, and it should be strictly enforced.
Somehow, I have my doubts that it will be.
Where are you?
May 3rd, 2010
Grassrootspa is reporting the Pike mailer is out. Hitting Gerlach on ties to Wall St.
Adam B.
May 4th, 2010
Falsely accusing me of having slandered Pike is, of course, itself slanderous.
Murph
May 4th, 2010
Facts–Manan Trivedi will win. The Democratic Party committeepersons know “electability,” and they endorsed Manan with more than 70% of the vote at their respective endorsement conventions in Montco and Chesco. Berks does not endorse and would have overwhelmingly supported its hometown candidate.
Manan Trivedi, an Iraq war veteran, Berks County born and raised, and a physician has the story and the substance to win. He has the committed, grassroots volunteers. He connects with the voters. They will turn out for Manan. It’s no wonder that the R’s prefer Manan’s opponent.
Dead Cats: Plots 05/05/10, (2)53 James Brody » Dead Cats & Clippings -
May 5th, 2010
[...] “Pa2010 has a good piece comparing the electability of Manan Trivedi and Doug Pike. Both are formidab…. Manan Trivedi has a compelling bio and the support of Democratic Political Establishment; Doug Pike has a million dollars in the bank and solid labor support. Neither seem to know it is a “Republican year”. [...]
Manan Is a Muslim
May 5th, 2010
Why would we want to Elect a Muslim havnt they done enough damage here in the USA