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Five Tuesday X-Factors
Millions have been spent, hundreds of campaign miles have been traversed, and now, the day has arrived.
Here are five dynamics that could prove to be political X-Factors in Tuesday’s Pennsylvania primaries.
1. Rain, rain, go away
While hardly a downpour, it was raining lightly throughout the morning in the Philadelphia region, and one forecast was calling for up to an inch throughout the day. Arlen Specter needs a big turnout in the city to boost his chances in the tight Democratic Senate primary. There were sporadic reports of light turnout, though it was far too early to draw any conclusions. But early on, the elements were already working against Specter.
2. Local GOP machinery
In at least a few Republican House primaries, there are candidates with the perceived party backing who haven’t exactly separated themselves from the pack—folks like Mary Beth Buchanan in the 4th, Tom Marino in the 10th and Dave Argall in the 17th. A strong ground game boosted by local party officials is all these people need to push them over the finish line against lesser-known opponents. Will that machinery be there? And will enough voters amenable to that persuasion turn out on a rainy day that lacks competitive statewide primaries for their party?
3. Come outside, DelCo
Just like Arlen Specter needs a big Philly turnout, Joe Sestak needs a massive turnout in his home base of Delaware County, and he needs the county to go overwhelmingly for him. The suburban county is hardly a deep pool of Democratic votes, but in a close race, Sestak pretty much needs each and every one of them to pull the lever for him. Any dissatisfaction with the congressman at home could spell trouble.
4. Feeling motivated?
In House primaries throughout the state, there are better-funded candidates looking to cruise, but they face challengers who inspire excitement in their respective party’s base. Will conservatives be motivated to come out in force for 8th District Republican Gloria Carlineo over Mike Fitzpatrick? What about in the 3rd District, where some conservatives adore Tea Party activist Clayton Grabb over heavy spenders Paul Huber and Mike Kelly? In the 6th District Democratic primary, will the enthusiasm Manan Trivedi has inspired among party activists be enough to overcome Doug Pike’s superior media blitz?
5. Make a decision
A full quarter of likely Democratic voters were undecided in the race for governor when they woke up Tuesday. These people will almost surely hold off on their decision until the privacy of the voting booth sets in. They are the ultimate and most powerful X-Factors.
May 18, 2010 at 11:30 am
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David Diano
May 18th, 2010
Dan-
There are just under 160,000 “active” registered Dems in Delco. Primary turnout has been historically weak, and the rain won’t help. I’m guessing maybe 40,000 show up. Not all will vote for the Senate race (ie. under-vote) So, I’m guessing between 35,000 and 40,000 votes cast. I’ll use 36,000 for this estimate. Let’s say that Sestak does 75%-25%. That’s 27,000 for him and 9,000 for Specter (a net for 18,000 votes for Sestak in Delco). If it’s 60%-40%, then Sestak gains only a little over 7,000. A 20-point spread seems a tad more realistic than a 50-point spread.
By contrast, Philly as 700,000 active Dems. If around 14%-15% turn out, that’s 100,000 voters. If Specter wins 60%-40% in Philly, that’s 20,000 net votes for him.
I think Montgomery will be pretty close.
I don’t have any feel for the western party of the state, nor how the recent gun issue will play out there.
Put The Fork in Snarlin He is done
May 18th, 2010
Bye Bye Snarlin
Where are the Election Night Parties for Arlen and Sestake Tonight
May 18th, 2010
Does anyone Know ?
Dan Hirschhorn
May 18th, 2010
Senator Specter’s party is at the Sheraton at 17th and Race in Philly.
Congressman Sestak’s party is at Valley Forge Military Academy in Wayne.
We’ll have reporters at both locations.
Dan Hirschhorn
rplinpa
May 18th, 2010
Details for all of Sestak’s events tonight are below:
Election Night Gathering Details:
Location: Valley Forge Military Academy & College
Mellon Hall
1001 Eagle Road
Wayne, PA 19087
Date: Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Time: Doors open at 7:00pm
Directions: See below
Parking: Parking is available in the General Lot on Radnor Street Road
(adjacent to the football field). Parking is not permitted on Fariston Road at anytime.
If you cannot make it to our get together, please join us at other election night gatherings throughout the state:
Erie County
Sacred Hart Ushers Club
716 West 26th St
Erie PA 16508
Allegheny County
Sestak Campaign Office
4326 Butler Street
Pittsburgh, PA 15201
Lehigh Valley
540 Democratic Club
540 N. New Street.,
Bethleham, PA 18018
Dauphin County
McGrath’s Pub
202 Locust Street
Harrisburg, PA 17101
rplinpa
May 18th, 2010
I hear a constant refrain in the “T”: Specter has to go. Joe should win the center of the state by a nice margin. My understanding is Arlin is pretty unpopular in Pittsburgh and the rest of Western PA. Low Philly turnout and it’s over for Specter.
Adam S.
May 18th, 2010
I disagree, David. I think Specter loses Montco and Chesco by good amounts.
PGH
May 18th, 2010
I’ve been to 4 polls in Pittsburgh’s East End today and up and down a number of streets. Sestak signs are everywhere, but none for Specter.
JoeMontco
May 18th, 2010
I am working the polls in eastern Montco. Not a Specter sign anywhere. No Specter lit. All Sestak all the time. A few Specter voters, though mostly Sestak.
flynnbw
May 18th, 2010
It’ll be interesting to see the Senate numbers out of the 12th District — since that’s bound to have high(er) turnout than the rest of the state.
Though I would think neither of the candidates play particularly well there, I’d give a slight edge to Sen. Specter, since it’s such a union-heavy district. Sen. Specter was definitely right to play up Rep. Sestak’s “F” rating from the NRA there though.
We’ll find out soon enough.
David Diano
May 18th, 2010
I wonder what arguments are being made in the alternate universe, where it didn’t rain?
Sestak needs huge turnout in Delco. Even though Sestak will do well in Delco compared to Specter, I don’t think Joe has “energized” turnout.