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Conklin and Saidel locked in too-close-to-call Lt. Gov. race
PHILADELPHIA—It wasn’t quite the race they were expecting.
Supporters of former Philadelphia City Controller Jonathan Saidel came to the Warwick Hotel here Tuesday thinking a victory party was a sure thing. Saidel was the endorsed party candidate, enjoyed a huge financial advantage and the support of labor organizations far and wide.
But things weren’t that simple.
By the end of the night, Saidel and state Representative Scott Conklin (D-Centre) were locked in a surprisingly close contest in the Democratic race for Lieutenant Governor. Conklin was holding a lead of one-half a percentage point—4,654 votes—and after his supporters waited hours for Saidel to show, he ended up sending them home without a celebration. Conklin could not immediately be reached for comment late Tuesday night. Saidel’s campaign was hoping votes that had yet to be tallied in Philadelphia would put him over the edge (68 of 1,684 precincts had yet to be included in the final tally).
It was a shocking turn of events for a campaign that political watchers had overwhelmingly assumed would cruise across the finish line.
“Whatever happens, happens,” Saidel told supporters. “It’s a democracy, people have the right to cast their ballots for anyone they choose. It’s the greatest process in the world, I’m honored to be part of it and I will continue to be part of it either as a candidate in the fall or certainly as a citizen who is involved in our great Democratic Party.”
The third candidate in the race, retired Commonwealth Court Judge Doris Smith-Ribner, was listed first on the ballot, and Saidel campaign insiders were pegging the surprising circumstances on the possibility that many straight-ticket Democratic voters may have backed her without much thought—a contention with which her campaign would surely quibble. Early Wednesday morning, it remained unclear exactly what had gone wrong for the campaign. Conklin had raised little money for the race and had campaigned only recently, while also seeking reelection to his state House seat.
The supporters and staffers at the Warwick here began the night in expectation of a celebration. Early returns showed Saidel ahead by a comfortable margin, and with his campaign already pivoting to prepare for its role in the general election, there didn’t seem to be much reason to doubt the outcome of the primary. A stage and podium were set for Saidel’s victory speech, and the atmosphere was relaxed and satisfied, a group of friends and supporters happy with the work of the primary campaign behind them.
As the returns continued to come in statewide, the tone of the room changed. With 35 percent of districts reporting, Conklin overtook Saidel in the polls by a margin of less than 1 percent. As counties around the state continued to send in their returns, the candidates traded the lead several times, neither ever holding an advantage beyond a few percentage points. With a suddenly tight race on their hands, Saidel’s supporters hunkered down for a long evening.
As tired supporters filed out, Saidel campaign aide Marty Marks summed up the night: “It’s not done yet.”
See a video clip of Saidel’s speech to supporters below.
May 19, 2010 at 6:36 am
Tags: Doris Smith-Ribner, Jonathan Saidel, Lt. Gov., Scott Conklin
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Brett
May 19th, 2010
Bye Bye Jonathan and take your 500k corruption influence money and retire, BOOOOO Saidel
Baffled by BS
May 19th, 2010
Really guys stop the childish shit, please. Brett you are doing a disservice to your candidate, and “Terri” aka Marty Marks, could you be any more repulsive?
Seriously, this article is very telling about not only the lack of understanding about Democratic politics in this state, but the incompetence of Marty Marks. This should have been a slam dunk for Saidel. He did a wonderful job of cutting off the money for Conklin, but it was Marty Marks and his arrogance that cost Saidel this race.
How can you ignore the polling? In fact, Marks made the statement on another site that Conklin should fire his pollster. I know Conklin’s pollster, and he is bar none the best in the state. Conklin knew that he had 30% out of the gate. Contrary to the myth that has been presented multiple time here on this site, the 5 counties do not account for “solid 40% of the Democratic Primary vote” What is even worse is that Saidel’s website was claiming that the southeast accounted for 60% of the total primary vote as late as Tuesday morning. It is this inherent lack of understanding of Pennsylvania Politics, that cost Saidel and lead pundits and blog sites to think this race was in the bag.
PA 2010 bears nearly as much responsibility as the talking heads. Every story relating to this race was flat out biased. How can you not put a story up when the 2 largest newspapers in the state endorse Conklin? Also every mention of Conklin on this site is very shortly followed by some variation on “Saidel is the overwhelming favorite”. Dan, read what you wrote above, you have either just been glassy eyed over Saidel, or you really do not understand Democratic Politics in this state.
Even with Conklin starting with 30% out of the gate, his campaign really dropped the ball. His vote total should have been in the high 340s. He did not do a good job of turnout in his base counties or making sure that those that did turnout actually voted down ballot. If Conklin holds on today, he can count himself lucky.
Hopefully this will be the end of Marty Marks high paid political consulting career, but I am probably wrong. I though the same thing last years when he was responsible for 4 statewide judicial candidates losing miserably due to his arrogance and lack of political understanding. Please Marty if you are passionate about getting Democrats elected, then find a new career path. You absence from the consulting world will be the biggest boost the Democratic party has seen since Bush’s Katrina flyover.
Also on last comment, the stupid name calling has to stop. you guys are not working for candidates for high school class president. When you engage in this that is exactly what you look like. And Dan, if you really want to know what the score is in Democratic Politics, you have my email address.
Brett
May 19th, 2010
Hey Baffled by BS
F@#$$ You, a#@$$#@ How’s that for childesh, Saidel took 500,000 of influence peddling money while serving in office, HE should be in jail for 10 years, so go lecture some one else, how about an elementary school class. Mind your own business.
David Diano
May 19th, 2010
I think Saidel’s problem was that he didn’t seem to take the race that seriously. He acted like he just expected a high Philly result to carry him, and would spend most of the time at events cracking jokes in his own political stand-up routine.
Baffled by BS
May 19th, 2010
While I don’t usually agree with David, he is right. His campaign could have used somebody on staff who actually understands turnout projections and vote goals. David, you would have been an asset to Saidel’s campaign, unlike the liability that Marty Marks was.
Brett
May 19th, 2010
With a name like Marty Marks, how can you go right, M & M, go get a hot dog and ruminate.