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Arlen Specter, Anthony Williams, and the need for high black turnout

When polls open next Tuesday, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Anthony Williams will no doubt be watching Philadelphia closely, hoping that enough has been done to turnout the high number of black voters he needs to narrow what remains a yawning gap against primary rival Dan Onorato.

But if there’s one person who has even more riding on that turnout, it’s Senator Arlen Specter.

The Republican-turned-Democrat has long commanded strong support from within the city’s black community. He faces a far closer nominating contest than Williams does—at least for now. And on primary day, the combination of Specter, Williams, and former City Controller Jonathan Saidel—a candidate for Lieutenant Governor who also enjoys solid backing from black voters—just might prove a potent enough combination to boost turnout in the city far beyond what pollsters anticipate.

And Specter will need it—polls increasingly show him tied or trialing primary opponent Joe Sestak, and many of those polls are counting on a relatively low black turnout (the Muhlenberg College tracking poll, for example, predicts low black turnout by not including those who cast ballots for the first time in 2008). That means turning out black voters is a high-stakes proposition for Specter.

“The African-American vote in Philadelphia—it matters,” said one political insider familiar with the history of black voter turnout. “If you’re 10 percent down, it matters. But if you’re 30 percent down, does it really matter? But if Williams can drive up the vote enough to come out for him, and thus drive up the vote for Specter, that could make a difference.”

For Specter, winning the majority of black voters is about as a safe a bet as he has at this moment of political vulnerability. He’s cinched important endorsements from local black leaders, ranging from the Philadelphia Black Clergy to Mayor Michael Michael Nutter and Congressman Chaka Fattah.

“There is a good and strong feeling about Arlen Specter in the African-American community,” said Robert W. Bogle, president and CEO of the Philadelphia Tribune, the region’s largest newspaper catering to a black audience. “Specter is going to have to get this voting block out if he wants to win Philadelphia and win Pennsylvania.”

The stakes have grown larger in recent days as the race has tightened. Black voters make up about a fifth of the Democratic electorate statewide, and about 60 percent of those voters are in Philadelphia. A good turnout in the city could tilt the race in Specter’s favor. The same big turnout could get Williams closer, if not over the edge.

The biggest challenge—for both Specter and Williams—will be physically bringing those voters out to the ballot box. Historically, turnout in Philadelphia has been weak for midterm election years, and even more so in primary elections.

Comparing primary and general election turnouts can lead to misleading conclusions. Nevertheless, data from recent years suggest that voter turnout drops disproportionately more in predominately black neighborhoods in midterm elections. For example, in the 2004 presidential election, John Kerry captured around 540,000 Democratic votes in Philadelphia. More than 53 percent of those—approximately 300,000—came from predominately black wards. But in the 2006 gubernatorial race, the number of Democrats voting for Ed Rendell dropped to 372,000, with less than 48 percent of those votes coming from the same wards.

“The real question that I always have is turnout,” said longtime Franklin & Marshall College pollster G. Terry Madonna. “A larger turnout in the city is more likely to favor Arlen. It would be extraordinarily helpful.”

A solid 40 percent of the state’s Democratic voters reside in the five-county Philadelphia region, so Specter could pull off a win relying on the city and pockets of support from the suburbs, Madonna said. But the city’s turnout in last fall’s judicial elections was a dismal 11 percent. If Williams’ candidacy can ratchet up the excitement, it will surely serve to help Specter.

“I think [Williams] added heartbeat and sizzle to the race,” Madonna said. “Williams could indirectly, by a substantial African-American support, help Specter. That’s not a crazy scenario.”

Both campaigns are doing everything they can to mobilize their constituents in the city. Specter has much more in the way of an institutionalized field operation, but both candidates are counting on local party boss Bob Brady to mobilize voters throughout the seat. Party leaders from disparate factions, including Brady, have been lining up behind Williams. The state Senator has been endorsed by Brady, Nutter, District Attorney Seth Williams and numerous members of City Council. If Williams is known for anything beyond his west Philadelphia district, it’s for his name—he’s the son for the late Hardy Williams, the patriarch of black politics in the city.

But after entering the race late, some are questioning whether Williams has enough time to mobilize black voters.

“Tony Williams has the right message, whether he has the time is the question,” said Bogle, who was pessimistic about seeing a strong turnout this season. “I’m not aware of anything that’s occurred that will energize voters this election cycle, whether they be white, black, green or purple.”

Specter campaign manager manager Christopher Nicholas said the campaign is focused on reaching out to supporters in the city and reminding them of Specter’s long relationships with the black community.

“Now it’s time to really rally the troops,” he said.

Though it became clear this week that President Obama will not make another visit to the city to campaign for Specter before Tuesday, Specter’s campaign has done plenty to pump up the black vote, airing commercials featuring the president on radio stations that target black audiences and a new TV ad that also highlights Obama’s support for Specter.

Williams campaign spokesman Mark Nevins said that while Philadelphia turnout is key, the campaign is not relying on a single demographic.

“Obviously a large Philadelphia turnout operation is important to us, because it’s got the most votes and it’s our hometown,” he said. “We want to create an insurmountable lead there, but we’re also looking to do well in Pittsburgh, Harrisburg and the rest of the state. A large African-American turnout benefits our race, but I don’t think we can rely on that alone.” And while he acknowledged that turnout for Williams might benefit Specter, he said there has not been any formal coordination between the campaigns—shooting down a recent conspiracy theory favored by some political junkies.

Sestak has been tenacious in his efforts to cut into the constituency, but one Philadelphia political insider said that, besides strength in a few of the more independent Center City wards, Sestak has not gained much traction in other parts of the city.

“If I was Sestak,” this insider said, “and I was running against Specter, I would have spent more time early on in the southeast, making inroads.”

Sestak campaign spokesman Jonathon Dworkin said that the Sestak has been working hard to reach out to the black community.

“They’re responding to the same message that Pennsylvanians are responding to across the Commonwealth,” Dworkin said in a statement. “It’s time to move past the failed Republican policies of Arlen Specter and George Bush that say what’s good for those at the top will be best for our country and put our focus back on strengthening our communities and working families.”

share001btn Arlen Specter, Anthony Williams, and the need for high black turnout

May 12, 2010 at 11:30 pm

--Amy Brisson

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  1. GOPHAWK

    May 12th, 2010

    As I said before, an interesting dilemna for Fast Eddie Spendell. Does he pull votes for his old boss, Arlen Specter, or does he squash voting to help his chosen successor Beer Tax Dan?

  2. Bruce Bailey

    May 12th, 2010

    I’m not sure where this meme about Philly voters, and especially African American voters, loving Arlen got started, but I’m calling it a crock.

    Six years ago in the general election, with Joe Hoeffel running a quiet and underfunded campaign, here’s what the Philadelphia breakdown was in the general:

    Specter: 181,922 (28.4%)
    Hoeffel: 451,901 (70.5%)

    Let’s compare that to the Philadelphia returns in the Presidential race that year:

    Bush: 130,099 (19.3%)
    Kerry: 542,205 (80.4%)

    So Specter ran about 10 points higher than Bush. That’s a nice pickup, but it’s not huge.

    With Bob Brady, Michael Nutter and Ed Rendell putting the entire Philly machine behind Specter, he will definitely run well in the city next Tuesday. But will it be overwhelming and enough to power him to statewide victory?

    Nope. It will not.

    The reality is that many Philadelphia Democrats, just like those of us statewide, are looking forward to defeating this Republican albatross next week.

  3. Specter is History

    May 12th, 2010

    The Democrats must be INSANE to support a Cantankerous creep like Specter especially since he still thinks he is running in the Republican Primary

  4. GB

    May 12th, 2010

    Specter may not be the jolliest man around, but he is, by eons, the better choice against Joe Sestak. We in the 7th district had high hopes for this man in 2006, and he’s spurned us for the advancement of his own career time and time again.

    Consider the following:

    * For most of his race in 2006, he didn’t own a home in the 7th district. Rather, his domicile was in the Northern Virginia suburbs.

    * He treats his staffers with a near-criminal disregard for the welfare, requires them to work fourteen hour days (including weekends) under the guise that “change takes hard work.” By the way, this “change” was his aspired change from the House to the Senate.

    * He is forcing the Democratic Party to spend millions of much-needed funds for the general election in a primary race that serves NOBODY’S interests but Joe Sestak’s.

    * Everyone with a sense of perspective in the 7th district knows what a chameleon and sell-out this man is. He has the WORST ATTENDANCE RECORD of any member of the PA delegation, both preceding and before he declared his candidacy. Why? Because being a congressman conflicts with pursuing a senate seat, and obviously the latter should prevail.

    * He touts his military record (nothing to poo-poo’ed), but turns red in the face when anyone legitimately questions the suspicious circumstances surrounding his departure. You can’t have it both ways, Joe. Especially since anyone who’s worked for you will is inclined to believe that the accusations are true.

    Specter is not an avuncular, happy-hearted liberal. He has, however, been a tireless advocate for the people of this state. His record deserves our vote.

  5. Bruce Bailey

    May 12th, 2010

    GB – Stop the propaganda. Speak for yourself if you want to, but this “everyone in the 7th” business is just so much fertilzer and your talking points here are items that have been thoroughly debunked, not just this year but going all the way back to the race against Curt Weldon.

    I wouldn’t be surprised to find you’re one of the disgruntled Weldonites that have been trying to get some revenge on Sestak throughout this campaign.

  6. willy

    May 12th, 2010

    santorum oops I mean sestak still doesn’t live in pa!

  7. GB

    May 12th, 2010

    Bruce – no propaganda here, and nothing I’ve said has been “thoroughly debunked.” I suppose you’re a 7th resident who’s loyalty to Sestak leaves you unperturbed by the fact that the party must spend double, if not more, of its already scarce resources in this state because being our congressman wasn’t good enough for Sestak.

    I voted for Sestak twice, and with much enthusiasm. It wasn’t until he declared for the Senate race that I, and many others in our district, realized what he is truly after.

  8. bill healy

    May 12th, 2010

    I live in the 7th and Joe commands overwhlming support from the Democratic party here. There are the occasioal malcontents who think Joe should just stay in the house and resent it that he would have any ambitions for higher office. I fully expected him to run for the Senate this year. Who would think that someone who already rose to the top in the U.S. Navy wouldn’t have ambition? Bryan Lentz is a fine candidate to succeed Joe in the Congress represneting the 7th.

  9. bill healy

    May 12th, 2010

    I live in the 7th and Joe commands overwhelming support from the Democratic party here (he is the endorsed candidate here). There are the occasioal malcontents (GB,DD) who think Joe should just stay in the house and resent it that he would have any ambitions for higher office. I fully expected him to run for the Senate this year. Who would think that someone who already rose to the top in the U.S. Navy wouldn’t have ambition? Bryan Lentz is a fine candidate to succeed Joe in the Congress represneting the 7th.

  10. Cindy Williams

    May 12th, 2010

    Why does it have to be the “African American” vote? Why can’t it just be Americans voting? That’s the problem with this country. Inner city African Americans have done so well blindly voting for Democrats haven’t they? Just take a look at Detroit! They need to start thinking independently don’t just into the booth and automatically pull the ‘D” lever. Think about it!

  11. Bruce Bailey

    May 12th, 2010

    I am happy and proud that Joe chose to be the one to stand up against Specter and the bunk that our leadership was trying to force-feed state Democrats.

    There’s always a cost when you stand up for what’s right. I am certain that every Sestak supporter will do whatever they can to make sure that Joe’s campaign this fall is fully funded, so that he can fight toe-to-toe with radical-right fringe candidate Pat Toomey.

    In defeat, maybe Arlen Specter can show us all what a truly great Democrat he has become and donate some of his leftover warchest to Sestak’s general election campaign.

  12. GB

    May 12th, 2010

    Bryan Lentz is an outstanding candidate, and will make an outstanding congressman. I agree with you completely on that point.

    You are, however, incorrect in designating DD and myself as “occasional malcontents:”

    * After Sestak won the 2006 primary against Lentz, he virtually ignored Lentz and the other PA House and Senate candidates running for office in the district. It’s common knowledge among candidates running lower down on the ticket in the district not to expect anything from the Sestak team. Heck, he didn’t even endorse Lentz until after the other candidates dropped out of the race, but yet called it the “biggest” endorsement he’s ever made.

    * I cannot understand how anyone who wants to keep this senate seat in blue territory could support what Sestak is doing. It simply doesn’t make sense. Money is scarce, and a tight primary challenge accomplishes NOTHING for the ISSUES that we care about, and for whose survival we need a Democratic majority.

    * Every politician has ambition. None of them would be in this business if they weren’t effused with that trait. HOWEVER, the ambition ceases to serve the public interest when it puts self over the needs of the constituency. THAT is what Sestak has done by running in this race, and wasting his 2008 warchest on a senate primary rather than a House general election.

    That is why, Bill Healy, I will no longer support Sestak, and why anyone with perspective in the 7th district and the state of Pennsylvania will abandon the notion that this man truly cares about anyone but himself.

  13. Get it RIGHT

    May 12th, 2010

    GB-

    I am with you brother, amen.

    You “Get it RIGHT” and I am 100% with you on that and the only problem is too many do not want to look at reality square in the face!

    Very well put….

  14. sick of it all

    May 12th, 2010

    Sestak and Lentz did not run a primary against each other in 2006…Lentz dropped out and focused on a State Rep race where he took out a 20sthin yr incumbent puppet of the delco repub machine while specter was helping republican candidates against Lentz and Sestak and governor rendell and every other dem on the ballot. some of the posters here are ignorant or stupid, or think the rest of us are.

  15. George Brendt

    May 12th, 2010

    Sick of it – I am well aware of the facts behind that 2006 primary. Nothing I posted nor intimated in that posting contradicts them. My remarks serve to remind everyone of how the Sestak team ignores and disregards the candidates running for seats lower-down on the ticket.

    Many in the county party find the Sestak team’s chronic behavior in this regard to be disgraceful and an affront to the team effort. It is yet one of many measures of how purely self-obsessed Sestak is.

  16. Freda

    May 12th, 2010

    People are excited about Williams and the article says that the polling firm hasn’t inlcuded a lot of people who voted in 2008. Because they are ommitting a lot of inner city voters they are underpolling Williams. He is a lot closer to Onorato than the poll indicates. There will be a good city turnout and Williams will win when the votes are counted Tuesday night.

  17. Matt M.

    May 12th, 2010

    Why do people think Joe Hoeffel’s campaign didn’t make it off the ground?

  18. Bob Brady Has never evr Lived in his District

    May 12th, 2010

    In Fact The US Constitution says you shall Not Live in the District that you represent So Joe Setak is Simply following the Law

  19. Joe Hoeffel Never Could Raise Money

    May 12th, 2010

    You have to Have a Ton of Money Now to Run for any Office Maybe Because Dayln Leach The Most Popular democrat In Mothgomery County Is Supporting D .O . For Governor Joe Is 2 Liberal He probably got that way From working for the Gay Molester Rep. Gerry Studds who was known for Grabbiing all the Male inturns He must have Turned Joe Out . Joe is way to Liberal for Pennsylvania He forgot Alabama is in the T in PA

  20. FH

    May 12th, 2010

    “He is forcing the Democratic Party to spend millions of much-needed funds for the general election in a primary race that serves NOBODY’S interests but Joe Sestak’s.”

    “HOWEVER, the ambition ceases to serve the public interest when it puts self over the needs of the constituency.”

    Well I’m sorry but Sestak is serving my interests…me and about 42-47% (depending on the poll you’re looking at) of my fellow democrats’ interest in not having Arlen Specter represent us. I mean how can you (and DD) make this argument with a straight face? Couldn’t you say that Arlen Specter cost the party those much needed funds by switching parties? If he had never switched, or he bowed our gracefully, there would have been no challenge (at least not for him…but the argument falls on its face there too because someone was going to challenge him or Sestak in either scenario).

    You fail to realize that when you say that you and DD and other Specter supporters do not represent the WHOLE of voting public. Sure, from your perpsective, its wasting money because how could anyone ever back anyone but specter…but try to see it from our perspective and maybe you might start to understand…I mean there are just so many democrats (myself included) who, even after carefully considering the issues, just cant get past his considerable voting baggage and the fact that he’s been a republican longer than I’ve been alive. I mean the truth is that Arlen Specter thought he could just walk through a Democratic primary… I mean why should we, the voters, actually decide whether or not he actually represents our values? The party establishment picked him, we should never question to the party leadership! All democrats are equal, however some are more equal than others! And yet, in the real world of issues and where we want the state/country to go, for many of us Sestak’s progressive record just appeals much more than Specter’s ENTIRE record. I mean the truth of the matter is that Arlen Specter is the same Arlen Specter if he has an R or a D next to his name…and thats a man I’ve voted against on the issues in the past and I would continue to vote against in the future…but thats just me…

  21. David Diano

    May 12th, 2010

    The only “district” Joe represents is himself. IN that sense (and that sense alone) he lives in his district.

  22. @Snarlin_Arlen

    May 12th, 2010

    I think the most important part of all this is that I have the support of Chaka Fattah and Michael Nutter. Nutter is the most popular mayor in a century and Fattah has done so little in the House that there is nothing for people to object to.

  23. Matt M.

    May 12th, 2010

    I wonder if the loser of next Tuesday’s primary will consider a third party run, a la Charlie Crist. Specter might have the funds to mount a solo bid, but I doubt Sestak could pull it off, given that he’s presently running for broke.

    But still…it’s an intriguing possibility. Especially for Pat Toomey.

  24. Bruce Bailey

    May 13th, 2010

    Matt, it might be intriguing, but it’s also impossible. PA state law forbids anyone who loses a primary to run for the same office as an independent. It’s called the Sore Loser Law. Next Wednesday, somebody is going to have to explain it to Arlen.

  25. sick of it all

    May 13th, 2010

    yeah…specter has done just such a great job of helping democratic candidates…by his own admssion he hasn’t voted for a democratic candidate since JFK…except for ED RENDELL…hmmm….but we are supposed to forgive Arlen and vote for him? I think not.

  26. suburban dem

    May 13th, 2010

    @George Brendt…I am intimately aware of many things including the truth behind the 2006 primary and also how and why elections in this county have gone how they have gone…stop looking to blame others like Sestak…and do not use you bluster to try to speak for many of the county dem party…you don’t.

  27. md

    May 13th, 2010

    Yeah, yeah, yeah… the black vote. Fact is nobody knows. It is the demographic most resistant to polling. It is over analyzed after elections but very hard to predict before. Black voters I know like it that way.

    Fact is nobody knows and Philadelphia black voters stopped voting for black candidates simply because they are black after Mayor Wilson Goode. Most famous case in point Mayor Nutter who did not garner a majority of the black vote and is still not highly regarded in the community according to recent polling.

    Sestak is an oddity to this community and he will NOT win this voting block in any way that matters that much I can gaurentee but whether black folks in Philly are exciting enough about Spector to honor him with turnout… now that’s where the fun starts! Can’t wait to see…

  28. md

    May 13th, 2010

    LOL…

    Sorry, corrections — “guarantee”
    and “excited enough about Specter to honor him with turnout”

    I should stop posting this late at night :-)

  29. David Diano

    May 13th, 2010

    Bruce-
    Explain it to Arlen, so he can explain it to Sestak? Just like Arlen had to explain to Sestak that the debate rules permitted notes? :-)

    sick-
    You talk a lot of smack for a gal with no name. Don’t be shocked if Sestak voted the same way. It’s a good bet that Sestak voted for Nixon, Reagan and Bush Sr.

    suburban dem-
    You are intimately aware? Please submit credentials: just your name will do, for a start

    md-
    Watch out with those “gaffes”. The Sestak drones will accuse you of dementia.

  30. HateSestak

    May 13th, 2010

    GB: You are one of countless 7th District denizens who have come to the realization that Sestak is a self-interested, self-serving, narcissistic charlatan. What causes has Sestak truly championed? What pivotal legislation has he implemented? Are the people are the 7th District better off now than they were prior to his ascension to office? There is a reason that Sestak has not been endorsed by any of the notable political actors, newspapers, interest groups, etc., in PA. The reason is simple: he has accomplished little, if anything, during his undistinguished, unremarkable tenure in office.

  31. HateSestak

    May 13th, 2010

    Matt M.: Independent bid by Sestak? Given his abysmal fundraising of late, one would think that would not be a viable option. On the other hand, running as an independent might keep law enforcement at bay for several more months…

  32. HateSestak

    May 13th, 2010

    Snarlin Arlen: Earlier, you maligned our nation’s first African-American President. Now, you are casting aspersions on two notable African-American office-holders. Tell me – are all Sestak flunkeys prejudiced and narrow-minded?

  33. Brett

    May 13th, 2010

    Go Anthony, the people of the downtodden will come to your aid, orange soda anyone?

  34. JIm F

    May 13th, 2010

    Diano=America Hater!

  35. md

    May 13th, 2010

    BTW

    One other note on the black vote in Philly (the topic of the article). People will support Tony Williams because he speaks to the issues people care about in and out the city. Therefore he will not only pick up black votes in Philly but in the suburbs and elsewhere and non-black votes all over the state. You heard it here first! Specter + Sestak- a nail biter but even Dave and HateSestak will have to agree that Sestak’s attack ad is brutally effective. The most demaging part is Specter’s statement when he says “re-elected” geez he sounds like a weasel of the worst order, like I said – brutal.

  36. David Diano

    May 13th, 2010

    Here’s the rest of clip of Specter from that Sestak ad:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fpw5KTvZKBI

  37. HateSestak

    May 13th, 2010

    “The White House’s unwillingness to clearly and emphatically deny Rep. Sestak’s allegations of criminal conduct leads me to conclude that his account is accurate, reliable and truthful,” Republican Congressman Issa said in a statement. Issa is clamoring for an investigation into unfounded allegations lodged against the incumbent Democratic President – allegations lodged by the self-serving, self-interested Joe Sestak. Not the actions of a true blue Democrat, in my estimation.

  38. bill healy

    May 13th, 2010

    What would you know about true blue Democrats,your a stooge for a true red Republican.

  39. Get it RIGHT

    May 13th, 2010

    It is very hard to determine who is a so called “True Blue Democrat for SESTAK” or a “TEABAGGER”…..

    They both have the same goal and both are causing a lot of collateral damage to the
    ENTIRE DEMOCRATIC MACHINE!

    There are some very, very stupid democrats out picking up for Sestak and I will say it a gain,

    There are some very, very stupid democrats out picking up for Sestak and I will say it a gain,

    There are some very, very stupid democrats out picking up for Sestak !

    Thank You….maybe it will sink in,
    but I doubt it !

  40. Nick

    May 13th, 2010

    Anthony WIlliams has as much a chance of being governor as Mickey Mouse.

  41. md

    May 13th, 2010

    Nick–

    Maybe so but you have to admit it was dull as dishwater before he got in. It is even more exciting than no-chance Sam Rohrer against Tom Corbett or absolutely-no-way Peg against Toomey… long shot candidates but still predictably boring.

    LOL

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