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Will the Jewish vote be secure for Dems in 2010?

The Jewish vote in Pennsylvania is relatively small, but enough to make a difference in close races. In 2008, more than 70 percent of Jews voted for Barack Obama, motivated by Obama’s overall strength but also by resistance to the McCain-Palin ticket’s perceived coziness with the religious right. Will the result be the same in 2010—or, for that matter, in 2012?

Reports of tension between the United States and Israel, along with President Obama’s general problems in the suburbs, have caused some people to doubt it. At a recent AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee) meeting held at a suburban Philadelphia synagogue, participants dutifully applauded Senator Arlen Specter and other mostly Democratic incumbents, who pledged support for Israel in more or less similar terms.

In the corridors, however, one heard an unusual amount of concern about the direction of the administration and its potential effect on the Jewish vote.

One factor limiting Jewish influence is the tendency for Jews to concentrate in districts, like the 2nd and 13th Congressional Districts, which normally go Democratic no matter what. The Jewish effect might therefore be greater statewide than in any individual swing district.

Specter, in particular, has done well with both Jewish voters and contributors. Will they show a similar enthusiasm this time around?

April 29, 2010 at 3:34 pm

--Michael Livingston

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