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Wagner says he’ll air TV ads, but how much can he afford?
PITTSBURGH—For months, Auditor General Jack Wagner has said he’ll have enough money to be competitive in the Democratic primary for governor. But seven weeks before the big day, his campaign had less than $700,000 in the bank, an amount that makes a sustained statewide advertising blitz almost impossible.
Now, five weeks before primary day, Wagner says a plan is in place to run TV ads across Pennsylvania, but he’s not saying how much he expects to spend or when he’ll go on the air. Campaign commercials have already been produced, but a decision on when to air them has not yet been made, according to a person close to the campaign.
“We have a plan,” Wagner told pa2010.com after rolling out a slew of union endorsements here Tuesday. “I’m not going to reveal that, but it’s worked in the past and we’re convinced it will work now. Will I be outspent? No doubt about it. But we’re going to focus on the issues that matter to people.
“On election day,” he added, “people will already know my name through good government and challenging the system.”
But there has been no public polling that shows Wagner with the kind of name recognition he may have hoped to enjoy after two successful statewide runs—a recent Quinnipiac University poll found that 73 percent of likely primary voters don’t know enough about him to have for an opinion. And political consultants who are versed in what it takes to buy that name recognition on TV say that Wagner simply doesn’t have enough. Though it can vary greatly depending on the nature of the buy, it typically costs about $500,000 per week to run ads in the expensive Philadelphia media market, and $1 million to be advertising on TV statewide.
Asked how much Wagner can afford with the money he has, David Dunphy, a Democratic political consultant not involved in the race, said simply, “not much.”
“If he’s avoiding Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, he can probably go up for two weeks in the rest of the state, outside of the major media markets,” Dunphy said. “But I don’t see how you effectively run a race avoiding the two major media markets.”
Two candidates in the four-way primary are already on the air: Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato and state Senator Anthony Williams (D-Philadelphia). A third, Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel, has even less money than Wagner, and is unlikely to advertise much at all.
For Wagner, the question may come down to whether his deep party support at the local level can overcome the deluge of advertising that Onorato already has throughout the state.
Elliot Curson, a longtime GOP ad man, said that Wagner might be able to overcome the spending deficit—if his ads are creative enough and resonate enough to turn heads.
“If he has commercials that are really unique and that really stand out, it will get attention and can go viral,” Curson said. “Everybody has the same commercials right now, they all look alike, they all sound alike.”
Senior campaign aides couldn’t be reached to elaborate on the campaign’s plans. But Wagner, as he always has, insisted that the right stands on the right issues would trump money and TV.
“I really believe the average citizen is locked into the fiscal issues they’re facing personally,” he said. “What will matter most is who will be talking about their problems and which message resonates with them.”
April 15, 2010 at 7:30 pm
--Michael Jones and Dan Hirschhorn
Tags: Anthony Williams, Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, Joe Hoeffel
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Wagner: he’ll air TV ads, but how much can he afford?… | GrassrootsPA
Apr 15th, 2010
[...] Wagner: he’ll air TV ads, but how much can he afford?… [...]
Brett
Apr 15th, 2010
I hate to say it, but for the first time since I have been blogging, I think despite some good endorsements, it will not be enough to overcome Onorato’s extensive television commercial coverage. The race will be as follows>
Onorato Wins, and so does Scot Conklin
Hoeffel comes in second
Wagner third
Williams fourth
Corbett beats Onorato in the fall
And I am a Democrat
Sorry to see, but this is a tough election and yet it seems a lot of people are still have not paid attention in the state of Pa.
The Senate race is getting more attention.
Lee Levan
Apr 15th, 2010
Perhaps Wagner can get a loan fron the Sestak campaign. Sestak doesn’t seem to be using his 5 million at the prsent time.
Telly
Apr 15th, 2010
Democrats need to finally realize that it’s either going to be Jack or Dan, and so everyone needs to pick sides, considering very seriously who has a better chance of winning in November and, most importantly, who would be the better Governor.
Reasonable people can choose differently between the two, but at least make the choice based on the substance and character of the men, not how much money they’ve raised or when they’re on TV.
DJ
Apr 15th, 2010
Dude got more votes than Obama in 08. He must know what he’s doing.
San Pedro
Apr 15th, 2010
He will buy a mil in his Vern Fonk style ads. Check youtube in case you don’t get it. remember his 08 ads, hahaha.
Molly Maguire
Apr 16th, 2010
Brett–what are you talking about? Conklin is not going to be the Dem LG candidate, it’s going to be Saidel, Saidel is already fielding the Party TPs against Corbett to get a jump on the general election while we wait for the top of the ticket to shake itself out. Saidel’s got the money, the staffing resources, the organizational support–bottom of the ticket is his.
Corbett will only win over the dead bodies of every hardi1orking Dem in the state–the Party is going to hammer away at him, hitting him hard on abusing his office on the frivolous healthcare lawsuit, plus even better for Dems–Corbett’s connection to the Orie sisters trainwreck that continues to unfold. He is a flawed candidate and potentially fatally compromised on these points, he deserves to be taken down and the Dems must do this–not to say we should take for granted the Republicans sometimes uncanny ability to hoodwink voters into voting against their own economic and social interests by using wedges issues and misinformation, whatever they can manipulate.
All we got to do to get voters to pay attention to the gov race and emphasize the import of it is to point to our neighbor to the South, the Commonwealth of Virginia and how it is regressing under the reign of Republican Bobby Reb McDonnell.
terrie m
Apr 16th, 2010
Remind me again. The guy with oodles of money won the mayor’s race in Philadelphia, right? No. Maybe it was the guy with the next biggest pot of money, right? No. Well, then it must have been the guy with the third largest pile of cash. Yes. That’s right. His name is Mayor Nutter.
Mr. Wiggles
Apr 16th, 2010
http://www.rockthecapital.org/node/225
Good article on Saidel and his “pay to play” mentality, which is EXACTLY what the Dems dont need. He and onorato could use that as their campaign slogan perhaps?
Woman Voter
Apr 16th, 2010
The Republicans would much prefer Onorato over Wagner.
STEELBLITZ1
Apr 16th, 2010
Mr. Wiggles
You are onto something Onorato-Saidel “pay to play”
Woman Voter
Apr 16th, 2010
To clarify: the Republicans would much prefer Onorato as an opponent. Wagner will be much harder for them to defeat.
DeDems
Apr 17th, 2010
I don’t know what it is about Onorato but he creeps me out. He seems to slick and reminds me of Fast Eddie but from the west.
I know them all, Wagner, Hoeffel and Onorato, and while Hoeffel is a nice guy, Jack Wagner is true statesman. Onorato seems all about his own self interest and trying to buy the primary election. I’m afraid that the skeletons in his clostridium are still waiting to be exposed.
One other disappointment…with about 400 AFSCME employees under Jack Wagner as Auditor General, they chose not to endorse for governor. I am truly appalled at the spinelessness of AFSCME in not supporting someone who has always supported their union, not just in words but in actions. Pitiful!
STEELBLITZ1
Apr 17th, 2010
Wow, you are right thats poor!
Brett
Apr 18th, 2010
Sorry Wagner still loses to Onorato, campaign manager is too cautious and wimpy.